TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

AI · resolved market

Will Tesla deliver 475000 or more vehicles in Q2 2026

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$237,814
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$270,591

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $237,814 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 168 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in AI
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6a51…006ebacked Yes29c44,431$12,982 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31,4491040%4 W · 6 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick34cpaid-19.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x05f6…25a1backed No51c43,527$22,208 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22,208.3750%0 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9c26…eb28backed Yes55c19,389$10,697 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,691.421100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+81.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5085…22c7backed Yes27c14,003$3,743 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,260.1560%3 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.13per pick47cpaid+35.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4dfa…b490backed Yes30c8,803$2,658 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,144.75540%2 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick40cpaid+7.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x62f6…6300backed Yes40c7,358$2,975 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,382.46837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.10per pick47cpaid-31%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xac4a…bf1ebacked No59c5,995$3,559 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,558.9219818.7%37 W · 161 L-8.1wins-0.04per pick23cpaid-41.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb8e4…2daebacked No43c5,910$2,525 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,524.931060%6 W · 4 L+2.0wins+0.20per pick40cpaid+39.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked No30c5,703$1,696 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,695.7717824.2%43 W · 135 L-12.4wins-0.07per pick31cpaid-56%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xdaef…54e9backed No51c5,435$2,768 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,768.04616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.15per pick32cpaid-76.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x88ee…c234backed No68c5,355$3,618 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,617.88119.1%1 W · 10 L-3.0wins-0.27per pick37cpaid-80.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x7bc1…8db4backed Yes49c4,790$2,357 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,433.32911.1%1 W · 8 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick17cpaid-77.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x912b…4c57backed Yes66c4,128$2,714 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,413.371100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+52.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xad12…b115backed No79c4,110$3,249 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,248.5710%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.79per pick79cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb783…1a78backed Yes66c3,853$2,539 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,314.09250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.22per pick72cpaid-24.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x03f7…c0ccbacked No55c3,241$1,785 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,785.48728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.07per pick21cpaid+10.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x468a…3b4bbacked Yes59c3,213$1,899 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,314.322100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+47.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf61f…3b3dbacked Yes24c3,108$737 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,370.85450%2 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.14per pick36cpaid+58.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x124e…a8a9backed No72c3,100$2,223 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,222.82944.8%13 W · 16 L-0.1wins0.00per pick45cpaid+14.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6a01…7c0abacked No47c3,000$1,413 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,413.5520%1 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-74.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4a2b…af20backed No42c3,000$1,266 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,265.511425.4%29 W · 85 L+0.4wins0.00per pick25cpaid-4.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3bf9…2ebfbacked Yes37c2,903$1,081 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,822.11366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick61cpaid+34.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x45b2…cbc1backed No7c2,815$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.875510.9%6 W · 49 L-2.3wins-0.04per pick15cpaid-33.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4cf1…0c3cbacked Yes40c2,785$1,125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,659.781100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.60per pick40cpaid+147.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No15c2,729$399 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$399.395440.7%22 W · 32 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-29.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf5d6…b213backed No46c2,615$1,209 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,208.83616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.10per pick27cpaid-57.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2282…73e8backed No68c2,576$1,758 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,758.131428.6%4 W · 10 L-2.2wins-0.15per pick44cpaid-40.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x0a2c…7f01backed Yes31c2,443$751 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,691.46366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.29per pick38cpaid+74.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd9cc…303abacked Yes70c2,337$1,634 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$703.121100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+43%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No51c2,117$1,079 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,079.3219432%62 W · 132 L0.0wins0.00per pick32cpaid-40.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x511f…cbe1backed No68c2,036$1,375 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,374.517943%34 W · 45 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-24.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcd17…fd3ebacked Yes65c1,996$1,291 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$705.031100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+54.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf27a…7b4dbacked No77c1,700$1,310 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,309.88742.9%3 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.16per pick59cpaid-36.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x82ed…25a4backed No4c1,600$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.3933.3%3 W · 6 L+2.1wins+0.23per pick10cpaid+126.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xeda0…7dffbacked No41c1,438$586 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$585.914619.6%9 W · 37 L-3.3wins-0.07per pick27cpaid-64.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x03aa…63fbbacked Yes16c1,214$190 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,024.48366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.35per pick31cpaid+204.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No61c1,186$727 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$727.188547.1%40 W · 45 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-30.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb5ec…9782backed No53c1,184$629 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$628.64633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.3wins-0.21per pick54cpaid-49.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xcfff…673dbacked No55c1,149$630 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$629.877538.7%29 W · 46 L-4.9wins-0.07per pick45cpaid-38.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2b59…9db6backed No9c1,113$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.226656.1%37 W · 29 L+2.4wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+3.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5136…0e4fbacked No45c1,080$483 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$483.424055%22 W · 18 L+1.6wins+0.04per pick51cpaid-10.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfb82…0318backed Yes53c1,041$550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$490.52065%13 W · 7 L+4.0wins+0.20per pick45cpaid+40.3%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x4624…0a84backed No55c1,035$567 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$567.4310%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc518…2594backed No45c932.54$422 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$422.176439.1%25 W · 39 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-28.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xecfa…3c6fbacked No39c900$355 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$354.71650%8 W · 8 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No50c885$445 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$445.388741.4%36 W · 51 L-3.9wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-28.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x04dc…2387backed No80c846.99$677 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$677.2312839.8%51 W · 77 L+4.3wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-16.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes38c843.13$324 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$519.3610126.7%27 W · 74 L+0.2wins0.00per pick27cpaid-37.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x671a…2f1ebacked No34c772$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$260.343946.2%18 W · 21 L-1.8wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-22.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2ba9…8784backed Yes60c752.15$449 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$303.21100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+67.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3510…2492backed No55c720.92$397 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$396.5110%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6aad…9cb9backed Yes56c713.01$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$313.01683.3%5 W · 1 L+3.3wins+0.56per pick28cpaid+338.6%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked Yes50c648.75$327 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$322.0415047.3%71 W · 79 L+6.5wins+0.04per pick43cpaid-13.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd8d5…8935backed No41c600$244 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$244.24942.9%21 W · 28 L-2.8wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-23.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes27c581.99$156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$426.421,3636.8%93 W · 1,270 L-20.2wins-0.01per pick8cpaid-59.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf08c…91e9backed Yes50c544.35$271 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$273.634839.6%19 W · 29 L+1.5wins+0.03per pick36cpaid+33.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x15df…7b17backed Yes39c541.25$210 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$331.251100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.61per pick39cpaid+157.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7d1b…7676backed No66c521.36$345 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$345.351643.8%7 W · 9 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-16.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8b8b…2512backed Yes21c488.21$103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$385.362343.5%10 W · 13 L+1.4wins+0.06per pick37cpaid-11.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No67c475.98$317 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$317.168942.7%38 W · 51 L-3.1wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-28.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4c29…7570backed No40c475.21$191 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$191.03862.5%5 W · 3 L+2.1wins+0.26per pick36cpaid+95.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb133…94fbbacked Yes16c443.18$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$370.24475%3 W · 1 L+1.3wins+0.33per pick42cpaid+141%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9a3f…914abacked Yes58c430$248 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$181.995547.3%26 W · 29 L+4.0wins+0.07per pick40cpaid+20.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7b0f…179abacked No42c422.79$177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$177.4119.1%1 W · 10 L-1.8wins-0.17per pick26cpaid-88.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc602…7fc1backed Yes18c417.69$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$342.2132228.9%93 W · 229 L-16.0wins-0.05per pick34cpaid-38.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7dce…4682backed Yes11c406.41$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$360.113625%9 W · 27 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-17.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4615…5ccbbacked No74c386.43$286 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$286.2230%0 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No74c379.9$279 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$279.4247938%182 W · 297 L-11.3wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-22.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No39c369.19$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.9111124.3%27 W · 84 L-16.1wins-0.15per pick39cpaid-54.5%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0xd0bf…9f9fbacked No35c349$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.42190%0 W · 19 L-1.5wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xcd91…32b8backed No79c338.23$268 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$267.784736.2%17 W · 30 L-3.7wins-0.08per pick44cpaid-37%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf83e…4663backed No36c312.12$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.071346.2%6 W · 7 L+1.2wins+0.09per pick37cpaid-7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7f29…0760backed No34c300$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1022055%11 W · 9 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-11.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd555…e28abacked No39c300$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.54146.3%19 W · 22 L+3.4wins+0.08per pick38cpaid+6.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xfd75…d61dbacked No66c298.06$197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$196.7510%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.66per pick66cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdad7…005abacked Yes21c290$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$229.442025%5 W · 15 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-15.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4d52…f88abacked Yes61c282.06$172 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.212626.9%7 W · 19 L-2.4wins-0.09per pick36cpaid-21.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x789c…3b85backed No80c259.87$207 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$206.8610%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.80per pick80cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd296…084dbacked No76c247.52$188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$188.3210%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.76per pick76cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes10c239$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$215.416041.7%25 W · 35 L+3.7wins+0.06per pick36cpaid+10.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x92e5…efeebacked Yes63c222$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.142347.8%11 W · 12 L+0.1wins0.00per pick47cpaid-23.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4a1f…1a9fbacked Yes17c209.46$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$174.376923.2%16 W · 53 L+5.0wins+0.07per pick16cpaid-7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x91ff…8f40backed No66c208.53$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.44922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.4wins-0.15per pick38cpaid-69.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xfd8e…15d8backed No80c208.38$166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$165.710%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.80per pick80cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3c69…b1debacked No60c202.29$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.5910%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.60per pick60cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked No61c201.16$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.795848.3%28 W · 30 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-11.2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed No33c200$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.245738.9%178 W · 279 L-31.3wins-0.07per pick46cpaid-3.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x7b0f…8a6abacked Yes17c200$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1672100%2 W · 0 L+1.6wins+0.78per pick22cpaid+381.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x1520…0ddfbacked No79c174.5$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.0310%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.79per pick79cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcbb0…bd65backed No78c170.22$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.221723.5%4 W · 13 L-2.3wins-0.14per pick37cpaid-65.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x16c7…22cdbacked No80c169.96$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.752650%13 W · 13 L+1.8wins+0.07per pick43cpaid-3.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8803…e1afbacked Yes59c168.35$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.35683.3%5 W · 1 L+2.6wins+0.44per pick40cpaid+452.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes29c167.04$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.936726.9%18 W · 49 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-47.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2f26…0d8fbacked Yes15c167$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$142.192035%7 W · 13 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick33cpaid-19%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x039b…9b6cbacked No67c159$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.372025%5 W · 15 L-1.9wins-0.09per pick34cpaid-29.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9ecb…4c3abacked No61c157$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.231816.7%3 W · 15 L-2.2wins-0.12per pick29cpaid-58.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf6f6…0e74backed No47c145$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.48250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-24%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x93e2…92b9backed Yes14c133.99$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115.76922.2%2 W · 7 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick21cpaid+22%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x55bc…52d8backed No70c132.9$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.4820%0 W · 2 L-1.4wins-0.70per pick70cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No53c131$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.827448.6%36 W · 38 L+2.0wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-14.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.