Fed Rates · resolved market
Will the 10-year treasury yield hit 4.6% by March 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x11401c4fb817bc9e8a0952ef261b34a9d7319b97cb9041066295d9ab6b071e70
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,445
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,710
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,445 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd1ee…a8aebacked Yes | 7c | 5,544$374 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$374 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6810…38a3backed Yes | 8c | 1,815$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.18 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e01…63bebacked Yes | 10c | 1,615$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.45 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | +3.8wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc30c…6509backed Yes | 2c | 1,267$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.4 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.26per pick | 46cpaid | +218.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1958…310bbacked Yes | 4c | 896$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.64 | 24 | 8.3%2 W · 22 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed Yes | 3c | 763.19$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.18 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 11cpaid | +171.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes | 2c | 659.47$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.45 | 25 | 4%1 W · 24 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -77%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1106…ffa0backed Yes | 3c | 614.71$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.35 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43fe…5b9fbacked Yes | 2c | 554.89$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.53 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 2cpaid | +34.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a3…203abacked Yes | 3c | 475.38$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.25 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.27per pick | 23cpaid | +291.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 5c | 446.05$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.35 | 66 | 4.5%3 W · 63 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 10cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff7c…b233backed Yes | 4c | 376.83$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.92 | 31 | 9.7%3 W · 28 L | -3.5wins | -0.11per pick | 21cpaid | -78.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 6c | 350.26$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.2 | 318 | 7.2%23 W · 295 L | -11.1wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -75%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…c364backed Yes | 5c | 342.56$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.02 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9c1…e713backed Yes | 6c | 336.93$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.18 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 6c | 328.5$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.21 | 72 | 2.8%2 W · 70 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99b1…e4efbacked Yes | 5c | 320$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.25 | 38 | 13.2%5 W · 33 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8900…95f3backed Yes | 10c | 238.63$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd493…7f04backed Yes | 8c | 200$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 30 | 3.3%1 W · 29 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc2…0727backed Yes | 8c | 200$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 30 | 3.3%1 W · 29 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b78…f26dbacked Yes | 22c | 178.77$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6735…f5b7backed No | 63c | 135$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.23 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…e8f8backed Yes | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 42 | 50%21 W · 21 L | +4.4wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 76c | 83$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.92 | 138 | 29.7%41 W · 97 L | -13.4wins | -0.10per pick | 39cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5527…4e68backed Yes | 23c | 55.6$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.7 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -69.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4806…1673backed Yes | 20c | 55$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9551…8c45backed No | 78c | 45$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.04 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 73cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed8…93d4backed No | 75c | 40.6$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.15 | 70 | 45.7%32 W · 38 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the 10-year treasury yield hit 4.6% by March 31?this page
- Will the 10-year treasury yield hit 4.3% by March 31?Yes won
- Will the 10-year treasury yield hit 4.4% by March 31?Yes won
- Will the 10-year treasury yield hit 4.5% by March 31?No won
- Will the 10-year treasury yield hit 4.8% by March 31?No won
- Will the 10-year treasury yield hit 5.0% by March 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.