China Taiwan · resolved market
Will Z.ai have the best Chinese AI model at the end of June 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7cdb14e1f9011773a9519ba822df6aef0f69964d844cf8cd1a70df632a8b1208
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- China Taiwanevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $51,210
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $35,399
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $51,210 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 80 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in China Taiwan is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in China Taiwan | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x07d4…8991backed Yes | 0c | 5,191$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.52 | 47 | 4.3%2 W · 45 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | +286.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd12f…e85abacked Yes | 6c | 2,479$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.23 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2296…2331backed Yes | 14c | 2,115$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b71…917cbacked Yes | 8c | 1,469$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e49…6257backed Yes | 7c | 1,304$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6845…c125backed Yes | 5c | 1,000$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.96 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 3c | 904.97$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.45 | 37 | 0%0 W · 37 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7fe…24e5backed Yes | 17c | 876.83$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.96 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -77.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fac…ee47backed Yes | 6c | 868.36$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c4e…297bbacked Yes | 31c | 811.13$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.24 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8de…2098backed Yes | 12c | 781.14$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8d…3b13backed Yes | 19c | 749.9$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x636d…6a8fbacked Yes | 20c | 741.46$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9272…0a19backed Yes | 9c | 668.58$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7365…64dabacked Yes | 11c | 648.98$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.57 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +4.4wins | +0.19per pick | 33cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x95b8…b472backed Yes | 16c | 630.4$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 6c | 568.21$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.22 | 127 | 7.9%10 W · 117 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -38%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 79c | 560.1$445 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.94 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -27%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x048a…9be4backed Yes | 29c | 550$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.3 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa788…fcafbacked Yes | 6c | 534$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 4c | 503.52$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.97 | 31 | 0%0 W · 31 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fb7…c702backed Yes | 6c | 495.9$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 10c | 492.69$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.88 | 56 | 8.9%5 W · 51 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 4c | 451.21$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.24 | 56 | 3.6%2 W · 54 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a22…2851backed Yes | 4c | 439.22$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.17 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x564f…7026backed Yes | 8c | 390.55$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.64 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -73.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2350…0b3abacked Yes | 27c | 369.79$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.9 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ab3…b750backed Yes | 3c | 361.55$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 8c | 357.19$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.01 | 19 | 0%0 W · 19 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1162…15f3backed Yes | 15c | 335.4$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5da6…370dbacked Yes | 14c | 332.42$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab1d…96adbacked Yes | 6c | 329.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.41 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf524…8178backed Yes | 7c | 329.4$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.73 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 14cpaid | +54.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5145…9af5backed Yes | 6c | 324.16$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9416…5a15backed Yes | 14c | 319.22$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes | 8c | 312.21$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.06 | 17 | 0%0 W · 17 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35e3…0df5backed Yes | 4c | 306.69$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe2d…a830backed No | 69c | 288.17$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.17 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8575…87febacked No | 71c | 283$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.87 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8b2…8fcebacked Yes | 7c | 278.54$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xafa8…9379backed Yes | 7c | 270.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x511f…cbe1backed No | 77c | 252.98$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.49 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x130d…3205backed Yes | 7c | 233.33$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a62…3df0backed Yes | 36c | 233.25$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe347…b438backed No | 77c | 207.85$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.42 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f0…8646backed Yes | 28c | 202.5$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a6…644bbacked Yes | 8c | 200$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a55…3923backed Yes | 5c | 200$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3b…9f3abacked Yes | 8c | 196.22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.33 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58c0…1c8ebacked Yes | 36c | 190.02$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.28 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -57.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa42…023ebacked Yes | 17c | 176.47$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 38c | 175.85$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.66 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | -4.4wins | -0.13per pick | 41cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x22b9…3d12backed Yes | 14c | 145.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21d5…6f93backed Yes | 15c | 135.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.09 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ace…f3dabacked Yes | 10c | 130.6$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed Yes | 34c | 130$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.9 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 70c | 125$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…27c9backed Yes | 18c | 119.38$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.2 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb25e…976cbacked Yes | 30c | 112.53$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.25 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffb5…7d34backed Yes | 9c | 111$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4916…f56fbacked Yes | 12c | 96.25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.43 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbcd3…1a5abacked Yes | 33c | 91$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.81 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 37c | 77.89$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.46 | 27 | 18.5%5 W · 22 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x793b…80a8backed Yes | 14c | 76.12$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.54 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18dc…5e90backed Yes | 41c | 75.76$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.03 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8673…4025backed Yes | 14c | 75.17$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -61.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc37…cc37backed Yes | 28c | 75$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10e8…e98fbacked Yes | 25c | 70.79$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.9 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa54f…2c92backed Yes | 42c | 70.64$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 51cpaid | -52.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 28c | 60.41$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.79 | 69 | 33.3%23 W · 46 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x758b…0a1cbacked Yes | 35c | 60$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…aaf7backed No | 72c | 54.95$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.63 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 67c | 50.27$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.34 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +3.1wins | +0.16per pick | 36cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb886…3024backed No | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x126e…c360backed Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7843…fd3cbacked Yes | 25c | 44.83$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.21 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 79c | 43$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.16 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a5f…b8d9backed Yes | 31c | 41.94$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c47…37e8backed No | 69c | 34.02$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.55 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x582a…7bb2backed No | 78c | 24.47$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.49 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +51.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in China Taiwan and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Z.ai have the best Chinese AI model at the end of June 2026?this page
- Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of June 2026?Yes won
- Will Baidu have the best Chinese AI model at the end of June 2026?No won
- Will ByteDance have the best Chinese AI model at the end of June 2026?No won
- Will DeepSeek have the best Chinese AI model at the end of June 2026?No won
- Will Moonshot have the best Chinese AI model at the end of June 2026?No won
- Will Tencent have the best Chinese AI model at the end of June 2026?No won
- Will Xiaomi have the best Chinese AI model at the end of June 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.