TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

World Politics · resolved market

Will Bev Craig win the 2026 Greater Manchester Mayoral Election?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$244,273
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$232,496

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $244,273 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 114 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in World Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xb1ca…1705backed No9c56,641$5,112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,111.977129.6%21 W · 50 L-4.1wins-0.06per pick35cpaid-48.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x264c…bacabacked No11c15,294$1,642 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,642.171315.4%2 W · 11 L-0.8wins-0.06per pick21cpaid-79.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe154…0b7fbacked No2c13,932$290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$290.1616616.9%28 W · 138 L+7.6wins+0.05per pick12cpaid+111.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x74f1…16a8backed No5c9,613$488 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$487.586523.1%15 W · 50 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick24cpaid-43.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1f9e…4f1abacked No12c8,658$1,047 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,047.059850%49 W · 49 L+16.1wins+0.16per pick34cpaid+40.4%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0x2b34…b202backed No9c4,961$424 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$423.963943.6%17 W · 22 L+2.8wins+0.07per pick36cpaid+9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x16da…05c0backed No11c3,662$399 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$399.051811.1%2 W · 16 L-1.3wins-0.07per pick18cpaid-24.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa58d…b9b8backed No16c3,594$569 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$569.3945723.2%106 W · 351 L-15.8wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-35%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No9c3,505$307 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$306.7834354.8%188 W · 155 L-1.5wins0.00per pick55cpaid-12%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5677…2ce9backed No12c2,980$369 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$369.43221.9%7 W · 25 L+0.1wins0.00per pick22cpaid-60.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3735…ab5ebacked No2c1,909$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.8710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe8a2…560ebacked No2c1,900$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.93925.6%10 W · 29 L+2.0wins+0.05per pick21cpaid+22.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0a7a…df1bbacked No1c1,750$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1217921.2%38 W · 141 L+10.6wins+0.06per pick15cpaid+56.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb35e…7cc4backed No9c1,721$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154.9560%3 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.14per pick46cpaid+18.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8328…fe31backed No19c1,647$320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$319.9520%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5533…51babacked No1c1,644$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.56283.6%1 W · 27 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick3cpaid-10.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2106…4deabacked No12c1,570$184 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$183.524431.8%14 W · 30 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick29cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xae4e…3507backed No4c1,555$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.8633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-54.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2e8e…5b53backed No10c1,250$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.99650%3 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.15per pick35cpaid-5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb716…f61cbacked No19c1,200$228 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$228250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.24per pick26cpaid+56.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb7e9…bdacbacked No17c1,200$199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.27761%47 W · 30 L+5.4wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+8.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5011…220ebacked No7c1,115$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.53837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick31cpaid-50.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdb40…3612backed No5c1,110$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.057416.2%12 W · 62 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick18cpaid-57.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x081a…66d0backed No17c1,013$177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$176.9814225.4%36 W · 106 L-8.0wins-0.06per pick31cpaid-20.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xaabd…0992backed No20c1,000$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick40cpaid-45.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x13ac…2c1abacked No20c1,000$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-23.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9372…3b1abacked No13c1,000$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130650%3 W · 3 L+1.4wins+0.24per pick26cpaid+76.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xbd14…76b4backed No17c887$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.9314637%54 W · 92 L-0.3wins0.00per pick37cpaid-15%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc3fc…484abacked No8c839.89$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.834926.5%13 W · 36 L-4.3wins-0.09per pick35cpaid-43.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2cc7…2385backed No6c800$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$481921.1%4 W · 15 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick20cpaid-53.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5c0a…a2c3backed No14c796$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.9718445.7%84 W · 100 L-6.3wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-11%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb8ad…ff58backed Yes80c719.67$572 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$147.2314632.2%47 W · 99 L-8.6wins-0.06per pick38cpaid-35%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd423…99e9backed No7c714.29$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5030%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5ee1…9801backed No2c669.97$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.41050%5 W · 5 L+2.0wins+0.20per pick30cpaid+28%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xfd3d…684dbacked No16c641.34$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001637.5%6 W · 10 L+1.9wins+0.12per pick26cpaid+62.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No15c639.5$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.7852850.8%268 W · 260 L+20.9wins+0.04per pick47cpaid-11.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x392a…262dbacked Yes79c636.91$503 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$133.911471.4%10 W · 4 L+2.1wins+0.15per pick57cpaid+13.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No19c617$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.7335258%204 W · 148 L-4.6wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-7.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc3cd…816cbacked No9c600$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5218628.5%53 W · 133 L+3.9wins+0.02per pick26cpaid-17.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9f2a…3706backed No18c531.64$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.994839.6%19 W · 29 L-4.1wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-17.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xeca0…e8f8backed Yes74c500$369 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$131.0213343.6%58 W · 75 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-6.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked No20c500$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10046330.2%140 W · 323 L-20.4wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-19%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8f54…1f3ebacked No3c443.28$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No7c390$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.323551.9%122 W · 113 L-0.5wins0.00per pick52cpaid-12.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1526…d77cbacked Yes79c389.24$307 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.65475%3 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick74cpaid+1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdba1…d0e5backed No18c369.49$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.231040%4 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-3.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc24f…220bbacked No14c343.82$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.951485.7%12 W · 2 L+4.5wins+0.32per pick53cpaid+50.2%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked No9c341.73$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.142543.5%9 W · 245 L-4.3wins-0.02per pick5cpaid-50.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3c7b…5485backed Yes39c325.08$128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$197.142740.7%11 W · 16 L+3.0wins+0.11per pick30cpaid+39.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xeaa9…1737backed No17c317.02$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.8910243.1%44 W · 58 L-6.1wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-17.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc01f…cd8ebacked No10c300$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$307027.1%19 W · 51 L+0.2wins0.00per pick27cpaid-36.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0777…4b7fbacked No16c295.83$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.331323.1%3 W · 10 L+1.2wins+0.09per pick14cpaid+133.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x51ca…046bbacked Yes75c266.99$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.99785.7%6 W · 1 L+1.5wins+0.22per pick64cpaid+28.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x11aa…7e7ebacked Yes69c231$159 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.611100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+44.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2cd0…fb3dbacked No30c219.98$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.19850%4 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe457…5ab3backed No15c218.09$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.4110542.9%45 W · 60 L-4.7wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-20.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x090a…0fa6backed No7c213.11$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.482755.6%15 W · 12 L+2.0wins+0.08per pick48cpaid-1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa328…4977backed No7c212$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.2713243.9%58 W · 74 L-2.8wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-15.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc518…2594backed No6c202.14$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.9618348.6%89 W · 94 L-0.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3dd2…9ab1backed No7c202$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.142642.3%11 W · 15 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-11.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x168f…9e00backed No17c200$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3410634.9%37 W · 69 L-3.1wins-0.03per pick38cpaid-8.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf524…8178backed No9c184.09$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.4313225%33 W · 99 L-2.5wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-22.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x758b…0a1cbacked No21c169.99$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.118643%37 W · 49 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-10.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf624…43f9backed No12c166.67$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x27ab…e521backed No14c150$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.757058.6%41 W · 29 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-11.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xfff1…5e20backed No13c150$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.51729.4%5 W · 12 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick34cpaid-23.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0e0c…a963backed No16c150$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24425%1 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.23per pick48cpaid-59.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xea31…a889backed No16c150$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.51936.8%7 W · 12 L-2.2wins-0.12per pick48cpaid-20%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd90e…03b6backed No16c150$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$246043.3%26 W · 34 L-7.0wins-0.12per pick55cpaid-27%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x202d…c3b1backed No15c150$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.5728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.2wins-0.17per pick45cpaid-44.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x091e…2545backed No18c145$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.110%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4708…9580backed No8c133.75$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.72528%7 W · 18 L+1.6wins+0.06per pick22cpaid-31.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc01a…55d1backed No13c123.03$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.5210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x2b59…9db6backed No74c110.52$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.6615355.6%85 W · 68 L+3.7wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+6.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x06d5…09d5backed No18c108$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.441442.9%6 W · 8 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick44cpaid+7.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x095b…8a05backed No19c107$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.621827.8%5 W · 13 L-2.9wins-0.16per pick44cpaid-51.2%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xcfff…673dbacked No44c105$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.226355.9%147 W · 116 L-4.4wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5e70…c53ebacked No14c100$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x27da…d24abacked No14c100$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1450%0 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x58d3…c14bbacked No31c100$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31580%4 W · 1 L+1.4wins+0.27per pick53cpaid+63.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe7fe…24e5backed Yes73c100$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$276434.4%22 W · 42 L-2.7wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-9.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x608f…9065backed No18c100$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.751822.2%4 W · 14 L-4.4wins-0.25per pick47cpaid-61.7%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x7ae8…5a42backed No26c99.97$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.991729.4%5 W · 12 L-1.1wins-0.07per pick36cpaid-45.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7495…7fcfbacked No26c93.55$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.5619315.5%30 W · 163 L-5.3wins-0.03per pick18cpaid-20.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x93c0…b2e0backed Yes76c91.96$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.66250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick61cpaid-34.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0169…0096backed No30c88.77$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.637731.2%24 W · 53 L-0.3wins0.00per pick32cpaid-17.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4f1d…8de2backed No15c72.3$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.215558.7%91 W · 64 L+0.8wins0.00per pick58cpaid-8.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No19c70$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1326052.3%136 W · 124 L+2.8wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-7.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1075…19c1backed No25c70$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.52630.8%8 W · 18 L+1.4wins+0.05per pick26cpaid+10.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6960…b9d4backed No21c70$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.710%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0f99…6734backed No25c64$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$166944.9%31 W · 38 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-17.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x58ce…57c4backed No22c64$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.363336.4%12 W · 21 L-3.1wins-0.09per pick46cpaid-44.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x942e…be27backed No20c60$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1218762.6%117 W · 70 L+6.0wins+0.03per pick59cpaid+4.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc3e7…d1cebacked No21c60$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.610%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7e80…631bbacked No30c52.71$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.5827438.3%105 W · 169 L-32.3wins-0.12per pick50cpaid-35.3%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xe1a9…339ebacked No20c50$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102425%6 W · 18 L0.0wins0.00per pick25cpaid+4.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8802…dc66backed No20c50$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10580%4 W · 1 L+1.6wins+0.32per pick48cpaid+81.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0dc1…a08cbacked No20c50$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1020%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6cdb…8a82backed No21c50$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.5933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.1wins-0.12per pick45cpaid-41.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x25f4…f88ebacked No21c50$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.51127.3%3 W · 8 L-1.4wins-0.13per pick40cpaid-56%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.