Middle East · resolved market
Will Israel sign the US x Iran memorandum of understanding?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x16d2c5d14d3ffcf4b3a9265238aeff79a78d572b6122e6118b5e76a25712c9a6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,469
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,642
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,469 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 13 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf5e8…9fbdbacked Yes | 0c | 13,200$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.6 | 274 | 2.9%8 W · 266 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 3cpaid | -58.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 2c | 1,171$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.75 | 423 | 11.6%49 W · 374 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…2c72backed Yes | 5c | 1,017$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.05 | 291 | 29.9%87 W · 204 L | +21.5wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa52d…18b3backed Yes | 4c | 977.05$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +2.3wins | +0.15per pick | 25cpaid | +58.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x35a4…7b85backed Yes | 3c | 800$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.85 | 53 | 50.9%27 W · 26 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc79…1c2abacked Yes | 3c | 400$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 35 | 22.9%8 W · 27 L | -7.5wins | -0.21per pick | 44cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x0739…aba8backed Yes | 5c | 250.52$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 90 | 51.1%46 W · 44 L | +15.2wins | +0.17per pick | 34cpaid | +52.3%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…e8f8backed No | 78c | 200$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.81 | 341 | 43.4%148 W · 193 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x983a…ca05backed Yes | 7c | 150$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf33e…0ab8backed Yes | 22c | 119.49$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.29 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -2.7wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 23c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 366 | 26.8%98 W · 268 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d91…f592backed Yes | 23c | 49.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 66 | 31.8%21 W · 45 L | -7.1wins | -0.11per pick | 43cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x08a6…f3ccbacked No | 77c | 19.48$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.48 | 46 | 47.8%22 W · 24 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Israel sign the US x Iran memorandum of understanding?this page
- Will Egypt sign the US x Iran memorandum of understanding?No won
- Will Jordan sign the US x Iran memorandum of understanding?No won
- Will Kuwait sign the US x Iran memorandum of understanding?No won
- Will Lebanon sign the US x Iran memorandum of understanding?No won
- Will Oman sign the US x Iran memorandum of understanding?No won
- Will Pakistan sign the US x Iran memorandum of understanding?Yes won
- Will Qatar sign the US x Iran memorandum of understanding?No won
- Will Saudi Arabia sign the US x Iran memorandum of understanding?No won
- Will Syria sign the US x Iran memorandum of understanding?No won
- Will Turkey sign the US x Iran memorandum of understanding?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.