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AI · resolved market

Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by June 30, 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$61,233
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$56,548

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $61,233 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 87 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in AI
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x7bec…b4e2backed No19c5,769$1,094 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,094.3350%0 W · 5 L-1.9wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x8597…daeebacked Yes80c4,026$3,216 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8104100%4 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2110…5850backed Yes24c3,507$831 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,676.666048.3%29 W · 31 L+1.6wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-20.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0482…6b0abacked Yes16c2,663$438 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,225.321035.7%75 W · 135 L+13.4wins+0.06per pick29cpaid-8.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xe018…a22dbacked Yes18c2,436$435 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,001.661421.4%3 W · 11 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick24cpaid-4.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x645a…fd84backed No74c1,706$1,261 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,2615644.6%25 W · 31 L-7.2wins-0.13per pick57cpaid-30.2%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xaeb0…72fcbacked No76c1,632$1,247 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,247.451050%5 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.11per pick61cpaid-27.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No21c1,501$311 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$311.327231.9%23 W · 49 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick34cpaid-42.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed Yes41c1,355$558 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$796.4119631.6%62 W · 134 L-0.7wins0.00per pick32cpaid-41%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe3b2…7d94backed No2c1,170$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.16450%2 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick43cpaid-18.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7e80…631bbacked No76c1,020$772 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$771.5125632.8%84 W · 172 L-24.1wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-27.9%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xf08c…91e9backed Yes23c1,006$230 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$775.964839.6%19 W · 29 L+1.5wins+0.03per pick36cpaid+33.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5999…ae94backed Yes56c977.46$552 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$425.538052.5%42 W · 38 L+3.9wins+0.05per pick48cpaid-9.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb980…73b0backed No4c966.33$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.113647.2%17 W · 19 L+3.0wins+0.08per pick39cpaid-10%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked No12c936.31$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.3617924%43 W · 136 L-12.4wins-0.07per pick31cpaid-56.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x7b75…3fd1backed Yes50c870.32$439 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$430.8812033.3%40 W · 80 L+6.5wins+0.05per pick28cpaid-9.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0a7a…df1bbacked No2c750$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.521813.3%29 W · 189 L+8.1wins+0.04per pick10cpaid+2.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf524…8178backed No6c678.15$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.861398.6%12 W · 127 L-5.5wins-0.04per pick13cpaid-39.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes18c619.29$111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$508.61,3686.8%93 W · 1,275 L-20.4wins-0.01per pick8cpaid-59.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb41e…11fdbacked No2c611.23$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.535610.7%6 W · 50 L+0.1wins0.00per pick11cpaid-28.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked Yes56c607.47$343 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$264.7915047.3%71 W · 79 L+6.5wins+0.04per pick43cpaid-13.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe167…95b3backed Yes44c525.92$233 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$293.15250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick56cpaid+13%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7fa5…7621backed No4c496.59$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.361080%8 W · 2 L+2.6wins+0.26per pick54cpaid+57.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x272c…7f07backed Yes18c481$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$392.515735.1%20 W · 37 L+3.0wins+0.05per pick30cpaid+14.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x34da…29b3backed Yes25c438.04$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$328.42250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.21per pick29cpaid+99.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd073…b757backed Yes72c415.39$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115.39757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+11.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5d91…35b8backed Yes25c386.91$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$290.5366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.21per pick45cpaid+79.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No71c352$249 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$248.838741.4%36 W · 51 L-3.9wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-28.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked No4c347.97$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.683042%6 W · 298 L-9.4wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-70.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xac4a…bf1ebacked No13c333.95$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.2220118.9%38 W · 163 L-7.3wins-0.04per pick23cpaid-39.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa619…1103backed No58c319.99$187 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$186.541040%4 W · 6 L-2.5wins-0.25per pick65cpaid-38.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No6c290$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.445841.4%24 W · 34 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-29.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x389a…397dbacked No47c255.26$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1203231.3%10 W · 22 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick29cpaid-29.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5113…0293backed No8c251.25$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No21c242.23$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.177041.4%29 W · 41 L-3.9wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-36.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xffe7…89bfbacked Yes19c230.1$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$186.14742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.10per pick33cpaid+100.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x511f…cbe1backed No15c205$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.888042.5%34 W · 46 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-25.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2e1f…8fdebacked No8c204.78$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.4111636.2%42 W · 74 L+2.4wins+0.02per pick34cpaid+4.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf088…c8d3backed Yes20c200$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$160450%2 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.19per pick31cpaid+61.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6204…421abacked No77c199.99$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154.193020%6 W · 24 L-6.4wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-73.8%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0x300c…6a92backed Yes5c194.99$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$184.312142.9%9 W · 12 L+1.3wins+0.06per pick37cpaid+109.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3b74…6407backed Yes52c191.98$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.981643.8%7 W · 9 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-30.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x11f8…1c4ebacked No11c173$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.385655.4%31 W · 25 L+7.2wins+0.13per pick42cpaid+7.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xcd91…32b8backed No26c171$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.164736.2%17 W · 30 L-3.7wins-0.08per pick44cpaid-37%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed No50c167.01$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.9889817%153 W · 745 L-146.0wins-0.16per pick33cpaid-61.5%equal weight32-0.16 edge/pick
0xfe41…9f23backed Yes19c165.16$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$134.114827.1%13 W · 35 L-3.8wins-0.08per pick35cpaid-14.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x54c6…e5c2backed Yes19c164.56$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$132.95580%4 W · 1 L+2.6wins+0.52per pick28cpaid+222.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes71c156.72$111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.6548138%183 W · 298 L-11.1wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-22.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaa81…aaf7backed No30c154.01$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.922019.5%43 W · 177 L-11.7wins-0.05per pick25cpaid-46.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed No35c153.98$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.2720731.9%66 W · 141 L+4.4wins+0.02per pick30cpaid-6.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8b02…b95fbacked Yes42c137.28$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.131968.4%13 W · 6 L+3.4wins+0.18per pick51cpaid+54.8%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xc1c4…bbfbbacked No17c133.85$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.71560%3 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.07per pick53cpaid-18.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcbcc…1377backed Yes23c132.23$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.81957.9%11 W · 8 L+2.1wins+0.11per pick47cpaid+21%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1fc9…ace5backed No41c128.4$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.032120.9%2 W · 210 L-12.1wins-0.06per pick7cpaid-85.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xeac7…3eaabacked Yes26c122$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.163438.2%13 W · 21 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-30.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbfba…f650backed No16c119.85$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.98450%2 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-11.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes21c110.01$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.1646138.8%179 W · 282 L-32.7wins-0.07per pick46cpaid-3.7%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x9f2a…3706backed No48c100$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.64938.8%19 W · 30 L-4.4wins-0.09per pick48cpaid-39.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xec2d…de68backed Yes19c100$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.9633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick41cpaid+24.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x755d…6accbacked No17c99.99$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.15521.8%12 W · 43 L-3.2wins-0.06per pick28cpaid-47.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x895d…3778backed Yes23c99.95$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.46250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.26per pick24cpaid+122.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0b14…5022backed Yes15c95.56$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.692100%2 W · 0 L+1.3wins+0.63per pick37cpaid+327.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa328…4977backed No11c95.32$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.84126.8%11 W · 30 L-4.1wins-0.10per pick37cpaid-44.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xb0d6…7475backed No77c93.49$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.923834.2%13 W · 25 L-2.7wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-40.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa9b7…f43cbacked Yes19c93.34$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.572240.9%9 W · 13 L+3.1wins+0.14per pick27cpaid+25.7%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xb701…0ca0backed Yes25c90.6$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.11922.2%2 W · 7 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick18cpaid+186.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No77c90$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.337548%36 W · 39 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-15.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x10b2…4cebbacked Yes19c86.56$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.263622.2%8 W · 28 L-1.7wins-0.05per pick27cpaid-24.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x77e5…ac0fbacked Yes76c86.39$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.45425%1 W · 3 L-1.9wins-0.48per pick73cpaid-67.2%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x0bd0…67b0backed Yes60c82.99$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.992157.1%12 W · 9 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick53cpaid-3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb557…ef84backed Yes25c80.97$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.971650%8 W · 8 L+1.3wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+27.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0bfb…26a7backed Yes20c65.08$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$528442.9%36 W · 48 L+6.1wins+0.07per pick36cpaid-12.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xca1f…d282backed No79c63.53$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.012860.7%17 W · 11 L+1.1wins+0.04per pick57cpaid+13.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc71b…e265backed No79c60.94$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.2428826.7%77 W · 211 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-16.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2e91…a1b7backed Yes20c59.16$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.34633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick38cpaid+12.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ecf…75d2backed Yes22c58.68$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.56742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick37cpaid+63.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcd76…5000backed Yes20c50.23$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.22771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.8wins+0.25per pick46cpaid+124.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xe1a9…339ebacked No24c50$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.93122.6%7 W · 24 L-1.1wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-11.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe347…b438backed No78c45$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.16647%31 W · 35 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick44cpaid-4.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3cff…9fc8backed Yes24c44.73$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.01333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.15per pick19cpaid+39.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6ad8…dbebbacked No44c36.99$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.172552%13 W · 12 L+1.5wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+10.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xca52…0cdfbacked Yes56c35.52$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.5211346%52 W · 61 L+11.1wins+0.10per pick36cpaid-1.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x2b59…9db6backed No80c28.99$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.096854.4%37 W · 31 L+1.9wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5edc…bbadbacked No44c25$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.883231.3%10 W · 22 L-3.0wins-0.10per pick41cpaid-44.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xaf05…33e2backed No77c20$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.341752.9%9 W · 8 L-2.1wins-0.12per pick65cpaid-20.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xac14…8333backed No79c20$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.8210%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.79per pick79cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x27ab…e521backed No67c19.37$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.022343.5%10 W · 13 L-1.8wins-0.08per pick51cpaid-35.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.