World Politics · resolved market
Will Matt Goodwin – Reform win the Gorton and Denton by-election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc326c9da546795d5056c894e298b1699b1679e446d651d7ec1b77cb61da1834f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $177,291
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $171,998
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $177,291 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 263 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Yes | 20c | 9,523$1,891 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,891.3 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f6…5817backed No | 78c | 9,049$7,019 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,030.29 | 253 | 37.2%94 W · 159 L | +8.0wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b24…2605backed Yes | 25c | 7,306$1,800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,800 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed Yes | 25c | 6,152$1,527 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,526.93 | 170 | 37.6%64 W · 106 L | +5.2wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56c9…afe7backed Yes | 24c | 5,879$1,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,400 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…5a82backed Yes | 22c | 4,700$1,014 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,013.98 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ac5…6a3dbacked Yes | 33c | 4,409$1,448 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,448.5 | 52 | 36.5%19 W · 33 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -23%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1966…25c0backed Yes | 12c | 4,288$514 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$514.39 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -12%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb760…ccd7backed Yes | 30c | 3,774$1,130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,130.3 | 49 | 40.8%20 W · 29 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x944e…8c94backed No | 77c | 3,626$2,799 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$827.73 | 142 | 40.8%58 W · 84 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e32…535bbacked No | 80c | 3,595$2,874 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$720.72 | 284 | 30.3%86 W · 198 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf769…0114backed Yes | 19c | 3,197$599 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$599.04 | 53 | 30.2%16 W · 37 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x926c…a86bbacked Yes | 29c | 3,115$903 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$903 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b0c…6de1backed Yes | 42c | 2,791$1,178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,178 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9af…de47backed Yes | 22c | 2,641$570 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$570.48 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93c4…dca6backed Yes | 21c | 2,509$522 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$521.92 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d62…27e0backed No | 77c | 2,500$1,917 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$582.99 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa03…2927backed Yes | 22c | 2,494$559 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$558.55 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x551a…5d1dbacked Yes | 22c | 2,370$518 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$518.26 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9733…f034backed Yes | 9c | 2,356$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.95 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +3.0wins | +0.11per pick | 32cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6aa1…36b4backed Yes | 46c | 2,158$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01e5…7984backed Yes | 23c | 2,152$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed No | 75c | 2,140$1,595 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$544.52 | 73 | 17.8%13 W · 60 L | -4.9wins | -0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -60.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf42f…a6a7backed No | 77c | 1,707$1,313 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$394 | 197 | 42.6%84 W · 113 L | +7.3wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8af8…e723backed Yes | 23c | 1,577$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360.14 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7b0…d650backed No | 79c | 1,565$1,228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$336.33 | 75 | 70.7%53 W · 22 L | +5.1wins | +0.07per pick | 64cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb046…857cbacked Yes | 14c | 1,552$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.67 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 24cpaid | -76.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85b8…6b6abacked Yes | 5c | 1,495$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.03 | 55 | 36.4%20 W · 35 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f9…1245backed No | 78c | 1,420$1,109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$310.95 | 180 | 36.7%66 W · 114 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x431d…8fdebacked Yes | 22c | 1,300$281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$281 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -64.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6291…cc47backed Yes | 14c | 1,280$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.33 | 284 | 34.2%97 W · 187 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2375…691fbacked Yes | 17c | 1,272$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.99 | 50 | 52%26 W · 24 L | +5.9wins | +0.12per pick | 40cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ca…4ac0backed No | 72c | 1,265$906 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$359.09 | 41 | 75.6%31 W · 10 L | +2.9wins | +0.07per pick | 69cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 23c | 1,204$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277.54 | 347 | 26.8%93 W · 254 L | -12.3wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x60cc…f23fbacked No | 54c | 1,195$640 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$554.65 | 182 | 14.8%27 W · 155 L | +11.4wins | +0.06per pick | 9cpaid | +218.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5677…2ce9backed Yes | 19c | 1,114$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.93 | 32 | 21.9%7 W · 25 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4be5…c1b3backed Yes | 38c | 1,000$380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$380 | 78 | 28.2%22 W · 56 L | -3.7wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdee0…d663backed Yes | 20c | 996.55$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.31 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked No | 69c | 996.45$687 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$309.41 | 89 | 43.8%39 W · 50 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97c2…55d6backed No | 69c | 955.73$662 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$294.21 | 38 | 73.7%28 W · 10 L | +3.5wins | +0.09per pick | 65cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2956…d31bbacked Yes | 21c | 953.94$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.44 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x131b…8065backed Yes | 38c | 886.06$334 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$334.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a4c…532bbacked Yes | 19c | 870$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.2 | 55 | 21.8%12 W · 43 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa52f…8897backed Yes | 20c | 859.3$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.86 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | +63.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 75c | 832.2$627 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.37 | 884 | 48.5%429 W · 455 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x76e9…87a4backed Yes | 20c | 752.55$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.51 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8dbb…f017backed Yes | 33c | 727.27$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e33…5825backed Yes | 21c | 717.61$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.52 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2110…5850backed No | 59c | 700$413 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$287 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 70c | 672.54$470 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.24 | 322 | 55%177 W · 145 L | +14.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf710…edc9backed Yes | 15c | 668.52$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.71 | 60 | 31.7%19 W · 41 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c7b…5485backed No | 54c | 654.75$355 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$299.91 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | +3.0wins | +0.11per pick | 30cpaid | +39.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x47b9…e8f6backed Yes | 4c | 650.35$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.35per pick | 40cpaid | +47%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 72c | 645.43$467 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.15 | 260 | 52.3%136 W · 124 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab4f…552fbacked No | 80c | 625$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf160…9995backed Yes | 48c | 625$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe18a…4b03backed Yes | 9c | 611.36$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0845…6b6fbacked Yes | 22c | 599.98$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132 | 53 | 35.8%19 W · 34 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 16c | 596$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.6 | 380 | 23.9%91 W · 289 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1c…3853backed Yes | 18c | 555.56$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.26per pick | 49cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8374…9149backed No | 61c | 545.44$335 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.36 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x739d…231ebacked Yes | 16c | 544.81$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.55 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2aeb…70f8backed Yes | 19c | 532.53$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x208c…e100backed Yes | 19c | 513.57$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x542f…1dc3backed Yes | 21c | 500$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.5 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x477d…e691backed Yes | 20c | 500$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81bb…beb9backed Yes | 22c | 464.91$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8aa…b64bbacked Yes | 22c | 463.61$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88d9…fdd5backed Yes | 22c | 455.01$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec53…e515backed Yes | 22c | 454.55$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8fe…3ee3backed Yes | 16c | 445.61$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.58 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ce5…468bbacked Yes | 29c | 444.32$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c84…40adbacked Yes | 23c | 430.76$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c2d…64bfbacked Yes | 24c | 425.27$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.14per pick | 30cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0ffc…8236backed Yes | 43c | 417.91$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.55 | 38 | 28.9%11 W · 27 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2631…5592backed Yes | 19c | 400.99$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09bb…f8b1backed No | 66c | 397.7$262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.09 | 85 | 55.3%47 W · 38 L | +6.6wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8eea…82aabacked Yes | 46c | 383.3$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ac5…fdaabacked Yes | 36c | 368.84$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.91 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x87ed…0055backed Yes | 22c | 359$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.3 | 43 | 30.2%13 W · 30 L | -3.0wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes | 20c | 356.34$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.25 | 371 | 17.8%66 W · 305 L | -18.9wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf6a6…0dd2backed Yes | 9c | 352.33$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8aef…e037backed Yes | 22c | 340.72$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe554…ee0ebacked Yes | 20c | 333$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.3 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8c…bb4abacked Yes | 32c | 329.2$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfcba…2398backed Yes | 20c | 327.72$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.13 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b96…9fd6backed Yes | 21c | 324.31$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa18d…1d6dbacked Yes | 37c | 307.55$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 11c | 305.81$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.93 | 141 | 26.2%37 W · 104 L | -7.6wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd362…9bc4backed No | 79c | 302.87$241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.32 | 67 | 40.3%27 W · 40 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe72…f18cbacked No | 80c | 300$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 50 | 58%29 W · 21 L | +4.6wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3d35…23c1backed No | 80c | 300$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 15 | 93.3%14 W · 1 L | +4.7wins | +0.31per pick | 62cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x7665…8ca9backed Yes | 21c | 298.28$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7022…f64ebacked No | 79c | 289.42$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.31 | 58 | 37.9%22 W · 36 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fba…92e7backed Yes | 44c | 282$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.94 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b28…5980backed Yes | 5c | 273.22$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.9 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7d1…0e35backed Yes | 18c | 269.19$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Yes | 30c | 265.95$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.08 | 449 | 21.2%95 W · 354 L | -21.7wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x20bc…f61bbacked Yes | 20c | 251.5$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x927f…e7e7backed Yes | 16c | 250$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.7 | 69 | 27.5%19 W · 50 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Matt Goodwin – Reform win the Gorton and Denton by-election?this page
- Will Amanda Gardner – Green Party win the Gorton and Denton by-election?No won
- Will Andy Burnham – Labour win the Gorton and Denton by-election?No won
- Will Angeliki Stogia - Labour win the Gorton and Denton by-election?No won
- Will Bev Craig – Reform win the Gorton and Denton by-election?No won
- Will Hannah Spencer win the Gorton and Denton by-election?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.