Middle East · resolved market
Will USD be between 1.8M and 1.9M Iranian rials on June 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd35f30b498f9266fece58fae2fc231b20e8d3b0480d1539dc475c402bc4d6fd4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,374
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,775
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,374 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2a58…b808backed Yes | 2c | 1,698$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.63 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +1.4wins | +0.10per pick | 24cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2086…8ef7backed Yes | 32c | 429.64$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.66 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ed0…9c4fbacked Yes | 29c | 384.77$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.81 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf41c…ba2fbacked Yes | 30c | 325.89$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.1 | 73 | 34.2%25 W · 48 L | -7.8wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…2c72backed No | 62c | 300$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114 | 291 | 29.9%87 W · 204 L | +21.5wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x389a…397dbacked Yes | 37c | 218.92$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 62 | 51.6%32 W · 30 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 11c | 177.45$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.45 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb23b…503fbacked No | 72c | 110$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.8 | 53 | 45.3%24 W · 29 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21a3…9e97backed Yes | 19c | 105$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.75 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…6734backed Yes | 22c | 104$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.88 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8252…e65cbacked Yes | 21c | 104$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.84 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 288 | 27.8%80 W · 208 L | -10.4wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.24per pick | 40cpaid | -74.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa639…f5e8backed No | 76c | 99.99$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.25per pick | 67cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 65c | 96.37$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.1 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d49…d70cbacked Yes | 24c | 90.04$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.61 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 70c | 60$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.99 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4101…d968backed No | 70c | 52$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +65.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa823…1af5backed Yes | 27c | 48.81$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.18 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +2.4wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 76c | 42.11$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.11 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.20per pick | 50cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 32c | 40.07$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.82 | 342 | 34.8%119 W · 223 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 68c | 23.34$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.25per pick | 45cpaid | -70.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a2c…64f0backed No | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +4.1wins | +0.19per pick | 45cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5eba…217ebacked No | 77c | 18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.19 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 71c | 15.81$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.59 | 678 | 41.6%282 W · 396 L | -20.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will USD be between 1.8M and 1.9M Iranian rials on June 30?this page
- Will USD be at least 2.0M Iranian rials on June 30?No won
- Will USD be between 1.5M and 1.6M Iranian rials on June 30?No won
- Will USD be between 1.6M and 1.7M Iranian rials on June 30?No won
- Will USD be between 1.7M and 1.8M Iranian rials on June 30?Yes won
- Will USD be between 1.9M and 2.0M Iranian rials on June 30?No won
- Will USD be less than 1.5M Iranian rials on June 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.