World Politics · resolved market
Will Brian Mundubile win the 2026 Zambian presidential elections?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x95a203b70b7f63e5356ada1ae3bcd414a7243ecb8433bef66d6dcbb7102bc807
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $93,002
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $89,416
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $93,002 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe348…94d9backed Yes | 11c | 9,874$1,084 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,084.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6139…6b7abacked Yes | 17c | 7,298$1,253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,253.41 | 56 | 48.2%27 W · 29 L | +5.1wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcd40…2687backed Yes | 17c | 5,987$1,002 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,002.43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 11c | 5,270$586 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$585.96 | 141 | 26.2%37 W · 104 L | -7.6wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e59…7b8bbacked Yes | 11c | 3,481$366 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$365.94 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -87.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1ca…1705backed Yes | 9c | 3,149$281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$281.44 | 71 | 29.6%21 W · 50 L | -4.1wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 14c | 2,582$349 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$349.01 | 457 | 23.2%106 W · 351 L | -15.8wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -35%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56f5…4995backed Yes | 13c | 2,418$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3338…1f1dbacked Yes | 13c | 1,885$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.32 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f95…3809backed Yes | 4c | 1,453$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb65…6746backed Yes | 11c | 1,351$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeefa…1e05backed Yes | 8c | 1,308$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 74c | 1,292$951 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$340.96 | 266 | 32.7%87 W · 179 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98ac…40d9backed No | 78c | 1,100$853 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f92…2c2dbacked Yes | 15c | 1,042$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.52 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | -2.7wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x38e5…95e7backed Yes | 8c | 755$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.89 | 150 | 26%39 W · 111 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 6c | 752.28$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.56 | 688 | 3.6%25 W · 663 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc7c…1d18backed Yes | 13c | 677.95$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.13 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 22cpaid | -83.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 69c | 653.43$453 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.06 | 285 | 58.9%168 W · 117 L | +14.0wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf92c…87f7backed Yes | 16c | 600$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +34.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb615…73cfbacked No | 74c | 499.9$369 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.29 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 52cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e06…9313backed Yes | 9c | 492.91$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed Yes | 16c | 464$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.16 | 146 | 37%54 W · 92 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x789c…bfb2backed Yes | 19c | 414.56$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x671a…2f1ebacked No | 79c | 406.71$323 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.06 | 46 | 54.3%25 W · 21 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed Yes | 8c | 346.34$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.05 | 170 | 37.6%64 W · 106 L | +5.2wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f9e…4f1abacked Yes | 12c | 320.77$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.65 | 98 | 50%49 W · 49 L | +16.1wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +40.4%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 15c | 310.43$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.86 | 323 | 54.2%175 W · 148 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 9c | 307.98$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.2 | 884 | 48.5%429 W · 455 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x764a…83d3backed Yes | 5c | 287.28$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.35 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -63.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b25…7a69backed Yes | 9c | 282.5$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc94a…df53backed Yes | 15c | 250.54$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x845d…f0a3backed Yes | 10c | 227.52$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9eae…98a5backed Yes | 13c | 225.43$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.07 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe4a4…852ebacked Yes | 13c | 212.47$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4aec…54c0backed Yes | 11c | 209.07$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 14c | 199.6$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.91 | 563 | 14.6%82 W · 481 L | -39.3wins | -0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x14ca…a846backed Yes | 9c | 187.74$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4141…22a9backed Yes | 11c | 176.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x91eb…5ba6backed Yes | 15c | 172.79$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x258b…525fbacked Yes | 13c | 160$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.2wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b4…3c5abacked Yes | 10c | 160$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x511f…0b0fbacked Yes | 26c | 157$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.97 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb48…cb91backed Yes | 9c | 155.27$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xabd8…9945backed Yes | 17c | 149.1$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd86b…167bbacked Yes | 11c | 142.09$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5582…6e4cbacked Yes | 9c | 135.86$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1075…19c1backed Yes | 16c | 123$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.35 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3de6…7daabacked Yes | 21c | 111.36$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa667…ceb3backed Yes | 12c | 110.22$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.23 | 108 | 45.4%49 W · 59 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x081a…66d0backed Yes | 13c | 109.25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.73 | 142 | 25.4%36 W · 106 L | -8.0wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9393…18cfbacked Yes | 11c | 104$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.44 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd19…3f54backed Yes | 11c | 102.19$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.24 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 22c | 102$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.89 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 70c | 101.5$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.02 | 352 | 58%204 W · 148 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x608f…9065backed Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -4.4wins | -0.25per pick | 47cpaid | -61.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 76c | 87$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.23 | 153 | 55.6%85 W · 68 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed Yes | 17c | 80$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 113 | 44.2%50 W · 63 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x736f…deaabacked Yes | 26c | 78.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 42cpaid | -36%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes | 30c | 66.64$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 371 | 17.8%66 W · 305 L | -18.9wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3dac…423abacked Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3797…8be6backed Yes | 18c | 62$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.44 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7510…6cb0backed No | 80c | 60$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.2 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 68cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c60…9536backed Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5566…7c29backed No | 40c | 39$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.4 | 53 | 45.3%24 W · 29 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…443bbacked Yes | 39c | 35.38$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 77c | 34$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 150 | 76%114 W · 36 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 220 | 29.5%65 W · 155 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x369c…eab1backed No | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.63 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d91…f592backed No | 70c | 19$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.7 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -22%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe347…b438backed No | 74c | 16.82$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.38 | 92 | 54.3%50 W · 42 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Brian Mundubile win the 2026 Zambian presidential elections?this page
- Will Fred M'membe win the 2026 Zambian presidential elections?No won
- Will Hakainde Hichilema win the 2026 Zambian presidential elections?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.