Middle East · resolved market
Will USD be between 1.7M and 1.8M Iranian rials on June 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x32c90d639bbdae7bf22fd9cad686ee0bf0f18553c880a24605606d594557e0c9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,048
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,968
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,048 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbf4d…33edbacked Yes | 71c | 2,497$1,778 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$718.36 | 79 | 46.8%37 W · 42 L | -5.3wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2a58…b808backed Yes | 12c | 2,138$259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,878.5 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +1.4wins | +0.10per pick | 24cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae58…e5c5backed No | 9c | 1,325$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.54 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x34ce…0b77backed Yes | 20c | 877.17$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$705.56 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 29cpaid | +40.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x389a…397dbacked Yes | 23c | 703.77$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$539.77 | 62 | 51.6%32 W · 30 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 20c | 664.49$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.17 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 77c | 563.47$434 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$433.62 | 197 | 39.1%77 W · 120 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x077c…8b1fbacked No | 22c | 559.98$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.93 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 71c | 445.5$318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$318.12 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 38cpaid | -65.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ed0…9c4fbacked Yes | 22c | 429.78$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$334.51 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc427…6f4dbacked Yes | 56c | 426.77$239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.58 | 57 | 45.6%26 W · 31 L | +7.9wins | +0.14per pick | 32cpaid | +44%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 52c | 367.98$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.2 | 857 | 25.2%216 W · 641 L | -115.1wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 75c | 339$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255.06 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044c…6987backed Yes | 23c | 300$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +2.2wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +71.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 63c | 282.59$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.49 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 77c | 274.76$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.07 | 643 | 39.3%253 W · 390 L | -59.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 66c | 269.58$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.55 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa7fe…1f3ebacked No | 9c | 229.98$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.06 | 216 | 31.9%69 W · 147 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e85…8aaabacked Yes | 6c | 207.58$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.26 | 75 | 17.3%13 W · 62 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 18c | 202.87$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.54 | 589 | 27.2%160 W · 429 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf33e…0ab8backed Yes | 37c | 200$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -2.7wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 24c | 161.84$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.45 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.20per pick | 50cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x954d…cd39backed Yes | 31c | 160.55$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.55 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | +5.5wins | +0.31per pick | 42cpaid | +92.2%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xf41c…ba2fbacked Yes | 19c | 158.72$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.32 | 73 | 34.2%25 W · 48 L | -7.8wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 32c | 147.17$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.84 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -55%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad65…8c6bbacked Yes | 20c | 143.04$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.04 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x937f…104abacked Yes | 17c | 141.01$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.49 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +2.0wins | +0.65per pick | 35cpaid | +550.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x22fa…8135backed Yes | 14c | 130$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.06 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +3.2wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +86.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x62bc…5053backed Yes | 26c | 127.7$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.76 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +44.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 19c | 124$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.44 | 342 | 34.8%119 W · 223 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2086…8ef7backed Yes | 16c | 111.08$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.39 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7828…e558backed Yes | 24c | 108.63$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.56 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21a3…9e97backed Yes | 19c | 105$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.89 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 80c | 96.98$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.38 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.25per pick | 45cpaid | -70.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 22c | 96.95$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.7 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 76c | 87.73$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cf…88fabacked No | 59c | 76.67$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.9 | 81 | 45.7%37 W · 44 L | +6.2wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x34e8…a6e4backed Yes | 25c | 74.76$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.07 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 73c | 64.21$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.08 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 77c | 60$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.2 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6334…227fbacked No | 20c | 55.19$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 24c | 52.74$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.24 | 865 | 42.3%366 W · 499 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x74d4…8fcdbacked Yes | 20c | 51.74$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.64 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.28per pick | 39cpaid | +118.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb89d…ead7backed Yes | 37c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.63per pick | 37cpaid | +170.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6130…b206backed Yes | 38c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.62per pick | 38cpaid | +163.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9631…a38cbacked Yes | 32c | 50$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +37.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa823…1af5backed Yes | 29c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.5 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +2.4wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed Yes | 21c | 47.82$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.62 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +41.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked Yes | 76c | 29.45$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.98 | 99 | 81.8%81 W · 18 L | +9.7wins | +0.10per pick | 72cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf83e…4663backed No | 59c | 26.26$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.46 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -2.6wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 59c | 26.25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.71 | 344 | 32.3%111 W · 233 L | -31.8wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa639…f5e8backed No | 71c | 25.01$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.76 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.25per pick | 67cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 74c | 17.04$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.56 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will USD be between 1.7M and 1.8M Iranian rials on June 30?this page
- Will USD be at least 2.0M Iranian rials on June 30?No won
- Will USD be between 1.5M and 1.6M Iranian rials on June 30?No won
- Will USD be between 1.6M and 1.7M Iranian rials on June 30?No won
- Will USD be between 1.8M and 1.9M Iranian rials on June 30?No won
- Will USD be between 1.9M and 2.0M Iranian rials on June 30?No won
- Will USD be less than 1.5M Iranian rials on June 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.