World Politics · resolved market
Will Geraldine Coggins win the 2026 Greater Manchester Mayoral Election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9e991a05d1aa30fd136e7def596f0c8262c68f11ccdbb708f81e16ee8f3bc9b6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $72,504
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $57,573
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $72,504 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x74f1…16a8backed Yes | 1c | 12,722$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.46 | 65 | 23.1%15 W · 50 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 9c | 4,975$468 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$467.53 | 457 | 23.2%106 W · 351 L | -15.8wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -35%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d0c…7bc3backed Yes | 1c | 3,621$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.48 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8c1…16c0backed Yes | 2c | 2,990$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 36 | 33.3%12 W · 24 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d55…7cbabacked Yes | 1c | 2,822$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 1c | 2,043$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.89 | 169 | 1.8%3 W · 166 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16da…05c0backed Yes | 8c | 1,869$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.45 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 18cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 2c | 1,686$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.76 | 193 | 15.5%30 W · 163 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25e3…9f8cbacked Yes | 1c | 1,586$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5896…49aebacked Yes | 1c | 1,020$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x686d…1a68backed Yes | 3c | 1,007$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.35 | 40 | 52.5%21 W · 19 L | +5.4wins | +0.13per pick | 39cpaid | +6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb125…bce0backed Yes | 4c | 909.33$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.6 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +1.5wins | +0.11per pick | 32cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9949…3f3bbacked Yes | 4c | 891.42$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -22%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf0e…c02bbacked Yes | 7c | 755$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.85 | 50 | 36%18 W · 32 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15f6…e3f8backed Yes | 4c | 620$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.8 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed Yes | 10c | 555$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.5 | 146 | 37%54 W · 92 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ad…ff58backed Yes | 16c | 511.46$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.75 | 146 | 32.2%47 W · 99 L | -8.6wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -35%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 7c | 418$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.55 | 254 | 3.5%9 W · 245 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 8c | 315.44$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.56 | 316 | 35.1%111 W · 205 L | -11.1wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf524…8178backed Yes | 10c | 300$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.25 | 132 | 25%33 W · 99 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d01…1645backed Yes | 17c | 299.91$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.99 | 120 | 29.2%35 W · 85 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +49.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad7…a31fbacked Yes | 4c | 277.96$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.82 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 11cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 10c | 276.22$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.62 | 463 | 30.2%140 W · 323 L | -20.4wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -19%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 8c | 268.89$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.51 | 549 | 34.6%190 W · 359 L | -37.0wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7dc9…525ebacked Yes | 4c | 250$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 26 | 7.7%2 W · 24 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -72.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x167a…91d5backed Yes | 8c | 158.58$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.34 | 68 | 35.3%24 W · 44 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 8c | 153$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.73 | 167 | 6.6%11 W · 156 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 7cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb7e9…bdacbacked Yes | 8c | 150$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 77 | 61%47 W · 30 L | +5.4wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…27c9backed Yes | 9c | 150$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 74 | 50%37 W · 37 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed Yes | 14c | 140$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 105 | 42.9%45 W · 60 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 13c | 122.49$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.48 | 274 | 38.3%105 W · 169 L | -32.3wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x081a…66d0backed Yes | 9c | 113.48$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.76 | 142 | 25.4%36 W · 106 L | -8.0wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…6734backed Yes | 19c | 101$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.19 | 69 | 44.9%31 W · 38 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd594…9d1bbacked No | 78c | 97.44$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.44 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84c3…35d4backed Yes | 13c | 83$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.72 | 58 | 53.4%31 W · 27 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…468fbacked Yes | 19c | 66$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.54 | 107 | 34.6%37 W · 70 L | -4.6wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x344d…1aaabacked Yes | 39c | 62$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.3 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 52c | 37$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.59 | 153 | 55.6%85 W · 68 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Geraldine Coggins win the 2026 Greater Manchester Mayoral Election?this page
- Will Bev Craig win the 2026 Greater Manchester Mayoral Election?Yes won
- Will Dan Barker win the 2026 Greater Manchester Mayoral Election?No won
- Will Hannah Spencer win the 2026 Greater Manchester Mayoral Election?No won
- Will Kate Green win the 2026 Greater Manchester Mayoral Election?No won
- Will Laura Evans win the 2026 Greater Manchester Mayoral Election?No won
- Will Marlon Scott West win the 2026 Greater Manchester Mayoral Election?No won
- Will Nick Buckley win the 2026 Greater Manchester Mayoral Election?No won
- Will Sian Astley win the 2026 Greater Manchester Mayoral Election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.