Middle East · resolved market
Will USD be between 1.5M and 1.6M Iranian rials on June 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x88cf3c1187a3195b1b378ea2ca176f11fcb9420ad4750d15bee56346120829ee
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,479
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,290
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,479 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2a58…b808backed Yes | 37c | 4,595$1,698 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,698.38 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +1.4wins | +0.10per pick | 24cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43cf…88fabacked Yes | 8c | 2,720$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.02 | 81 | 45.7%37 W · 44 L | +6.2wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbd69…e123backed Yes | 23c | 696.8$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.73 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.8wins | +0.14per pick | 32cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbf4d…33edbacked Yes | 27c | 522.93$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.52 | 79 | 46.8%37 W · 42 L | -5.3wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 72c | 503.43$363 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.76 | 197 | 39.1%77 W · 120 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x389a…397dbacked Yes | 21c | 477.39$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 62 | 51.6%32 W · 30 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 75c | 462.97$349 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.77 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -35%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…2c72backed Yes | 4c | 433$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.16 | 291 | 29.9%87 W · 204 L | +21.5wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 19c | 253.4$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.35 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x511f…cbe1backed No | 77c | 252.17$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.56 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 66c | 242.21$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.37 | 865 | 42.3%366 W · 499 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Yes | 15c | 213.91$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.72 | 53 | 13.2%7 W · 46 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 17cpaid | -62.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf524…8178backed Yes | 6c | 199.26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.11 | 103 | 9.7%10 W · 93 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 71c | 194.15$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.66 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9372…5093backed Yes | 6c | 185$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.36 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 68c | 183$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.13 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -23%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 78c | 170.25$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.26 | 217 | 26.7%58 W · 159 L | -9.0wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 61c | 163.12$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.39 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f66…3a50backed Yes | 63c | 157.98$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 182 | 46.2%84 W · 98 L | -15.4wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 64c | 135$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.18 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5146…ac5ebacked Yes | 24c | 134.27$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x077c…8b1fbacked No | 75c | 119.98$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.8 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21a3…9e97backed Yes | 17c | 105$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.28 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 41c | 100.5$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.27 | 366 | 26.8%98 W · 268 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f2a…3706backed No | 73c | 100$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.1 | 55 | 27.3%15 W · 40 L | -7.4wins | -0.14per pick | 41cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed No | 78c | 100$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.8 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22fa…8135backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.13 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +3.2wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +86.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 62c | 97$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.48 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x044c…6987backed No | 57c | 90.7$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.92 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +2.2wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +71.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x27ab…e521backed No | 66c | 61.6$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.89 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +58.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 44c | 59.3$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.4 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +41.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 50c | 55.82$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.8 | 218 | 31.2%68 W · 150 L | +6.3wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21c0…38d9backed No | 44c | 45.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.32 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e66…0d3abacked No | 44c | 44.94$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.94 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -2.9wins | -0.11per pick | 42cpaid | -50%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 76c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 58cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcc…701bbacked Yes | 39c | 38.74$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.05 | 65 | 53.8%35 W · 30 L | +5.4wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 37c | 35.29$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.26 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +35.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 79c | 33.25$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.99 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 36cpaid | -74.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0dd8…1a9bbacked Yes | 68c | 32.52$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.08 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x57d8…a490backed Yes | 52c | 31.64$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.45 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 58cpaid | +54.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x937f…104abacked No | 79c | 25.21$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.28 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +2.0wins | +0.65per pick | 35cpaid | +550.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x61f2…e77abacked No | 68c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.12 | 47 | 36.2%17 W · 30 L | -15.5wins | -0.33per pick | 69cpaid | -51%equal weight | 26-0.22 edge/pick |
| 0x3d60…6df2backed Yes | 50c | 22.46$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.21 | 60 | 60%36 W · 24 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 55 | 45.5%25 W · 30 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 78c | 15.38$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.38 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will USD be between 1.5M and 1.6M Iranian rials on June 30?this page
- Will USD be at least 2.0M Iranian rials on June 30?No won
- Will USD be between 1.6M and 1.7M Iranian rials on June 30?No won
- Will USD be between 1.7M and 1.8M Iranian rials on June 30?Yes won
- Will USD be between 1.8M and 1.9M Iranian rials on June 30?No won
- Will USD be between 1.9M and 2.0M Iranian rials on June 30?No won
- Will USD be less than 1.5M Iranian rials on June 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.