TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

China Taiwan · resolved market

Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of June 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
China Taiwanevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$57,687
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$65,485

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $57,687 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 109 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in China Taiwan is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in China Taiwan
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x07d4…8991backed No1c8,300$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42474.3%2 W · 45 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick2cpaid+286.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No15c2,633$398 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$397.5740%0 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No21c1,895$404 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$403.84933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.09per pick43cpaid-51%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x958d…3501backed Yes76c1,392$1,052 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$340.161637.5%6 W · 10 L-2.7wins-0.17per pick54cpaid-45.8%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x58c0…1c8ebacked Yes79c1,097$864 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$232.99333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-57.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8b71…917cbacked No7c1,000$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7020%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked No8c721.77$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.42563.6%2 W · 54 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-29.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1e20…a1aabacked Yes67c712.35$476 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$236.35366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.16per pick50cpaid-7.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7365…64dabacked No22c668.07$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.052352.2%12 W · 11 L+4.4wins+0.19per pick33cpaid+10.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No16c659.71$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.371277.9%10 W · 117 L-2.6wins-0.02per pick10cpaid-38%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked No16c627.13$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.62433.3%8 W · 16 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-32.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No31c596$184 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$183.681050%5 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-13.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x511f…cbe1backed No38c554$208 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$208.04742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-23.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x46b4…72e9backed No23c514.25$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.610%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x942e…be27backed No25c511.71$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.64837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick35cpaid+15.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5e84…8e88backed Yes77c500$385 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1151100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No8c454$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.08333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-55.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd900…cab4backed No3c453.51$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1520%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4f1d…8de2backed No17c423.52$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.91540%2 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-21.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No13c408.29$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.055345.3%24 W · 29 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-23.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0482…6b0abacked Yes55c392.09$216 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$176.222810.7%3 W · 25 L-2.2wins-0.08per pick18cpaid-79.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc518…2594backed No8c382.63$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.1630%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8b44…63fbbacked No15c381.87$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.122626.9%7 W · 19 L+1.6wins+0.06per pick21cpaid-9.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb0d6…7475backed No26c374.38$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.8820%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x23cb…0357backed No38c347.56$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.86425%1 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.24per pick49cpaid-68.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked No19c320.25$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.712445.8%11 W · 13 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-21.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5c27…1555backed Yes73c315.42$229 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.14333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.29per pick62cpaid-54.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked No24c307.57$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.82733.3%9 W · 18 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick30cpaid+88.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa328…4977backed No18c286.88$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.1440%0 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No17c286.09$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.241050%5 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-27%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8575…87febacked No28c283.96$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.77944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-10.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbd14…76b4backed No9c272.7$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.711010%1 W · 9 L-1.0wins-0.10per pick20cpaid-85.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcfff…673dbacked No24c245$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.35728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.09per pick37cpaid-48.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No24c235.47$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.626933.3%23 W · 46 L-3.9wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-32.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xafa8…9379backed No9c222.22$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc326…1db1backed No17c220.86$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.62757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.1wins+0.16per pick41cpaid+3.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc71b…e265backed Yes73c216.57$159 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.892718.5%5 W · 22 L-1.1wins-0.04per pick23cpaid-37.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe4ca…1383backed No5c214.16$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.711346.2%6 W · 7 L+2.5wins+0.19per pick27cpaid+43.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x758b…0a1cbacked No33c208.49$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.56650%3 W · 3 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0bfb…26a7backed No16c199.98$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32862.5%5 W · 3 L+2.8wins+0.35per pick28cpaid+144.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x095b…8a05backed No12c199$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.8810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x9cc7…fc5fbacked Yes74c173.01$129 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.451100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+34.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb31b…b140backed Yes75c168.25$126 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.65450%2 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+37.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x63eb…d3a6backed No8c159.56$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.7610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe347…b438backed No28c151.21$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.9757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.09per pick48cpaid-3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x196b…01a5backed Yes80c149.52$119 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.031100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No20c147.77$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.4944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-32.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb8ad…ff58backed No17c144.37$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.66728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.12per pick40cpaid-62.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xac4a…bf1ebacked No11c143.57$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.584723.4%11 W · 36 L+0.1wins0.00per pick23cpaid-13%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9474…5091backed No25c141.77$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.83312.1%4 W · 29 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick10cpaid-47.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5bab…3995backed Yes73c137.21$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.212100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+62.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3959…16d7backed No12c130.25$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf257…3ed5backed Yes77c129.87$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.872100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbc71…5919backed Yes78c128.21$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.211100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No21c126.02$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.93432.4%11 W · 23 L+1.3wins+0.04per pick29cpaid-5.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7cf2…111dbacked Yes80c125.38$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.371100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9eda…6e19backed No25c123.64$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.1420%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed No9c114.88$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.34464.3%2 W · 44 L+0.1wins0.00per pick4cpaid+42.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd27d…95cebacked No10c113.51$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.3510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7d66…ecf0backed Yes66c106.1$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.13100%3 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+41.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4435…786fbacked No38c101.99$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.76425%1 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.14per pick39cpaid-44.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x70ca…2443backed Yes70c101.17$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.65450%2 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-26.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7e80…631bbacked No22c100.93$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.393327.3%9 W · 24 L-4.4wins-0.13per pick41cpaid-40.7%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xc3cd…816cbacked No16c100$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161625%4 W · 12 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick24cpaid+100.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa794…42adbacked No26c100$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2640%0 W · 4 L-1.4wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5f2f…756abacked Yes71c100$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29475%3 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.10per pick65cpaid+11.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9bf6…50e2backed Yes63c100$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$372100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+46%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7c09…dfb9backed No13c100$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4c4e…297bbacked No32c100$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32425%1 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.12per pick37cpaid-32.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x897c…7746backed Yes67c99.65$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.881100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+49.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe086…0450backed No38c95$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.1425%1 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.18per pick43cpaid-66.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9f12…2640backed Yes76c92.15$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.15450%2 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-34.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa163…de8dbacked Yes75c90.18$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.651163.6%7 W · 4 L+1.6wins+0.14per pick49cpaid+15.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x60a8…7d37backed No23c87.86$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20425%1 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.18per pick43cpaid-67.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0300…bd87backed No18c83.33$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked No30c82.71$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.61425%1 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.29per pick54cpaid-63.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe1a9…339ebacked No14c81.4$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.7720%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0f99…6734backed Yes65c80$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$282100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.29per pick72cpaid+41%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc147…5499backed Yes63c79.46$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.461100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+58.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x793b…80a8backed Yes65c76.92$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.92475%3 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.16per pick59cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xac28…6f58backed Yes62c68.55$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.871100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+60.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xae91…0f69backed Yes68c67.83$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.781100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+47.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No33c65.08$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.58560%3 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.12per pick48cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x96c5…728bbacked Yes78c50$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-18.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7b5c…4177backed Yes76c50$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$121100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4916…f56fbacked No36c49.48$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.861136.4%4 W · 7 L-1.4wins-0.12per pick49cpaid-32.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xec52…59e8backed Yes71c44.61$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.78666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.14per pick53cpaid+30.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed No31c41.81$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.95211.5%6 W · 46 L-11.8wins-0.23per pick34cpaid-71.1%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x374e…a732backed Yes72c41.77$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.771100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+39.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9422…f273backed No49c40.81$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.991844.4%8 W · 10 L-1.5wins-0.08per pick53cpaid-16.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x10ff…875ebacked Yes75c40$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2d95…c1f4backed Yes75c38.05$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.392100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+39.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8b8b…2512backed No29c38$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.02425%1 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.19per pick44cpaid-67.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf528…7e5bbacked Yes74c35.57$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.133183.9%26 W · 5 L+2.9wins+0.09per pick75cpaid+11.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x93ca…4472backed Yes72c34.59$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.591100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+38.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x582a…7bb2backed Yes61c34.46$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.463100%3 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+51.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xad00…83babacked Yes76c32.74$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.741100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+30.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5da6…370dbacked Yes63c31.56$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.56250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.11per pick39cpaid-21.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4a46…dbb4backed Yes72c27.78$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.781100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+38.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8a52…d74cbacked Yes74c27.2$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.21100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+36%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in China Taiwan and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.