Middle East · resolved market
Will Qatar sign the US x Iran memorandum of understanding?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x823bb9eddcf8fc7e3e4364a3f532ab2b77e2f52b288ea551688550f1b5c6e663
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $39,202
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $36,462
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $39,202 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x67d0…db7abacked Yes | 10c | 8,585$866 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$865.73 | 136 | 17.6%24 W · 112 L | +5.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +58.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ee9…197fbacked No | 72c | 1,669$1,209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$459.67 | 296 | 53.7%159 W · 137 L | +20.2wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +104.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe397…bfcbbacked Yes | 6c | 1,600$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 107 | 47.7%51 W · 56 L | +6.6wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +26%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes | 6c | 1,263$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.58 | 359 | 21.4%77 W · 282 L | -23.8wins | -0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 3c | 1,199$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.9 | 423 | 11.6%49 W · 374 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f92…2c2dbacked No | 63c | 1,110$702 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$408.16 | 55 | 23.6%13 W · 42 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc79…1c2abacked Yes | 12c | 801.86$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.22 | 35 | 22.9%8 W · 27 L | -7.5wins | -0.21per pick | 44cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 9c | 686.04$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.01 | 462 | 5%23 W · 439 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x946e…1225backed Yes | 13c | 667.61$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87 | 72 | 29.2%21 W · 51 L | +5.1wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb254…ee4fbacked Yes | 13c | 615.38$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 24 | 12.5%3 W · 21 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 15c | 572.24$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.23 | 678 | 41.6%282 W · 396 L | -20.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed Yes | 8c | 531.39$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.51 | 490 | 23.5%115 W · 375 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1851…ae47backed Yes | 13c | 500$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67 | 247 | 12.1%30 W · 217 L | +6.4wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b5f…11c5backed Yes | 11c | 498.51$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 143 | 25.9%37 W · 106 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x168f…9e00backed Yes | 12c | 450$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 171 | 29.2%50 W · 121 L | -9.4wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…8003backed Yes | 17c | 355$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.45 | 85 | 15.3%13 W · 72 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…6b2bbacked Yes | 24c | 350$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.5 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf72…2a2cbacked Yes | 10c | 327$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.7 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -52.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0a3…962fbacked Yes | 27c | 300.42$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82 | 86 | 44.2%38 W · 48 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x11f8…1c4ebacked Yes | 15c | 250$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 110 | 37.3%41 W · 69 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 12c | 244.48$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.01 | 288 | 27.8%80 W · 208 L | -10.4wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2e7…843ebacked Yes | 13c | 205$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.6 | 58 | 8.6%5 W · 53 L | -3.5wins | -0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -73.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f2a…3706backed Yes | 11c | 200$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 55 | 27.3%15 W · 40 L | -7.4wins | -0.14per pick | 41cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 122 | 39.3%48 W · 74 L | -8.3wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf524…8178backed Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 103 | 9.7%10 W · 93 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf058…e173backed Yes | 12c | 200$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 159 | 6.9%11 W · 148 L | -4.3wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x095b…8a05backed Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -2.9wins | -0.14per pick | 29cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa6ea…b02abacked Yes | 9c | 195.97$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.64 | 105 | 13.3%14 W · 91 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa7fe…1f3ebacked Yes | 12c | 166.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.04 | 216 | 31.9%69 W · 147 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b7…d5f3backed No | 59c | 150$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.5 | 253 | 39.5%100 W · 153 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -19%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94ae…d801backed No | 71c | 150$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.25 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 23c | 145.45$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.22 | 396 | 21%83 W · 313 L | -57.0wins | -0.14per pick | 35cpaid | -64.1%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed Yes | 38c | 133$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.54 | 124 | 32.3%40 W · 84 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x03e1…e180backed Yes | 31c | 133$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.74 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | +2.9wins | +0.08per pick | 36cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0cb1…dea6backed No | 71c | 113$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.27 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +2.1wins | +0.13per pick | 56cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e4f…a849backed No | 76c | 101.81$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.56 | 43 | 39.5%17 W · 26 L | -3.6wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 36c | 100$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 366 | 26.8%98 W · 268 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x63e0…4ca5backed No | 69c | 100$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.5 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +3.3wins | +0.17per pick | 53cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 419 | 5.3%22 W · 397 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6c…e3f5backed Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9448…b72ebacked Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 22c | 93$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.68 | 865 | 42.3%366 W · 499 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5011…220ebacked Yes | 29c | 89.59$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.03 | 109 | 28.4%31 W · 78 L | -15.2wins | -0.14per pick | 42cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6a2c…64f0backed Yes | 34c | 80.65$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.02 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +4.1wins | +0.19per pick | 45cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2277…6604backed Yes | 37c | 79.27$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.33 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 15c | 72.72$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 87 | 39.1%34 W · 53 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 74c | 68$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.51 | 217 | 26.7%58 W · 159 L | -9.0wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed Yes | 32c | 66$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.21 | 186 | 40.9%76 W · 110 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -20%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb92a…f51cbacked Yes | 37c | 60$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.2 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x081a…66d0backed Yes | 36c | 51$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.36 | 114 | 36%41 W · 73 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d91…f592backed Yes | 43c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 66 | 31.8%21 W · 45 L | -7.1wins | -0.11per pick | 43cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x15e1…1b3dbacked Yes | 41c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -26%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x18dc…5e90backed No | 56c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -2.2wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -56.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe5ad…39c6backed Yes | 41c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x983a…ca05backed Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.75 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa619…1103backed No | 77c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 56cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9341…d75fbacked Yes | 37c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4bb2…8948backed Yes | 34c | 49.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +19%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd385…dd8abacked No | 68c | 49.35$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.69 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +59.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3373…3716backed No | 66c | 17.34$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.9 | 117 | 38.5%45 W · 72 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Qatar sign the US x Iran memorandum of understanding?this page
- Will Egypt sign the US x Iran memorandum of understanding?No won
- Will Israel sign the US x Iran memorandum of understanding?No won
- Will Jordan sign the US x Iran memorandum of understanding?No won
- Will Kuwait sign the US x Iran memorandum of understanding?No won
- Will Lebanon sign the US x Iran memorandum of understanding?No won
- Will Oman sign the US x Iran memorandum of understanding?No won
- Will Pakistan sign the US x Iran memorandum of understanding?Yes won
- Will Saudi Arabia sign the US x Iran memorandum of understanding?No won
- Will Syria sign the US x Iran memorandum of understanding?No won
- Will Turkey sign the US x Iran memorandum of understanding?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.