Middle East · resolved market
Will USD be between 1.6M and 1.7M Iranian rials on June 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x448fd8bc89bb9d630674711deb68a5463f699925debeab96351d822cc4880946
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,342
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,475
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,342 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 70 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2a58…b808backed Yes | 26c | 3,719$984 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$984.25 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +1.4wins | +0.10per pick | 24cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43cf…88fabacked Yes | 15c | 2,689$402 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$401.56 | 81 | 45.7%37 W · 44 L | +6.2wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2086…8ef7backed Yes | 65c | 1,388$908 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$907.87 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc427…6f4dbacked Yes | 32c | 1,206$381 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$381.45 | 57 | 45.6%26 W · 31 L | +7.9wins | +0.14per pick | 32cpaid | +44%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x43f7…35e5backed Yes | 30c | 788$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.34 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +2.6wins | +0.29per pick | 38cpaid | +206%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed No | 34c | 707.37$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$463.67 | 53 | 13.2%7 W · 46 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 17cpaid | -62.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf4d…33edbacked Yes | 62c | 583.48$362 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$361.99 | 79 | 46.8%37 W · 42 L | -5.3wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 48c | 563.48$272 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$291 | 197 | 39.1%77 W · 120 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x62bc…5053backed Yes | 30c | 560.32$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.17 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +44.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…2c72backed Yes | 3c | 500$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 291 | 29.9%87 W · 204 L | +21.5wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7ed0…9c4fbacked Yes | 15c | 475.08$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.78 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 58c | 449$258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.6 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 38cpaid | -65.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 46c | 383$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.55 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -23%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x389a…397dbacked Yes | 63c | 365.45$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230 | 62 | 51.6%32 W · 30 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x34ce…0b77backed Yes | 25c | 358.41$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.52 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 29cpaid | +40.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 73c | 339$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.75 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x511f…cbe1backed No | 49c | 330.18$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.3 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe347…b438backed No | 61c | 285.07$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.31 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044c…6987backed Yes | 8c | 250$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +2.2wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +71.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3003…efa3backed Yes | 19c | 227$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.13 | 70 | 38.6%27 W · 43 L | -10.3wins | -0.15per pick | 53cpaid | -31%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 69c | 225.94$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.35 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -35%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 78c | 212.86$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.1 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 70c | 200$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 643 | 39.3%253 W · 390 L | -59.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 61c | 172.73$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.36 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x954d…cd39backed Yes | 29c | 171.9$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | +5.5wins | +0.31per pick | 42cpaid | +92.2%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xcb84…8bbdbacked Yes | 19c | 156.68$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.77 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +2.8wins | +0.13per pick | 42cpaid | +39.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 75c | 155$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.85 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 59c | 151.29$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.72 | 360 | 35.3%127 W · 233 L | -30.4wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…6734backed No | 42c | 135$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.3 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 9c | 125.3$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.28 | 462 | 5%23 W · 439 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 24c | 120$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.39 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 37c | 115$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf41c…ba2fbacked Yes | 19c | 105.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 73 | 34.2%25 W · 48 L | -7.8wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed Yes | 67c | 104.17$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.27 | 50 | 44%22 W · 28 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x081a…66d0backed Yes | 14c | 102$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.28 | 114 | 36%41 W · 73 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed Yes | 61c | 100$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 119 | 44.5%53 W · 66 L | -17.8wins | -0.15per pick | 59cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x22fa…8135backed Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +3.2wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +86.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa823…1af5backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +2.4wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 10c | 99.29$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.42 | 288 | 27.8%80 W · 208 L | -10.4wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 73c | 97.68$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.25 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf0e…c02bbacked Yes | 14c | 84$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 28 | 21.4%6 W · 22 L | -3.4wins | -0.12per pick | 33cpaid | -60%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed No | 75c | 76.29$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.07 | 218 | 31.2%68 W · 150 L | +6.3wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 14c | 73.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.04 | 153 | 47.1%72 W · 81 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed Yes | 37c | 63.12$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.52 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 36cpaid | -74.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x27ab…e521backed No | 68c | 61.6$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.99 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +58.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39aa…583cbacked No | 33c | 60.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.52 | 50 | 22%11 W · 39 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -37%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad65…8c6bbacked Yes | 37c | 59.51$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 79c | 55.59$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.6 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1a9…339ebacked No | 29c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.5 | 34 | 20.6%7 W · 27 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 56c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf65d…b385backed Yes | 71c | 50$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9631…a38cbacked Yes | 41c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +37.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0041…967cbacked Yes | 68c | 50$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 44c | 49.99$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.99 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc366…fce9backed Yes | 41c | 48.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 76c | 36$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.7 | 99 | 81.8%81 W · 18 L | +9.7wins | +0.10per pick | 72cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x061c…ba08backed Yes | 70c | 35.97$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4916…f56fbacked No | 53c | 34.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.49 | 114 | 52.6%60 W · 54 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes | 34c | 32.57$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.25per pick | 45cpaid | -70.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 47c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.9 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdad7…005abacked Yes | 37c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.99 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 47c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.9 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c70…a5e7backed No | 71c | 27.39$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.94 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 52c | 26.26$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.58 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 64c | 25.24$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.14 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 58cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f72…22c7backed Yes | 68c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd20…6159backed Yes | 70c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1620…227bbacked No | 62c | 19.31$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.34 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc23…5a3dbacked Yes | 62c | 18.33$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8427…25a5backed Yes | 65c | 16.82$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 74cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will USD be between 1.6M and 1.7M Iranian rials on June 30?this page
- Will USD be at least 2.0M Iranian rials on June 30?No won
- Will USD be between 1.5M and 1.6M Iranian rials on June 30?No won
- Will USD be between 1.7M and 1.8M Iranian rials on June 30?Yes won
- Will USD be between 1.8M and 1.9M Iranian rials on June 30?No won
- Will USD be between 1.9M and 2.0M Iranian rials on June 30?No won
- Will USD be less than 1.5M Iranian rials on June 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.