AI · resolved market
Meta "Mango" model released by June 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe2b3aca20d136af79f908b7c9cba9832b338e2c02083aa114444f273621b17b4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,396
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,808
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,396 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x07d4…8991backed Yes | 5c | 1,931$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 629 | 1.3%8 W · 621 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -88.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d5e…64ddbacked Yes | 70c | 1,138$799 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$799.16 | 27 | 63%17 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33db…417abacked No | 46c | 846.83$392 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$454.96 | 190 | 40.5%77 W · 113 L | +14.4wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x645a…fd84backed No | 50c | 837.89$423 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$414.89 | 56 | 44.6%25 W · 31 L | -7.2wins | -0.13per pick | 57cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 3c | 808.41$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.98 | 267 | 4.9%13 W · 254 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f48…e69bbacked No | 31c | 645$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$445.05 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 44c | 572.89$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.65 | 322 | 28.9%93 W · 229 L | -16.0wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x91ed…ea59backed Yes | 17c | 544.14$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x853c…bd03backed No | 50c | 331.18$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.02 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x11f3…d859backed No | 14c | 325$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$279.5 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 12c | 235.12$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.51 | 415 | 7.2%30 W · 385 L | -26.1wins | -0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -69%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2180…5345backed No | 28c | 232$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.86 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc353…fa0bbacked No | 65c | 205.57$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.67 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 9c | 202.94$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.43 | 294 | 30.6%90 W · 204 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2001…6e8cbacked Yes | 68c | 146.83$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4aab…38ccbacked No | 18c | 127.5$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.18 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 17c | 107.6$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.54 | 150 | 47.3%71 W · 79 L | +6.5wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x095b…8a05backed Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3606…4e08backed No | 65c | 100$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.4 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…18abbacked Yes | 42c | 95.24$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbde…3dc9backed Yes | 29c | 88$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.52 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfb…ebbfbacked No | 71c | 88$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.52 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 64c | 77.5$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.97 | 729 | 35.5%259 W · 470 L | -57.8wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed No | 64c | 52.54$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.69 | 185 | 44.3%82 W · 103 L | -7.5wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 60c | 51.37$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.75 | 893 | 17.1%153 W · 740 L | -144.9wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x370e…5df3backed Yes | 69c | 50$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.5 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c15…9667backed No | 31c | 50$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.5 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 65c | 46.55$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.29 | 574 | 26.8%154 W · 420 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99ba…6391backed No | 42c | 44.82$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.05 | 60 | 33.3%20 W · 40 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 28c | 42.05$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.28 | 256 | 32.8%84 W · 172 L | -24.1wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked No | 55c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 120 | 50.8%61 W · 59 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4916…f56fbacked No | 52c | 38.44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.51 | 173 | 50.3%87 W · 86 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe751…5a2abacked No | 70c | 36.84$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.01 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce31…19c4backed No | 47c | 32.96$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.43 | 61 | 23%14 W · 47 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe23b…f147backed Yes | 48c | 30.66$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.72 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.20per pick | 23cpaid | +90.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf19…dbdbbacked Yes | 44c | 30.03$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.24 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ba4…09c0backed Yes | 59c | 21.3$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.57 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f35…9ea4backed No | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -2.2wins | -0.20per pick | 75cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Meta "Mango" model released by June 30?this page
- Meta "Mango" model released by March 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.