Middle East · resolved market
Will Oman sign the US x Iran memorandum of understanding?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1f864d3bf765fa0f458da7ffc312fd9cc6cf6edebf8465fced619fff81ffa8f6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,306
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,256
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,306 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5011…220ebacked Yes | 23c | 1,970$453 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$452.81 | 109 | 28.4%31 W · 78 L | -15.2wins | -0.14per pick | 42cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…2c72backed Yes | 11c | 1,000$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.22 | 291 | 29.9%87 W · 204 L | +21.5wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbdd7…6497backed No | 77c | 1,000$770 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.26per pick | 49cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e1d…1c4bbacked Yes | 4c | 928.11$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 2c | 560.26$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.93 | 423 | 11.6%49 W · 374 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ee9…197fbacked No | 79c | 460$364 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.1 | 296 | 53.7%159 W · 137 L | +20.2wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +104.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9b5f…11c5backed Yes | 3c | 452.49$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 143 | 25.9%37 W · 106 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed Yes | 20c | 407.59$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.39 | 124 | 32.3%40 W · 84 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1851…ae47backed Yes | 14c | 400$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 247 | 12.1%30 W · 217 L | +6.4wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e8…9fbdbacked Yes | 7c | 322.22$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.67 | 274 | 2.9%8 W · 266 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 3cpaid | -58.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 8c | 266.89$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.41 | 462 | 5%23 W · 439 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x095b…8a05backed Yes | 13c | 242$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.46 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -2.9wins | -0.14per pick | 29cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 6c | 207.73$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.77 | 419 | 5.3%22 W · 397 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0739…aba8backed Yes | 13c | 200$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 90 | 51.1%46 W · 44 L | +15.2wins | +0.17per pick | 34cpaid | +52.3%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 77c | 200$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 119 | 44.5%53 W · 66 L | -17.8wins | -0.15per pick | 59cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 17c | 194$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.86 | 865 | 42.3%366 W · 499 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x03e1…e180backed Yes | 21c | 190.4$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.98 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | +2.9wins | +0.08per pick | 36cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf058…e173backed Yes | 14c | 172$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.08 | 159 | 6.9%11 W · 148 L | -4.3wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x983a…ca05backed No | 78c | 150$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed Yes | 23c | 149$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.27 | 110 | 40%44 W · 66 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed Yes | 23c | 149$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.27 | 72 | 41.7%30 W · 42 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes | 11c | 118.8$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.07 | 359 | 21.4%77 W · 282 L | -23.8wins | -0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 39c | 105$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.2 | 366 | 26.8%98 W · 268 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f26…93bcbacked Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.12per pick | 41cpaid | -56.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d01…9725backed Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x168f…9e00backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 171 | 29.2%50 W · 121 L | -9.4wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa99…dbbfbacked No | 61c | 100$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 101 | 41.6%42 W · 59 L | +6.0wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +56.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb254…ee4fbacked Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 24 | 12.5%3 W · 21 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 26c | 90$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbea0…e19dbacked No | 75c | 69.18$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.1 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb720…15e5backed Yes | 40c | 60$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.22 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.25per pick | 42cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2d91…f592backed Yes | 39c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 66 | 31.8%21 W · 45 L | -7.1wins | -0.11per pick | 43cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a7…95ebbacked No | 77c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6640…2ffebacked No | 76c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -2.6wins | -0.17per pick | 57cpaid | -42%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6fef…66ecbacked Yes | 23c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +2.8wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2a34…56cfbacked Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | +64.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 48c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 857 | 25.2%216 W · 641 L | -115.1wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…6b2bbacked No | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x18dc…5e90backed No | 54c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -2.2wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -56.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe5ad…39c6backed No | 79c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35e8…e42bbacked Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09b4…494bbacked Yes | 41c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.14per pick | 30cpaid | -78.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a2c…64f0backed Yes | 25c | 45$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +4.1wins | +0.19per pick | 45cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd0a3…962fbacked No | 65c | 35$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.25 | 86 | 44.2%38 W · 48 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e4f…a849backed No | 80c | 23$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 43 | 39.5%17 W · 26 L | -3.6wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x34a9…4cfdbacked No | 79c | 19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.99 | 69 | 42%29 W · 40 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Oman sign the US x Iran memorandum of understanding?this page
- Will Egypt sign the US x Iran memorandum of understanding?No won
- Will Israel sign the US x Iran memorandum of understanding?No won
- Will Jordan sign the US x Iran memorandum of understanding?No won
- Will Kuwait sign the US x Iran memorandum of understanding?No won
- Will Lebanon sign the US x Iran memorandum of understanding?No won
- Will Pakistan sign the US x Iran memorandum of understanding?Yes won
- Will Qatar sign the US x Iran memorandum of understanding?No won
- Will Saudi Arabia sign the US x Iran memorandum of understanding?No won
- Will Syria sign the US x Iran memorandum of understanding?No won
- Will Turkey sign the US x Iran memorandum of understanding?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.