TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

World Politics · resolved market

Will Hakainde Hichilema win the 2026 Zambian presidential elections?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$122,664
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$137,743

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $122,664 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 130 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in World Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xb4d1…4c60backed No11c13,282$1,486 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,485.62714.8%4 W · 23 L-2.0wins-0.07per pick22cpaid-38.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No11c4,165$439 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$439.2334354.8%188 W · 155 L-1.5wins0.00per pick55cpaid-12%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7e59…7b8bbacked No5c2,533$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.49128.3%1 W · 11 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick13cpaid-87.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x511f…cbe1backed No10c2,438$254 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$253.910646.2%49 W · 57 L0.0wins0.00per pick46cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa328…4977backed No18c2,086$385 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$385.3813243.9%58 W · 74 L-2.8wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-15.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No10c1,981$191 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$190.9523551.9%122 W · 113 L-0.5wins0.00per pick52cpaid-12.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No15c1,591$234 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$233.9852850.8%268 W · 260 L+20.9wins+0.04per pick47cpaid-11.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb1ca…1705backed No11c1,571$173 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$172.857129.6%21 W · 50 L-4.1wins-0.06per pick35cpaid-48.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2106…4deabacked No14c1,550$218 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$218.014431.8%14 W · 30 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick29cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8373…f0bcbacked No11c1,452$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155.091250%6 W · 6 L+0.9wins+0.07per pick43cpaid-1.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8958…656dbacked No12c1,443$176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$176.061770.6%12 W · 5 L+2.0wins+0.12per pick59cpaid+8.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5004…9999backed No11c1,251$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.57333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.09per pick25cpaid-12.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x45ac…d2bbbacked No14c1,229$172 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$172.0110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x815a…af37backed No12c1,228$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.3760%0 W · 6 L-2.0wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1fc9…ace5backed No4c1,145$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.24766.5%31 W · 445 L-8.9wins-0.02per pick8cpaid-19.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked No16c1,045$163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$162.7946330.2%140 W · 323 L-20.4wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-19%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x61bb…12eebacked No20c1,004$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4f1d…8de2backed No16c985.31$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$156.0115558.7%91 W · 64 L+0.8wins0.00per pick58cpaid-8.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x090a…0fa6backed No10c973.88$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.542755.6%15 W · 12 L+2.0wins+0.08per pick48cpaid-1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3dd2…9ab1backed No10c950$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$952642.3%11 W · 15 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-11.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1f9e…4f1abacked Yes55c915.2$503 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$412.369850%49 W · 49 L+16.1wins+0.16per pick34cpaid+40.4%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0x3872…bb1dbacked No12c908.7$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.0450%0 W · 5 L-1.7wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xc3cd…816cbacked No8c821.18$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.8818628.5%53 W · 133 L+3.9wins+0.02per pick26cpaid-17.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0d42…f124backed No6c753.45$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.27618.4%14 W · 62 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick20cpaid-49.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd717…3b85backed No8c749.66$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.6516254.3%88 W · 74 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9eae…98a5backed No17c699.97$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.993542.9%15 W · 20 L-2.0wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-16.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x168f…9e00backed No23c658.03$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148.7910634.9%37 W · 69 L-3.1wins-0.03per pick38cpaid-8.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc3fc…484abacked No15c570$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.764926.5%13 W · 36 L-4.3wins-0.09per pick35cpaid-43.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf83e…4663backed No10c569.69$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.13369.7%23 W · 10 L+4.9wins+0.15per pick55cpaid+22.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x4e72…ffb9backed No9c550.75$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.1916850.6%85 W · 83 L+0.3wins0.00per pick50cpaid-11.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No25c525$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.3936055.3%199 W · 161 L0.0wins0.00per pick55cpaid-3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4504…e77dbacked No10c510$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8d58…b7bcbacked No20c500.59$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes73c444.84$326 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$119.1645723.2%106 W · 351 L-15.8wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-35%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7ab6…fa77backed No6c388.68$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.426883.6%25 W · 663 L-9.5wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-59.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeb68…e362backed No12c385.45$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.8215056.7%85 W · 65 L+5.0wins+0.03per pick53cpaid-6.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf6f6…0e74backed No17c379$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.131855.6%10 W · 8 L+1.3wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+2.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xac4a…bf1ebacked No6c366$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.6817330.1%52 W · 121 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick29cpaid-21.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe457…5ab3backed No15c350.87$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.110542.9%45 W · 60 L-4.7wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-20.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No15c344$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.8328558.9%168 W · 117 L+14.0wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+0.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x671a…2f1ebacked No12c335.13$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.554654.3%25 W · 21 L+2.7wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+8.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed No16c332.42$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.922355.6%124 W · 99 L+4.2wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x005e…6d8ebacked No9c331.21$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.8514445.8%66 W · 78 L-7.3wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-19.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x30fb…7db4backed No11c329.72$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.3727143.5%118 W · 153 L-21.4wins-0.08per pick51cpaid-24.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x4b10…a159backed No14c325$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb2e4…b7f1backed No12c324.57$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.7214553.8%78 W · 67 L+6.4wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+1.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3338…1f1dbacked No10c321.7$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.1720%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1f85…7b02backed No9c321.7$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.0116852.4%88 W · 80 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-14.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x86a6…1ac6backed Yes53c317.15$168 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$149.064753.2%25 W · 22 L+8.9wins+0.19per pick34cpaid+50.1%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0x6ab0…06fdbacked No18c316.58$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.98333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.14per pick47cpaid-56.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked No14c288.93$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.9124637.4%92 W · 154 L-4.3wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-30.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xca1f…d282backed No8c288.56$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.429756.7%55 W · 42 L-3.1wins-0.03per pick60cpaid-10.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8a2f…b23ebacked Yes72c278.49$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.49540%2 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick38cpaid+40.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No12c276$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.0439952.4%209 W · 190 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-13.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe40a…e4a2backed No12c273.7$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.098655.8%48 W · 38 L+0.3wins0.00per pick55cpaid-9.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x16c7…22cdbacked No13c273.26$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.8416450.6%83 W · 81 L+0.8wins0.00per pick50cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7e80…631bbacked No36c267.03$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.6127438.3%105 W · 169 L-32.3wins-0.12per pick50cpaid-35.3%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xb11d…a6c5backed No13c238.46$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.19per pick31cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa815…9cbebacked No10c226.98$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.251676.6%11 W · 156 L-0.2wins0.00per pick7cpaid-27.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No12c210.67$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.9231152.4%163 W · 148 L-12.4wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-14.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf864…7fb5backed No11c210.67$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.1710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3188…9e6cbacked No5c208.03$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8444…1cf9backed No46c200$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$918142%34 W · 47 L-0.3wins0.00per pick42cpaid+9.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4a2b…af20backed No8c200$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$164032.5%13 W · 27 L+2.4wins+0.06per pick26cpaid+7.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe8fc…0d3bbacked No20c200$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$405952.5%31 W · 28 L-2.8wins-0.05per pick57cpaid-7.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4d86…1cb2backed No5c200$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102416.7%4 W · 20 L+1.8wins+0.07per pick9cpaid+19.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc03f…249dbacked No9c200$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1810844.4%48 W · 60 L-0.2wins0.00per pick45cpaid-13.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf25b…82d0backed No7c200$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.54555.5%3 W · 52 L-3.5wins-0.06per pick12cpaid-92.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x714f…66d5backed No19c200$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3811020.9%23 W · 87 L-6.3wins-0.06per pick27cpaid-32.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2213…492cbacked No10c200$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.131353.8%7 W · 6 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick51cpaid-14.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3653…ef74backed No11c193.37$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.3814753.7%79 W · 68 L+2.9wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2d48…678cbacked No25c184.8$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.9714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.6wins-0.23per pick37cpaid-81.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xfe2d…da35backed No10c182.81$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.923467.6%23 W · 11 L+2.9wins+0.09per pick59cpaid+16.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xad99…dbabbacked No18c180.94$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.571250%6 W · 6 L+1.0wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+0.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1abc…45e7backed No8c179.25$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.9314954.4%81 W · 68 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-9.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbd14…76b4backed No14c171.87$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.8814637%54 W · 92 L-0.3wins0.00per pick37cpaid-15%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9b12…c2d5backed No8c169.35$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.0416051.9%83 W · 77 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-9.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf616…656dbacked No25c168.88$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.3710%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2d6c…e3f5backed No12c168.39$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.212445.8%11 W · 13 L-1.2wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-19.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7ac8…77cdbacked No25c147.38$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.8930233.8%102 W · 200 L+19.2wins+0.06per pick27cpaid+27.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5edc…bbadbacked No9c137.51$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.398854.5%48 W · 40 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-4.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8aab…1323backed No20c128$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.6850%4 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+0.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe8c4…395dbacked No12c121$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.523842.1%16 W · 22 L-4.5wins-0.12per pick54cpaid-25.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No36c118$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.771,31843.9%579 W · 739 L-26.8wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-13%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No17c107.91$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.8539414%55 W · 339 L-71.9wins-0.18per pick32cpaid-73.1%equal weight31-0.17 edge/pick
0xead3…b125backed No45c104.44$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.18per pick65cpaid+21.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3797…8be6backed No20c100$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.590%0 W · 9 L-1.9wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe1a9…339ebacked No20c100$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.52425%6 W · 18 L0.0wins0.00per pick25cpaid+4.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf0e0…016abacked No14c100$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141747.1%8 W · 9 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-28.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9b05…cc22backed No14c100$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x74aa…2c3fbacked No14c100$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141729.4%5 W · 12 L-2.4wins-0.14per pick44cpaid-52.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xff44…fa58backed No15c100$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2b96…a6d5backed No44c91.1$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2d91…f592backed No25c90$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.432544%11 W · 14 L-1.4wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-22%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed No20c89.15$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.1799017.2%170 W · 820 L-148.8wins-0.15per pick32cpaid-61.5%equal weight34-0.15 edge/pick
0x2b59…9db6backed No38c87$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.0615355.6%85 W · 68 L+3.7wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+6.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf9b5…1212backed No25c79.9$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.982458.3%14 W · 10 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick56cpaid-9.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf3ac…f23dbacked No29c79.08$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.937742.9%33 W · 44 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-14.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0041…967cbacked No21c76.91$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.341136.4%4 W · 7 L-1.9wins-0.18per pick54cpaid-49.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No37c75.5$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.735258%204 W · 148 L-4.6wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-7.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.