Middle East · resolved market
Will USD be less than 1.5M Iranian rials on June 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb55eb6e7553df48831ffba2f7b005a28c3654cfd9c55f01b113bcc1353c1dd3d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $33,257
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,646
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,257 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6261…2e11backed No | 79c | 3,325$2,633 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$692.1 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 73cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…2c72backed Yes | 9c | 3,028$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$278.04 | 291 | 29.9%87 W · 204 L | +21.5wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x43cf…88fabacked Yes | 19c | 2,836$527 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$526.58 | 81 | 45.7%37 W · 44 L | +6.2wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc2cb…fbf5backed Yes | 10c | 2,792$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.43 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044c…6987backed Yes | 15c | 1,375$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.54 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +2.2wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +71.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b62…5203backed Yes | 38c | 838.13$316 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$315.7 | 57 | 31.6%18 W · 39 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 16c | 797.88$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.96 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 6c | 778.08$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.36 | 221 | 7.2%16 W · 205 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf524…8178backed Yes | 6c | 437.44$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.68 | 103 | 9.7%10 W · 93 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1e8…b7b3backed Yes | 20c | 372.01$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c7a…6875backed Yes | 15c | 359.99$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.74 | 75 | 20%15 W · 60 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe3c6…1515backed Yes | 23c | 321.77$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.59 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes | 22c | 320$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.8 | 80 | 38.8%31 W · 49 L | -5.2wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x300c…6a92backed No | 75c | 254$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.55 | 194 | 49.5%96 W · 98 L | +12.3wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +16%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 15c | 249.64$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.24 | 288 | 27.8%80 W · 208 L | -10.4wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x34ce…0b77backed Yes | 13c | 238.19$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 29cpaid | +40.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x095b…8a05backed Yes | 17c | 234$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.48 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -2.9wins | -0.14per pick | 29cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x168f…9e00backed Yes | 5c | 200.28$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.68 | 171 | 29.2%50 W · 121 L | -9.4wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3b…9f3abacked Yes | 10c | 129.85$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.48 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2be6…e054backed Yes | 11c | 120.97$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.11 | 123 | 25.2%31 W · 92 L | +15.2wins | +0.12per pick | 13cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 15c | 105$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.49 | 865 | 42.3%366 W · 499 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21a3…9e97backed Yes | 12c | 105$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.29 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 32c | 100$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.3 | 366 | 26.8%98 W · 268 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e29…740fbacked Yes | 32c | 100$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.1 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 15cpaid | -91.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22fa…8135backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.54 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +3.2wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +86.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 78c | 90.87$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.63 | 99 | 81.8%81 W · 18 L | +9.7wins | +0.10per pick | 72cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9df0…4b34backed Yes | 13c | 80.57$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.09 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 13cpaid | +284.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4916…f56fbacked Yes | 22c | 59.1$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.78 | 114 | 52.6%60 W · 54 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 34c | 56.94$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.24 | 218 | 31.2%68 W · 150 L | +6.3wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x807d…72a0backed Yes | 40c | 37.53$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…aaf7backed No | 77c | 24.18$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.45 | 97 | 14.4%14 W · 83 L | -6.1wins | -0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will USD be less than 1.5M Iranian rials on June 30?this page
- Will USD be at least 2.0M Iranian rials on June 30?No won
- Will USD be between 1.5M and 1.6M Iranian rials on June 30?No won
- Will USD be between 1.6M and 1.7M Iranian rials on June 30?No won
- Will USD be between 1.7M and 1.8M Iranian rials on June 30?Yes won
- Will USD be between 1.8M and 1.9M Iranian rials on June 30?No won
- Will USD be between 1.9M and 2.0M Iranian rials on June 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.