Middle East · resolved market
Will Pakistan sign the US x Iran memorandum of understanding?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbc05d7141fc2e4494d0ad4c2d25c2bec03ac50023ba8d191961e8c145a250d34
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $32,285
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,856
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,285 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1fce…a7c8backed No | 0c | 3,869$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.18per pick | 10cpaid | +238%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x58c0…1c8ebacked Yes | 69c | 1,923$1,320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$602.15 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | -2.5wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1ee9…197fbacked No | 61c | 1,816$1,107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,107.01 | 296 | 53.7%159 W · 137 L | +20.2wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +104.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe605…ac5fbacked Yes | 70c | 1,586$1,107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$478.54 | 234 | 20.9%49 W · 185 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked No | 29c | 1,076$314 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$313.71 | 359 | 21.4%77 W · 282 L | -23.8wins | -0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2b62…5203backed No | 15c | 1,033$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152 | 57 | 31.6%18 W · 39 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed Yes | 28c | 838.84$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$606.91 | 489 | 23.5%115 W · 374 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf23…aa95backed Yes | 50c | 555$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$279.8 | 120 | 54.2%65 W · 55 L | +10.7wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8674…0d1ebacked No | 23c | 530$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.2 | 126 | 38.1%48 W · 78 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5011…220ebacked Yes | 50c | 500$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250 | 109 | 28.4%31 W · 78 L | -15.2wins | -0.14per pick | 42cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd0a3…962fbacked No | 50c | 475$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.5 | 86 | 44.2%38 W · 48 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x168f…9e00backed No | 49c | 424$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.76 | 171 | 29.2%50 W · 121 L | -9.4wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 54c | 400$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214 | 643 | 39.3%253 W · 390 L | -59.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 23c | 387$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.69 | 217 | 26.7%58 W · 159 L | -9.0wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 19c | 364$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$294.84 | 423 | 11.6%49 W · 374 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa619…1103backed No | 61c | 359.39$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.43 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 56cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 12c | 303.53$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.87 | 360 | 35.3%127 W · 233 L | -30.4wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x92d0…269ebacked No | 68c | 288.67$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.49 | 409 | 39.6%162 W · 247 L | +10.2wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 24c | 282.7$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.99 | 589 | 27.2%160 W · 429 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 16c | 272.33$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.83 | 396 | 21%83 W · 313 L | -57.0wins | -0.14per pick | 35cpaid | -64.1%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x34a9…4cfdbacked No | 64c | 246.89$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.88 | 69 | 42%29 W · 40 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2712…eb71backed No | 48c | 209.97$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 55 | 40%22 W · 33 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b7…d5f3backed No | 48c | 200$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.5 | 253 | 39.5%100 W · 153 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -19%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed Yes | 50c | 188.39$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.2 | 110 | 40%44 W · 66 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e4f…a849backed No | 66c | 162.68$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.85 | 43 | 39.5%17 W · 26 L | -3.6wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x08d0…006ebacked Yes | 49c | 158.82$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.82 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.12per pick | 22cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x557e…5007backed Yes | 38c | 146.99$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.82 | 65 | 46.2%30 W · 35 L | +8.4wins | +0.13per pick | 33cpaid | +92.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 17c | 142$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 181 | 35.9%65 W · 116 L | -6.6wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf225…cc69backed No | 45c | 124.37$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.08 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -2.0wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c4…395dbacked Yes | 48c | 110$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.2 | 59 | 54.2%32 W · 27 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x121d…832abacked Yes | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 47 | 34%16 W · 31 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 47c | 92$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.24 | 865 | 42.3%366 W · 499 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 47c | 84.37$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.65 | 678 | 41.6%282 W · 396 L | -20.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedba…56b5backed Yes | 24c | 82.51$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.51 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +2.3wins | +0.26per pick | 41cpaid | +52.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6cdb…8a82backed No | 42c | 79.88$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.16 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 27c | 75.68$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.52 | 153 | 47.1%72 W · 81 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d48…678cbacked Yes | 50c | 66.1$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.98 | 49 | 44.9%22 W · 27 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37e6…f35cbacked No | 70c | 56.64$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.49 | 186 | 39.8%74 W · 112 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc2db…6865backed No | 80c | 55$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.8 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -3.4wins | -0.12per pick | 57cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x081a…66d0backed Yes | 47c | 54.99$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.15 | 114 | 36%41 W · 73 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed No | 77c | 50.17$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.46 | 186 | 40.9%76 W · 110 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -20%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d91…f592backed No | 56c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 66 | 31.8%21 W · 45 L | -7.1wins | -0.11per pick | 43cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6f92…ecc7backed Yes | 49c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b8c…4df4backed Yes | 51c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…6b2bbacked Yes | 49c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5ad…39c6backed Yes | 53c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd7aa…c812backed Yes | 49c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd064…c4d1backed No | 57c | 49.1$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.23 | 67 | 53.7%36 W · 31 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf52…55d6backed No | 47c | 47.63$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.39 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28b8…5e00backed Yes | 31c | 45.84$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.84 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | +4.1wins | +0.14per pick | 23cpaid | +36.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…c548backed Yes | 26c | 44$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.56 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 26c | 44$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.56 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x369c…eab1backed Yes | 48c | 37.5$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.65 | 61 | 29.5%18 W · 43 L | -8.3wins | -0.14per pick | 43cpaid | -34%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x60a8…7d37backed No | 70c | 28.6$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.02 | 118 | 54.2%64 W · 54 L | +9.7wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 67c | 24.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.74 | 344 | 32.3%111 W · 233 L | -31.8wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 50c | 24.48$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.12 | 857 | 25.2%216 W · 641 L | -115.1wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x420f…9090backed Yes | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcc…701bbacked Yes | 75c | 19.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 65 | 53.8%35 W · 30 L | +5.4wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 79c | 18$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.28 | 99 | 81.8%81 W · 18 L | +9.7wins | +0.10per pick | 72cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Pakistan sign the US x Iran memorandum of understanding?this page
- Will Egypt sign the US x Iran memorandum of understanding?No won
- Will Israel sign the US x Iran memorandum of understanding?No won
- Will Jordan sign the US x Iran memorandum of understanding?No won
- Will Kuwait sign the US x Iran memorandum of understanding?No won
- Will Lebanon sign the US x Iran memorandum of understanding?No won
- Will Oman sign the US x Iran memorandum of understanding?No won
- Will Qatar sign the US x Iran memorandum of understanding?No won
- Will Saudi Arabia sign the US x Iran memorandum of understanding?No won
- Will Syria sign the US x Iran memorandum of understanding?No won
- Will Turkey sign the US x Iran memorandum of understanding?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.