Ukraine · resolved market
Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x53ef7ed812f66a46b218d7472cffd70e5a22a1ffaef106074f2ab93393a2e374
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,238
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,098
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,238 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd509…d6b7backed No | 26c | 600$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 26cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9892…0a7bbacked Yes | 74c | 599.99$444 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d73…216bbacked Yes | 75c | 585.03$440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.25 | 72 | 47.2%34 W · 38 L | -4.3wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xefdd…8370backed No | 9c | 530.42$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.02 | 66 | 40.9%27 W · 39 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3104…7048backed No | 23c | 430.87$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -62.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51de…9e4abacked Yes | 71c | 421.77$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.77 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +2.2wins | +0.32per pick | 25cpaid | +126.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbab9…3499backed No | 13c | 419.99$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.1 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea07…c982backed No | 25c | 402.87$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 4c | 331$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.24 | 38 | 31.6%12 W · 26 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2712…eb71backed No | 25c | 316.9$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.99 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf727…2aecbacked No | 14c | 300$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 10c | 297.6$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.18 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 20c | 291.26$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.7 | 102 | 4.9%5 W · 97 L | -12.8wins | -0.13per pick | 17cpaid | -91.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xdaa9…02e6backed Yes | 74c | 265.33$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.33 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 8c | 263.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.41 | 131 | 28.2%37 W · 94 L | -8.8wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x97d3…3f3cbacked No | 7c | 230.63$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.54 | 38 | 63.2%24 W · 14 L | +2.6wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x758b…0a1cbacked No | 26c | 170$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.57 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e7…40b4backed Yes | 70c | 144.33$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.6 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7c1…675ebacked Yes | 76c | 108$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.92 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 62cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd6…ca1bbacked No | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0285…1471backed No | 31c | 100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb980…73b0backed Yes | 79c | 96.9$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.35 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 25c | 95$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.48 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1075…19c1backed No | 25c | 65.33$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.33 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1476…e7e2backed Yes | 78c | 59.67$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.22 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +107.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 29c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 77 | 35.1%27 W · 50 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5bae…2955backed Yes | 79c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +2.4wins | +0.27per pick | 62cpaid | +68.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…468fbacked No | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -3.1wins | -0.11per pick | 43cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed Yes | 77c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 78c | 48$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.56 | 268 | 35.1%94 W · 174 L | -38.4wins | -0.14per pick | 49cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x1431…a949backed Yes | 69c | 44.8$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.89 | 36 | 80.6%29 W · 7 L | +10.1wins | +0.28per pick | 53cpaid | +55.7%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x40c5…5cbabacked No | 26c | 39.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 74c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +2.1wins | +0.11per pick | 47cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6c…e3f5backed Yes | 77c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.11per pick | 57cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x41cb…a5dfbacked Yes | 72c | 29.99$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 103 | 43.7%45 W · 58 L | +4.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5144…37c9backed Yes | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.9 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +164.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?this page
- Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?Yes won
- Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.