TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

AI · resolved market

Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on June 30, 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$33,506
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$29,746

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,506 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in AI
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5a21…9318backed No78c3,106$2,434 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$671.3419432%62 W · 132 L0.0wins0.00per pick32cpaid-40.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8fbd…0b14backed Yes6c2,864$182 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$182.34119.1%1 W · 10 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick14cpaid-63%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2110…5850backed Yes7c2,180$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152.876048.3%29 W · 31 L+1.6wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-20.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaeb0…72fcbacked Yes53c2,174$1,162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,161.871050%5 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.11per pick61cpaid-27.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8623…34a6backed Yes5c1,833$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd073…b757backed Yes60c1,657$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,000757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+11.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe167…95b3backed Yes68c812.93$550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$550.28250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick56cpaid+13%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0482…6b0abacked Yes63c738.71$462 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$462.0921035.7%75 W · 135 L+13.4wins+0.06per pick29cpaid-8.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xbf52…7839backed Yes48c735.03$355 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$354.81366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.14per pick52cpaid+34.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x535e…ccd9backed No32c616.63$197 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$419.311428.6%4 W · 10 L+1.2wins+0.08per pick20cpaid+90.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa815…9cbebacked Yes5c593.16$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.372674.9%13 W · 254 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick6cpaid-36.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf524…8178backed Yes5c562.17$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.851388%11 W · 127 L-5.7wins-0.04per pick12cpaid-40.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x34da…29b3backed Yes33c541.36$178 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$177.59250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.21per pick29cpaid+99.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6ad0…7ecdbacked Yes66c321.95$212 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$211.96250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.22per pick72cpaid-36.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3b74…6407backed Yes65c305.22$199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.021643.8%7 W · 9 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-30.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2711…412abacked Yes49c303.83$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148.0420%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x272c…7f07backed Yes6c262.97$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.785735.1%20 W · 37 L+3.0wins+0.05per pick30cpaid+14.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7e80…631bbacked No76c262.57$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.7425632.8%84 W · 172 L-24.1wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-27.9%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x85c3…08fabacked No39c251.19$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$152.19366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick60cpaid+33.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x784f…5df9backed Yes25c250$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.51040%4 W · 6 L+1.1wins+0.11per pick29cpaid+157.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbd14…76b4backed Yes57c201.88$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.2416418.9%31 W · 133 L-21.7wins-0.13per pick32cpaid-51.3%equal weight37-0.11 edge/pick
0x0ec4…f4a4backed No37c200$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1262958.6%17 W · 12 L+2.7wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+1.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x03e1…e180backed Yes53c184.99$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.054042.5%17 W · 23 L+1.8wins+0.05per pick38cpaid+11%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x564f…7026backed Yes14c180$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.236945.3%167 W · 202 L+29.3wins+0.08per pick37cpaid+22.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa619…1103backed Yes50c165$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.331040%4 W · 6 L-2.5wins-0.25per pick65cpaid-38.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed Yes44c159.08$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.4789317.1%153 W · 740 L-144.9wins-0.16per pick33cpaid-61.3%equal weight32-0.16 edge/pick
0x300c…6a92backed Yes63c153.95$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.372045%9 W · 11 L+1.5wins+0.08per pick37cpaid+120.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdf90…5637backed Yes10c150$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151414.3%2 W · 12 L+0.8wins+0.06per pick9cpaid+12.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8144…8472backed Yes60c133$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.81838.9%7 W · 11 L-2.0wins-0.11per pick50cpaid-34.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xff91…ab3abacked No39c117.42$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.633941%16 W · 23 L+5.5wins+0.14per pick27cpaid+24%equal weight59+0.09 edge/pick
0xc955…b1e9backed No35c115.13$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.131526.7%4 W · 11 L+1.4wins+0.09per pick17cpaid-12.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdcf3…5c30backed No44c113.64$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.641040%4 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-30.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4f1d…8de2backed No59c107.96$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.524946.9%23 W · 26 L-0.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-23.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x095b…8a05backed No37c102$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.261526.7%4 W · 11 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick28cpaid-5.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe8fc…0d3bbacked No38c100$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$627223.6%17 W · 55 L-8.1wins-0.11per pick35cpaid-42.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xfd7a…dc52backed Yes16c100$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16560%3 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.12per pick48cpaid-7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x493c…953ebacked Yes12c100$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12933.3%3 W · 6 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-23.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb0d6…7475backed No62c93.49$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.423834.2%13 W · 25 L-2.7wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-40.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc71b…e265backed No38c90.32$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5628826.7%77 W · 211 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-16.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaa81…aaf7backed Yes26c75.17$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.4222019.5%43 W · 177 L-11.7wins-0.05per pick25cpaid-46.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes51c68.33$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.6772935.5%259 W · 470 L-57.8wins-0.08per pick43cpaid-26.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No30c60$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$427448.6%36 W · 38 L+2.0wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-14.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9cb3…1367backed No65c54.59$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.19444.7%42 W · 52 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-20.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe347…b438backed No29c45$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.956647%31 W · 35 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick44cpaid-4.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaf05…33e2backed No37c45$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.31752.9%9 W · 8 L-2.1wins-0.12per pick65cpaid-20.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8130…5a50backed Yes66c37.13$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.572035%7 W · 13 L+1.0wins+0.05per pick30cpaid-7.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc9af…91e5backed No35c35$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.851442.9%6 W · 8 L-0.9wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-10.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No36c35$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.251,3636.8%93 W · 1,270 L-20.2wins-0.01per pick8cpaid-59.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0711…f03cbacked No46c31.58$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.119337.3%72 W · 121 L+9.0wins+0.05per pick33cpaid-10.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Yes57c30$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.119120.9%40 W · 151 L-20.8wins-0.11per pick32cpaid-57.1%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x4916…f56fbacked Yes59c26.82$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.6917350.3%87 W · 86 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5edc…bbadbacked No61c25$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.753231.3%10 W · 22 L-3.0wins-0.10per pick41cpaid-44.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7795…5386backed Yes67c22.1$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.8110%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.67per pick67cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x126e…c360backed Yes50c20$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104420.5%9 W · 35 L-3.3wins-0.07per pick28cpaid-35.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd9b5…9db1backed No61c18.1$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.092536%9 W · 16 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-33.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.