World Politics · resolved market
Will Angeliki Stogia - Labour win the Gorton and Denton by-election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0cc861b2ed1539c7f9e0b56ee2bb9cd7b05f43c09d5552503c4d6aaac651d249
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $226,440
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $202,442
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $226,440 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 124 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x85b8…6b6abacked Yes | 8c | 9,016$739 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$739.04 | 55 | 36.4%20 W · 35 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56c9…afe7backed Yes | 17c | 7,750$1,300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,300 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b24…2605backed Yes | 23c | 7,454$1,700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,700 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6291…cc47backed Yes | 2c | 6,516$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.67 | 284 | 34.2%97 W · 187 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f6…5817backed Yes | 8c | 4,500$337 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$337.5 | 253 | 37.2%94 W · 159 L | +8.0wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1966…25c0backed Yes | 9c | 4,123$368 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$368.21 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -12%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 3c | 3,785$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.66 | 380 | 23.9%91 W · 289 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 11c | 3,591$385 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$384.82 | 688 | 3.6%25 W · 663 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c7b…5485backed Yes | 9c | 3,563$304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$304.04 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | +3.0wins | +0.11per pick | 30cpaid | +39.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc990…6a32backed Yes | 14c | 3,444$499 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.38 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb760…ccd7backed Yes | 11c | 3,384$359 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$359.06 | 49 | 40.8%20 W · 29 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x23e0…66b6backed Yes | 16c | 3,281$525 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$524.54 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1970…398dbacked Yes | 10c | 2,555$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255.6 | 62 | 35.5%22 W · 40 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2cbe…25bcbacked Yes | 2c | 2,554$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -37%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x414b…0d3fbacked Yes | 12c | 2,530$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.99 | 133 | 34.6%46 W · 87 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60cc…f23fbacked Yes | 11c | 2,500$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275 | 182 | 14.8%27 W · 155 L | +11.4wins | +0.06per pick | 9cpaid | +218.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e4…471abacked Yes | 6c | 2,496$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.27 | 150 | 22.7%34 W · 116 L | +8.6wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +43%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc9af…de47backed Yes | 10c | 2,483$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.85 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb749…2a64backed Yes | 11c | 2,203$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.38 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.14per pick | 25cpaid | -84%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…e231backed Yes | 9c | 2,166$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -55.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc01f…cd8ebacked Yes | 12c | 2,152$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.57 | 70 | 27.1%19 W · 51 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5677…2ce9backed Yes | 12c | 2,134$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.69 | 32 | 21.9%7 W · 25 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 8c | 2,070$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.85 | 234 | 4.3%10 W · 224 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e1e…c5e3backed Yes | 11c | 2,046$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.7wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xed60…8735backed Yes | 9c | 2,029$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.9 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2110…5850backed Yes | 12c | 2,007$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.08 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Yes | 10c | 1,994$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.81 | 73 | 17.8%13 W · 60 L | -4.9wins | -0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -60.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes | 9c | 1,968$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.58 | 476 | 6.5%31 W · 445 L | -8.9wins | -0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Yes | 9c | 1,936$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.36 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ac5…6a3dbacked Yes | 14c | 1,892$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$267.84 | 52 | 36.5%19 W · 33 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -23%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e33…5825backed Yes | 9c | 1,673$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.52 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2956…d31bbacked Yes | 10c | 1,586$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.47 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe605…ac5fbacked Yes | 17c | 1,511$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 67 | 41.8%28 W · 39 L | +8.1wins | +0.12per pick | 30cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d7…715dbacked Yes | 7c | 1,481$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.02 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e60…ae42backed Yes | 14c | 1,450$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.9 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -2.5wins | -0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -79.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 10c | 1,409$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.01 | 563 | 14.6%82 W · 481 L | -39.3wins | -0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x82a7…9ea8backed Yes | 17c | 1,315$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.74 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +2.0wins | +0.23per pick | 33cpaid | +37.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4999…cc96backed Yes | 8c | 1,259$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 6c | 1,248$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.94 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 8c | 1,231$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.98 | 254 | 3.5%9 W · 245 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b9…b836backed Yes | 12c | 1,200$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144 | 82 | 37.8%31 W · 51 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x60fd…89a9backed Yes | 8c | 1,100$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.15 | 135 | 7.4%10 W · 125 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 5cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x76e9…87a4backed Yes | 15c | 1,019$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbad2…5296backed Yes | 8c | 1,012$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.25 | 117 | 41%48 W · 69 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa455…9f62backed Yes | 7c | 1,008$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04b9…79e0backed Yes | 14c | 1,000$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +2.7wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9593…d643backed Yes | 8c | 1,000$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b28…5980backed Yes | 13c | 994.12$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.74 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd64…3083backed Yes | 10c | 897.36$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88d9…fdd5backed Yes | 11c | 875.92$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe29a…c56fbacked Yes | 8c | 800$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.07 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d5b…022dbacked Yes | 9c | 800$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.65 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 31cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99df…b59abacked Yes | 15c | 799.98$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x629b…995abacked Yes | 14c | 776.45$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.27 | 432 | 43.1%186 W · 246 L | +29.2wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0e32…535bbacked Yes | 11c | 750$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.1 | 284 | 30.3%86 W · 198 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6041…0432backed Yes | 13c | 736.51$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.37 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed Yes | 9c | 733.78$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.1 | 115 | 2.6%3 W · 112 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -47%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x277b…f52cbacked Yes | 14c | 730.15$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -31%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf710…edc9backed Yes | 9c | 724.07$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.8 | 60 | 31.7%19 W · 41 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b17…51b1backed Yes | 10c | 717.4$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.01 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -58.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf769…0114backed Yes | 8c | 711.03$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.28 | 53 | 30.2%16 W · 37 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93b3…df11backed Yes | 14c | 670.06$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.91 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16cb…7edbbacked Yes | 13c | 653.49$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7617…dceabacked Yes | 11c | 643.88$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.91 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb59f…4a98backed Yes | 14c | 630.78$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -1.9wins | -0.13per pick | 28cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2830…2676backed Yes | 17c | 603.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…e8f8backed Yes | 7c | 600.67$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.25 | 133 | 43.6%58 W · 75 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 10c | 564.2$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 347 | 26.8%93 W · 254 L | -12.3wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb918…a312backed Yes | 11c | 539.15$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d5f…634dbacked Yes | 14c | 516.32$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.57 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ee8…1b93backed Yes | 5c | 500$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x03c8…0e01backed Yes | 8c | 500$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.83 | 37 | 21.6%8 W · 29 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf2…887dbacked Yes | 8c | 499.99$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.4 | 80 | 3.8%3 W · 77 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed10…45ebbacked Yes | 10c | 489.48$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 8c | 486.99$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.86 | 241 | 10.8%26 W · 215 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -34%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb125…bce0backed Yes | 12c | 474.57$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.51 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +1.5wins | +0.11per pick | 32cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc77b…a526backed Yes | 16c | 469.89$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.07 | 76 | 38.2%29 W · 47 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x92e5…efeebacked Yes | 8c | 459.02$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.34 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | +3.6wins | +0.12per pick | 43cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x551a…5d1dbacked Yes | 11c | 454.33$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.25 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bdd…31acbacked Yes | 9c | 424.49$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9868…907ebacked Yes | 9c | 397.98$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.25 | 37 | 18.9%7 W · 30 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -50.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91c9…3d43backed Yes | 13c | 391.02$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -27%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fee…c80bbacked Yes | 4c | 383.91$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.97 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b5a…2e45backed Yes | 17c | 358.3$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb682…be94backed Yes | 15c | 340.73$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c2d…64bfbacked Yes | 15c | 338.37$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.14per pick | 30cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 11c | 322.73$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.93 | 182 | 46.2%84 W · 98 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f39…634abacked Yes | 14c | 303.56$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -18%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f43…65fdbacked Yes | 8c | 300$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 203 | 25.6%52 W · 151 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5081…a309backed Yes | 8c | 299.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.1 | 80 | 6.3%5 W · 75 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb9…7b80backed Yes | 11c | 299.96$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.7 | 93 | 48.4%45 W · 48 L | +8.1wins | +0.09per pick | 40cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcff1…f8debacked Yes | 15c | 273.9$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -71.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x74f7…b102backed Yes | 13c | 260$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.97 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 20cpaid | +79.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x462c…53bfbacked Yes | 11c | 233.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x283f…7aabbacked Yes | 19c | 232.05$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x55fc…132ebacked Yes | 14c | 217.11$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9121…83b7backed Yes | 7c | 216.7$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 10cpaid | +46.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x542f…1dc3backed Yes | 14c | 210$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.4 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7022…f64ebacked Yes | 11c | 209.68$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.79 | 58 | 37.9%22 W · 36 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 211 | 7.1%15 W · 196 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Angeliki Stogia - Labour win the Gorton and Denton by-election?this page
- Will Amanda Gardner – Green Party win the Gorton and Denton by-election?No won
- Will Andy Burnham – Labour win the Gorton and Denton by-election?No won
- Will Bev Craig – Reform win the Gorton and Denton by-election?No won
- Will Hannah Spencer win the Gorton and Denton by-election?Yes won
- Will Matt Goodwin – Reform win the Gorton and Denton by-election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.