Ukraine · resolved market
Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfc22df0d2ae7205ded5a31ce012d6e5df5c0297817c1a65afa19564326278961
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $37,516
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $36,226
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $37,516 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb37a…f1b1backed Yes | 58c | 3,460$2,023 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,437.16 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.17per pick | 53cpaid | +101%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc999…7abebacked No | 7c | 2,747$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2884…d0c3backed No | 57c | 2,228$1,267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,267.23 | 53 | 56.6%30 W · 23 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6725…1bf9backed Yes | 9c | 1,759$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,597.25 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +3.6wins | +0.45per pick | 30cpaid | +440.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf8fb…19dcbacked No | 4c | 1,585$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4c1…7324backed No | 61c | 1,580$969 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$968.97 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf18f…294cbacked Yes | 18c | 1,250$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,028.85 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | +3.1wins | +0.11per pick | 21cpaid | +148.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed No | 2c | 1,240$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 63 | 1.6%1 W · 62 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 2cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fa…aeecbacked No | 3c | 1,225$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.61 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 38c | 1,199$461 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$461.48 | 102 | 4.9%5 W · 97 L | -12.8wins | -0.13per pick | 17cpaid | -91.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0bfb…26a7backed No | 2c | 1,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +3.1wins | +0.14per pick | 49cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x49b5…d249backed Yes | 7c | 885.75$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$820.74 | 68 | 30.9%21 W · 47 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +40.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 77c | 609.63$468 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$468.12 | 131 | 28.2%37 W · 94 L | -8.8wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5519…1986backed Yes | 39c | 559.43$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$342.42 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +157.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe117…b4e7backed Yes | 20c | 521.24$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$419.34 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e3d…8554backed Yes | 15c | 402.42$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$342.87 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +314.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x92d0…269ebacked Yes | 23c | 357.65$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$274.7 | 72 | 50%36 W · 36 L | +10.0wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf6be…f6a3backed Yes | 14c | 357.14$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$307.41 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.73per pick | 27cpaid | +384.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae8…ec84backed No | 6c | 336.74$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 9c | 334.99$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$304.84 | 107 | 4.7%5 W · 102 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x645a…fd84backed No | 79c | 328.02$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260 | 66 | 54.5%36 W · 30 L | -6.1wins | -0.09per pick | 64cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc4a8…5943backed Yes | 9c | 320.9$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$292.07 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.91per pick | 9cpaid | +1,013%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 21c | 317.86$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.04 | 38 | 31.6%12 W · 26 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe63a…0679backed Yes | 9c | 276.92$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$251.92 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.91per pick | 9cpaid | +1,007.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x901b…37b7backed No | 14c | 234.75$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.73 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbeac…b326backed Yes | 21c | 223.52$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.58 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.79per pick | 21cpaid | +376.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb12d…26d1backed Yes | 13c | 222.44$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.44 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 18cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1927…92afbacked Yes | 12c | 220.47$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.13 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 17cpaid | +303.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9238…b73ebacked Yes | 18c | 220.38$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.95 | 353 | 41.9%148 W · 205 L | +24.9wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 20c | 207.49$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.68 | 532 | 7%37 W · 495 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes | 11c | 201.59$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.54 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +41.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 57c | 186.76$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.08 | 172 | 32%55 W · 117 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0a3…962fbacked Yes | 46c | 178.88$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.38 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51de…9e4abacked Yes | 14c | 169.99$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.09 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +2.2wins | +0.32per pick | 25cpaid | +126.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x73c1…28f3backed Yes | 13c | 159.53$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.65 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.87per pick | 13cpaid | +664.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16da…05c0backed Yes | 18c | 159.3$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.82per pick | 18cpaid | +443.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2099…3024backed No | 8c | 148.01$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.43 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 39c | 147.41$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.46 | 51 | 17.6%9 W · 42 L | -7.6wins | -0.15per pick | 33cpaid | -61.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe762…064bbacked Yes | 20c | 134.84$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.87 | 116 | 45.7%53 W · 63 L | +6.1wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb9e…11d4backed No | 28c | 105.19$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.14per pick | 53cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf952…ce76backed Yes | 72c | 104.36$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.61 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x012b…8ea2backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.30per pick | 37cpaid | +353.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0fac…b5b4backed Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +2.7wins | +0.90per pick | 10cpaid | +1,061.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4f0b…e9d9backed Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +54.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed No | 80c | 94$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.2 | 53 | 37.7%20 W · 33 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10d7…eb3bbacked Yes | 19c | 80.38$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.38 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -17%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x039b…f701backed Yes | 18c | 75$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +154.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1075…19c1backed Yes | 15c | 70$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.5 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 44c | 60.22$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 294 | 16%47 W · 247 L | -53.7wins | -0.18per pick | 34cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x29a1…5645backed Yes | 20c | 60$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 61 | 42.6%26 W · 35 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd9c…be4dbacked No | 60c | 55$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed No | 76c | 50$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 122 | 25.4%31 W · 91 L | +6.4wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21f4…81a6backed No | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed Yes | 74c | 34.46$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.85 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 62cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed No | 79c | 33.67$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.6 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked Yes | 70c | 21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 26 | 84.6%22 W · 4 L | +3.2wins | +0.12per pick | 72cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed No | 59c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 77 | 33.8%26 W · 51 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked No | 62c | 19.38$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.93 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.24per pick | 58cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?this page
- Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?Yes won
- Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.