Fed Rates · resolved market
Will the 10-year treasury yield hit 4.5% by March 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x833dba0dcc4d1c4f6791a5e569107894050cfdb5e903c953d3f732726a3da4b0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $70,934
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $56,623
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $70,934 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 83 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd1ee…a8aebacked Yes | 10c | 4,813$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$480.24 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7a3…e60abacked Yes | 7c | 4,072$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$287.84 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | +104.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a3…203abacked Yes | 6c | 2,922$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.13 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.27per pick | 23cpaid | +291.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c55…dbb9backed Yes | 10c | 2,314$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.29 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -73.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f7d…4e63backed Yes | 6c | 2,181$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.74 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38d8…ea7cbacked Yes | 19c | 2,090$394 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$394.19 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +39.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6810…38a3backed Yes | 21c | 1,701$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$359.88 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e01…63bebacked Yes | 19c | 1,375$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261.15 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | +3.8wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5950…8c48backed Yes | 10c | 1,049$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.38 | 46 | 17.4%8 W · 38 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94b0…9d34backed Yes | 1c | 1,025$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.63 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x365f…3684backed Yes | 16c | 1,023$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.62 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 21cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204d…6890backed Yes | 23c | 838.88$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0cc7…7349backed Yes | 16c | 830.53$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4745…5916backed Yes | 2c | 703$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.36 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2015…3fbfbacked Yes | 4c | 663.12$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.7 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 15cpaid | -89.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8735…46e5backed Yes | 2c | 656.65$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.83 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 4cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa53b…4021backed Yes | 9c | 649.43$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.76 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 24cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd8…9a1cbacked Yes | 10c | 629.01$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.96 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 46cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf8c…18fdbacked Yes | 17c | 592.32$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.62 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x00af…42f7backed Yes | 2c | 567.95$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.23 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 11c | 514.19$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.08 | 318 | 7.2%23 W · 295 L | -11.1wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -75%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes | 4c | 508.15$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.41 | 25 | 4%1 W · 24 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -77%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8030…7b74backed Yes | 4c | 499.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -67.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90e7…814cbacked Yes | 2c | 479$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c6…b50bbacked Yes | 18c | 442.72$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.69 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.19per pick | 33cpaid | -77.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes | 7c | 441.78$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.86 | 22 | 4.5%1 W · 21 L | -2.6wins | -0.12per pick | 16cpaid | -81.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 11c | 427.45$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.59 | 66 | 4.5%3 W · 63 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 10cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9a67…af26backed Yes | 7c | 412.5$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +2.8wins | +0.28per pick | 52cpaid | +62.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 8c | 407.7$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.46 | 72 | 2.8%2 W · 70 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc93c…52f1backed Yes | 5c | 385.13$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.87 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd493…7f04backed Yes | 10c | 350$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 30 | 3.3%1 W · 29 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffd…a637backed Yes | 19c | 310$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.09 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…80d9backed Yes | 4c | 304.28$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.91 | 36 | 2.8%1 W · 35 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -74.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc2…0727backed Yes | 10c | 300$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 30 | 3.3%1 W · 29 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 5c | 299.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 64 | 3.1%2 W · 62 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 3cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 7c | 266$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.58 | 48 | 10.4%5 W · 43 L | -4.2wins | -0.09per pick | 19cpaid | -74.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 4c | 250$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +1.5wins | +0.12per pick | 19cpaid | +64.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked Yes | 14c | 248.48$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.47 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes | 6c | 220.91$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.19 | 61 | 1.6%1 W · 60 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 5cpaid | -96.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Yes | 18c | 211.52$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.93 | 103 | 24.3%25 W · 78 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes | 11c | 209$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.99 | 45 | 2.2%1 W · 44 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 7cpaid | -87.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5081…a309backed Yes | 10c | 200$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 32 | 3.1%1 W · 31 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1df…7d7ebacked Yes | 15c | 200$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed Yes | 14c | 180$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.6 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6717…1a83backed Yes | 17c | 180$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 18cpaid | +171.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…5d95backed Yes | 13c | 164.33$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.49 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9c1…e713backed Yes | 11c | 161.1$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.18 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38a4…4ef2backed Yes | 17c | 155.47$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.94 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f9…e61cbacked Yes | 17c | 150.55$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 8c | 150$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 59 | 1.7%1 W · 58 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -73.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 10c | 149.56$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.96 | 107 | 13.1%14 W · 93 L | -8.2wins | -0.08per pick | 21cpaid | -52.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1d9f…c9c6backed Yes | 7c | 147.69$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7810…b011backed Yes | 14c | 140.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf520…af79backed Yes | 16c | 140.18$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6cb…ec61backed Yes | 11c | 124.7$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a66…48c7backed Yes | 37c | 108.83$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe23d…93a4backed Yes | 22c | 104.78$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.43 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e73…6697backed Yes | 28c | 104.4$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.72 | 57 | 47.4%27 W · 30 L | +4.6wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf8f2…96cfbacked Yes | 14c | 101.8$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x509c…5b0cbacked Yes | 25c | 100.31$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf2…887dbacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 34 | 5.9%2 W · 32 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d16…9f6cbacked Yes | 34c | 100$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 38 | 5.3%2 W · 36 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a74…49e7backed Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.18per pick | 20cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6c1d…ad0bbacked Yes | 21c | 94.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6735…f5b7backed No | 62c | 79$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.36 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x25b9…3058backed Yes | 16c | 75.9$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.05 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 14cpaid | +56.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f85…8693backed Yes | 27c | 75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.1 | 29 | 6.9%2 W · 27 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 12cpaid | -84.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa58c…a1e2backed Yes | 29c | 68.7$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10af…9bc0backed No | 64c | 62.97$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.97 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -68%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 80c | 62.17$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.43 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7db2…1c02backed Yes | 35c | 56.81$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaae5…d6f9backed Yes | 23c | 52$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x878d…1a9bbacked No | 77c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -74%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc46…4fb8backed No | 72c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +2.7wins | +0.33per pick | 54cpaid | +204.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xaf15…bdaebacked No | 73c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.18per pick | 52cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 62c | 39.66$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.96 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…c364backed Yes | 33c | 32.57$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.77 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1719…5ceabacked No | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 35c | 29$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.11 | 138 | 29.7%41 W · 97 L | -13.4wins | -0.10per pick | 39cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcf27…f35fbacked No | 71c | 19.68$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.68 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfe0…192abacked No | 80c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d58…462dbacked No | 70c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the 10-year treasury yield hit 4.5% by March 31?this page
- Will the 10-year treasury yield hit 4.3% by March 31?Yes won
- Will the 10-year treasury yield hit 4.4% by March 31?Yes won
- Will the 10-year treasury yield hit 4.6% by March 31?No won
- Will the 10-year treasury yield hit 4.8% by March 31?No won
- Will the 10-year treasury yield hit 5.0% by March 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.