Ukraine · resolved market
Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xad645ed3504219e22ae4bff2437f21b080e9a750f7e63340f5adf41468fabee7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,336
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,504
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,336 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 78 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb37a…f1b1backed Yes | 74c | 5,434$4,030 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,403.75 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.17per pick | 53cpaid | +101%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd4cf…284fbacked No | 30c | 2,357$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.18per pick | 39cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf727…2aecbacked No | 31c | 1,460$448 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$448 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a23…0f72backed Yes | 65c | 1,189$769 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$419.36 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +3.6wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 14c | 1,140$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.71 | 102 | 4.9%5 W · 97 L | -12.8wins | -0.13per pick | 17cpaid | -91.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf952…ce76backed Yes | 69c | 826.3$574 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252.68 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97d3…3f3cbacked Yes | 64c | 752.24$481 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$271.35 | 38 | 63.2%24 W · 14 L | +2.6wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e3d…8554backed Yes | 65c | 645.72$420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +314.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 36c | 637.37$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.6 | 308 | 37.7%116 W · 192 L | -18.7wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -36%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x51de…9e4abacked Yes | 64c | 540.88$348 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.65 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +2.2wins | +0.32per pick | 25cpaid | +126.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x04e3…69d1backed No | 25c | 500$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +2.1wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +23%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd509…d6b7backed No | 35c | 500$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 26cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf18f…294cbacked Yes | 64c | 500$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | +3.1wins | +0.11per pick | 21cpaid | +148.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9892…0a7bbacked Yes | 65c | 500$325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbab9…3499backed No | 32c | 487$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.68 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefdd…8370backed No | 25c | 438.76$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.97 | 66 | 40.9%27 W · 39 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x49b5…d249backed Yes | 61c | 320.02$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.63 | 68 | 30.9%21 W · 47 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +40.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb7c1…675ebacked No | 40c | 300.43$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.95 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 62cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 32c | 300$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.8 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +41.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3030…86aebacked No | 24c | 280.47$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.31 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2884…d0c3backed No | 23c | 277.6$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.43 | 53 | 56.6%30 W · 23 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2712…eb71backed No | 36c | 276.44$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 34c | 275.99$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.08 | 268 | 35.1%94 W · 174 L | -38.4wins | -0.14per pick | 49cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xea07…c982backed No | 37c | 270.27$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4574…ab3ebacked No | 35c | 200$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | +3.2wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9238…b73ebacked Yes | 60c | 200$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.22 | 353 | 41.9%148 W · 205 L | +24.9wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1ec0…f663backed No | 37c | 189.91$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +4.0wins | +0.19per pick | 33cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb122…b065backed No | 33c | 181.89$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 25c | 159.04$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.38 | 131 | 28.2%37 W · 94 L | -8.8wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbb98…6d3cbacked Yes | 67c | 151.27$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.27 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 50cpaid | -62.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed No | 35c | 150$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.9 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.11per pick | 46cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7dc9…525ebacked No | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x095b…8a05backed No | 36c | 102$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.72 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb10d…3797backed No | 38c | 102$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d58…cfccbacked No | 38c | 100$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.26per pick | 31cpaid | +222.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb886…3024backed No | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x166a…d7edbacked Yes | 63c | 100$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 76 | 56.6%43 W · 33 L | +6.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb980…73b0backed No | 20c | 96.85$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.37 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 29c | 94.8$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.41 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd6…ca1bbacked No | 35c | 93.57$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.29 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03f7…c0ccbacked No | 27c | 91$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.57 | 26 | 19.2%5 W · 21 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed Yes | 63c | 83.39$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.85 | 53 | 37.7%20 W · 33 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed No | 29c | 82$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.68 | 93 | 41.9%39 W · 54 L | -9.6wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x41cb…a5dfbacked Yes | 62c | 76$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.72 | 103 | 43.7%45 W · 58 L | +4.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58e8…bb5abacked No | 18c | 70$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 36c | 69.52$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.9 | 532 | 7%37 W · 495 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac76…9359backed No | 22c | 65.89$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.77 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x60a8…7d37backed Yes | 76c | 65.13$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.74 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 65c | 60$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.3 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +2.1wins | +0.11per pick | 47cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8a08…0eecbacked Yes | 31c | 59.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.4 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -73.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 66c | 53$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.02 | 417 | 36.2%151 W · 266 L | -25.2wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3a59…6c6fbacked No | 40c | 52.45$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 29c | 51.35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.66 | 294 | 16%47 W · 247 L | -53.7wins | -0.18per pick | 34cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x0670…9b51backed No | 39c | 51.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 23cpaid | +705.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd385…dd8abacked No | 37c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.34 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.33per pick | 42cpaid | +74.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed No | 37c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x755d…6accbacked No | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6c…e3f5backed Yes | 66c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.11per pick | 57cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe308…309cbacked No | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6cbd…e951backed No | 25c | 49.76$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.44 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -13%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8056…3485backed No | 36c | 41.19$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x330f…8adabacked Yes | 65c | 41.01$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.35 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d48…678cbacked Yes | 63c | 40$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.8 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc109…450bbacked Yes | 61c | 39.99$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 61 | 36.1%22 W · 39 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b22…3a92backed Yes | 62c | 38.95$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.8 | 69 | 44.9%31 W · 38 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29a1…5645backed Yes | 61c | 36.67$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.3 | 61 | 42.6%26 W · 35 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc960…1c19backed No | 39c | 36$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.04 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6523…89d8backed Yes | 63c | 32.02$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.85 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0cba…bcb0backed Yes | 63c | 31.75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.1wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +77.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 57c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 77 | 35.1%27 W · 50 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd63d…e141backed Yes | 76c | 28.06$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.69 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa667…ceb3backed Yes | 62c | 26.31$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 63 | 49.2%31 W · 32 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d91…f592backed Yes | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7253…9190backed Yes | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 51 | 47.1%24 W · 27 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x758b…0a1cbacked Yes | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7e5…4239backed Yes | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…468fbacked Yes | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -3.1wins | -0.11per pick | 43cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6a2c…64f0backed Yes | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?this page
- Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?Yes won
- Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.