World Politics · resolved market
Will Hannah Spencer win the Gorton and Denton by-election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8333b9047c3c1061eb38dcee3d3f1101ec54bf639e4bd272c3cc896f2cb2066b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $423,223
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $461,499
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $423,223 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 447 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7177…ddefbacked Yes | 72c | 42,866$30,919 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,946.52 | 44 | 59.1%26 W · 18 L | +6.3wins | +0.14per pick | 45cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked No | 28c | 42,673$12,105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,104.75 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85b8…6b6abacked No | 32c | 30,619$9,886 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,885.81 | 55 | 36.4%20 W · 35 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5462…eed6backed Yes | 67c | 22,828$15,194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,633.1 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04b9…79e0backed Yes | 70c | 15,910$11,135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,774.9 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +2.7wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe0d9…524cbacked No | 34c | 11,457$3,921 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,920.7 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x09bb…f8b1backed Yes | 61c | 10,827$6,590 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,236.77 | 85 | 55.3%47 W · 38 L | +6.6wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd64e…5516backed Yes | 67c | 9,000$6,030 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,969.98 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f9…1245backed Yes | 67c | 8,764$5,904 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,859.76 | 180 | 36.7%66 W · 114 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d5b…022dbacked No | 29c | 8,341$2,387 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,386.63 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 31cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dd6…f5f4backed Yes | 78c | 8,326$6,519 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,807.28 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | -5.3wins | -0.12per pick | 58cpaid | -28%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3106…d672backed Yes | 68c | 8,228$5,577 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,651.61 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +2.8wins | +0.16per pick | 29cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8e33…5825backed No | 30c | 7,700$2,289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,288.81 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2375…691fbacked Yes | 74c | 6,972$5,192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,780.4 | 50 | 52%26 W · 24 L | +5.9wins | +0.12per pick | 40cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f6…5817backed Yes | 66c | 6,191$4,059 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,131.66 | 253 | 37.2%94 W · 159 L | +8.0wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x944e…8c94backed Yes | 65c | 6,015$3,940 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,075.46 | 142 | 40.8%58 W · 84 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b3…501cbacked Yes | 69c | 5,919$4,070 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,849.77 | 67 | 37.3%25 W · 42 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e7a…1eecbacked No | 4c | 5,462$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.87 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -1.9wins | -0.12per pick | 24cpaid | -77.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x414b…0d3fbacked Yes | 65c | 5,327$3,459 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,867.51 | 133 | 34.6%46 W · 87 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4728…6426backed Yes | 68c | 5,000$3,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,600 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 43cpaid | +59.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe899…0899backed Yes | 68c | 5,000$3,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,599.98 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.23per pick | 65cpaid | +42.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed No | 31c | 4,558$1,399 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,399.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6291…cc47backed Yes | 76c | 4,165$3,184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$981.04 | 284 | 34.2%97 W · 187 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c6…44e8backed No | 32c | 3,942$1,251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,251.5 | 152 | 30.3%46 W · 106 L | -18.7wins | -0.12per pick | 43cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1966…25c0backed No | 25c | 3,811$968 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$967.67 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -12%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9d…adc0backed Yes | 67c | 3,242$2,167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,074.86 | 134 | 44.8%60 W · 74 L | +17.1wins | +0.13per pick | 32cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xdf70…5e92backed No | 32c | 3,000$958 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$957.93 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +61.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a57…14a1backed Yes | 68c | 2,948$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$948.31 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8365…e9a6backed No | 53c | 2,946$1,551 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,551.31 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | -3.5wins | -0.10per pick | 36cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x48a5…0f2dbacked No | 33c | 2,648$866 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$865.92 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9733…f034backed No | 9c | 2,504$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.39 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +3.0wins | +0.11per pick | 32cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf7…fbeabacked Yes | 69c | 2,465$1,693 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$771.83 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcbab…9a8abacked Yes | 65c | 2,446$1,589 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$857.56 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +2.1wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +60.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5efb…55a1backed Yes | 62c | 2,301$1,424 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$877.2 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7525…cde1backed Yes | 66c | 2,242$1,480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$762.35 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x629b…995abacked Yes | 64c | 2,222$1,422 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$799.92 | 432 | 43.1%186 W · 246 L | +29.2wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x23e0…66b6backed No | 36c | 2,196$791 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$790.61 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf975…4354backed Yes | 68c | 2,187$1,487 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$699.8 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +100.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1a4…a4babacked No | 1c | 2,169$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.18 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbdbb…084ebacked No | 30c | 2,050$615 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$615 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -62.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c7b…5485backed No | 32c | 2,008$643 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$642.65 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | +3.0wins | +0.11per pick | 30cpaid | +39.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3328…e6b8backed Yes | 70c | 2,000$1,393 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$607.42 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +96.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf769…0114backed No | 30c | 2,000$590 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$589.98 | 53 | 30.2%16 W · 37 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17ed…c087backed No | 34c | 1,896$645 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$644.69 | 86 | 41.9%36 W · 50 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -23%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe605…ac5fbacked No | 27c | 1,767$475 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$475 | 67 | 41.8%28 W · 39 L | +8.1wins | +0.12per pick | 30cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0a16…a342backed No | 32c | 1,568$505 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$505 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7905…a886backed No | 24c | 1,492$355 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$354.71 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 17cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde6f…4a7bbacked Yes | 71c | 1,330$944 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$385.7 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd2d3…9af1backed Yes | 69c | 1,308$898 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$409.25 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 58cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09e4…93aabacked No | 39c | 1,288$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.15per pick | 51cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 65c | 1,279$832 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$447.52 | 884 | 48.5%429 W · 455 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39a5…87f2backed Yes | 68c | 1,278$864 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$413.96 | 45 | 44.4%20 W · 25 L | +3.6wins | +0.08per pick | 36cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb7e9…bdacbacked Yes | 68c | 1,270$857 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$412.69 | 77 | 61%47 W · 30 L | +5.4wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x40f7…1f5ebacked Yes | 68c | 1,266$861 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$405.16 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ac5…6a3dbacked Yes | 50c | 1,172$585 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$587.11 | 52 | 36.5%19 W · 33 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -23%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f29…0760backed Yes | 68c | 1,100$745 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$354.99 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 63cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b8e…aab0backed Yes | 73c | 1,079$792 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$286.55 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +58.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc990…6a32backed No | 33c | 1,034$341 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$341.18 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x492e…9195backed Yes | 62c | 1,003$618 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$385.76 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9aeb…2729backed No | 38c | 1,000$380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$380 | 51 | 45.1%23 W · 28 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -19%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb6f…25f0backed Yes | 68c | 1,000$680 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$320 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | +3.0wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe598…a0a8backed No | 28c | 1,000$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8cb4…b997backed No | 35c | 1,000$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x629c…6c01backed Yes | 68c | 1,000$680 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$320 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e32…535bbacked Yes | 69c | 999.98$686 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$313.49 | 284 | 30.3%86 W · 198 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 35c | 962.6$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340.31 | 322 | 55%177 W · 145 L | +14.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 63c | 932.49$583 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$349.3 | 347 | 26.8%93 W · 254 L | -12.3wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93a0…74debacked Yes | 70c | 930.78$655 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275.92 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +55.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c76…06acbacked Yes | 66c | 900$596 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$304.5 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d62…27e0backed Yes | 64c | 900$576 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$324 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97c7…37adbacked Yes | 71c | 840$596 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$243.6 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +52.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…e231backed No | 36c | 831.11$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -55.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf710…edc9backed No | 21c | 819.84$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.32 | 60 | 31.7%19 W · 41 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb8…d906backed No | 13c | 813.65$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.45 | 123 | 45.5%56 W · 67 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa800…bd7abacked No | 12c | 801.28$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -3.4wins | -0.21per pick | 40cpaid | -73.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 69c | 799.99$548 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252 | 549 | 34.6%190 W · 359 L | -37.0wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 37c | 760.11$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$278 | 260 | 52.3%136 W · 124 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb9…7b80backed Yes | 68c | 749.97$511 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238.49 | 93 | 48.4%45 W · 48 L | +8.1wins | +0.09per pick | 40cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd6f8…2d1dbacked Yes | 70c | 749.23$523 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.36 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -3.0wins | -0.30per pick | 40cpaid | -85.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xba3c…2e4ebacked Yes | 67c | 740.23$499 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$241.18 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 62cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ffc…8236backed Yes | 40c | 706.41$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$421.25 | 38 | 28.9%11 W · 27 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9457…146bbacked No | 33c | 674.67$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.64 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 16c | 661.89$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.31 | 367 | 42.5%156 W · 211 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked No | 52c | 646.8$333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$333.48 | 89 | 43.8%39 W · 50 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 74c | 627.94$468 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.43 | 182 | 46.2%84 W · 98 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa6a…21c3backed No | 28c | 613$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.64 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 41cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2b…af20backed Yes | 75c | 600$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 40 | 32.5%13 W · 27 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa45c…1d10backed Yes | 64c | 600$386 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.69 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0327…5e15backed No | 29c | 599.99$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.12per pick | 43cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf4…59b4backed No | 19c | 588.53$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.62 | 74 | 43.2%32 W · 42 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -29%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92e5…efeebacked Yes | 65c | 586.98$382 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.44 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | +3.6wins | +0.12per pick | 43cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2956…d31bbacked No | 31c | 584.14$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.58 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10d7…eb3bbacked No | 52c | 561.89$293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$293.34 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee21…3721backed No | 3c | 547.32$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.42 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -2.2wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc0af…0289backed Yes | 71c | 546.48$388 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.48 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0f5…b750backed Yes | 70c | 540$378 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed No | 49c | 538.83$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265.98 | 170 | 37.6%64 W · 106 L | +5.2wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xadbd…93f9backed No | 30c | 523$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.9 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca43…9d5cbacked Yes | 70c | 516.32$360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.91 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x007c…82fdbacked Yes | 64c | 515.62$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.62 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 69cpaid | +46.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Hannah Spencer win the Gorton and Denton by-election?this page
- Will Amanda Gardner – Green Party win the Gorton and Denton by-election?No won
- Will Andy Burnham – Labour win the Gorton and Denton by-election?No won
- Will Angeliki Stogia - Labour win the Gorton and Denton by-election?No won
- Will Bev Craig – Reform win the Gorton and Denton by-election?No won
- Will Matt Goodwin – Reform win the Gorton and Denton by-election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.