World Politics · resolved market
Will Andy Burnham – Labour win the Gorton and Denton by-election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd9fb8e5ba76ea9ada1a61fbefe64f61b992ee5102a84a50f5f76ce36aeece50c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $121,653
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $70,324
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $121,653 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 14 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5efb…55a1backed Yes | 31c | 20,295$6,382 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,381.85 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb760…ccd7backed No | 69c | 14,502$10,008 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,493.37 | 49 | 40.8%20 W · 29 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4c25…c3bebacked No | 66c | 5,000$3,300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,700 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +38.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes | 0c | 3,000$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 166 | 4.2%7 W · 159 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbba8…f383backed Yes | 1c | 1,948$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.17 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 13cpaid | -89.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed No | 75c | 1,061$793 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$268.72 | 170 | 37.6%64 W · 106 L | +5.2wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Yes | 1c | 1,018$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.87 | 73 | 17.8%13 W · 60 L | -4.9wins | -0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -60.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa5ce…2fa6backed Yes | 9c | 527$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.43 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 4c | 300$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 254 | 3.5%9 W · 245 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9702…7803backed Yes | 8c | 247.41$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Yes | 11c | 164.78$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.36 | 449 | 21.2%95 W · 354 L | -21.7wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 28c | 125$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.76 | 990 | 17.2%170 W · 820 L | -148.8wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 34-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 77 | 2.6%2 W · 75 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -64.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 32c | 48.28$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.45 | 563 | 14.6%82 W · 481 L | -39.3wins | -0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Andy Burnham – Labour win the Gorton and Denton by-election?this page
- Will Amanda Gardner – Green Party win the Gorton and Denton by-election?No won
- Will Angeliki Stogia - Labour win the Gorton and Denton by-election?No won
- Will Bev Craig – Reform win the Gorton and Denton by-election?No won
- Will Hannah Spencer win the Gorton and Denton by-election?Yes won
- Will Matt Goodwin – Reform win the Gorton and Denton by-election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.