AI · resolved market
Will Tesla deliver between 375000 and 400000 vehicles in Q2 2026
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x13150beedcc4b60c60580eec5f87bbb3092995cd893aadb709425e097af82df4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,611
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,673
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,611 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x05f6…25a1backed Yes | 5c | 4,922$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265.79 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x70ff…b65fbacked Yes | 14c | 4,913$669 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$669.1 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | +2.1wins | +0.10per pick | 14cpaid | +164.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf5d6…b213backed Yes | 19c | 2,070$394 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$394.42 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 27cpaid | -57.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd555…e28abacked Yes | 2c | 908.57$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.45 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | +3.4wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x03f7…c0ccbacked Yes | 8c | 822.18$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.54 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdaef…54e9backed Yes | 5c | 712.94$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.65 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -76.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04d4…be7cbacked Yes | 23c | 630$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.9 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01d6…0511backed No | 77c | 630$485 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.9 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.0wins | +0.33per pick | 50cpaid | +81.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9617…2f8ebacked Yes | 17c | 581.44$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -72.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x961a…73acbacked Yes | 20c | 545.89$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.31 | 46 | 41.3%19 W · 27 L | +3.6wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x490e…42f1backed Yes | 5c | 500$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 11c | 496.02$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.38 | 101 | 26.7%27 W · 74 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5533…51babacked Yes | 2c | 486.64$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.61 | 24 | 0%0 W · 24 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 17c | 404.63$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.06 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2296…4911backed Yes | 5c | 398.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdad7…005abacked Yes | 4c | 290$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.09 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed Yes | 11c | 282.63$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.68 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88ee…c234backed Yes | 6c | 206.43$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.18 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -3.0wins | -0.27per pick | 37cpaid | -80.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e2…d768backed No | 71c | 200$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29ef…dddabacked Yes | 10c | 199.61$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.97 | 101 | 44.6%45 W · 56 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x124e…a8a9backed Yes | 9c | 184.31$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.76 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 8c | 167.04$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.23 | 67 | 26.9%18 W · 49 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62f6…6300backed Yes | 27c | 133.15$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.31 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -31%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51f2…38efbacked Yes | 25c | 129.48$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.9 | 70 | 38.6%27 W · 43 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 80c | 105.62$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.41 | 66 | 56.1%37 W · 29 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes | 10c | 105.54$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.69 | 198 | 18.7%37 W · 161 L | -8.1wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1f…1a9fbacked Yes | 28c | 104.17$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.7 | 69 | 23.2%16 W · 53 L | +5.0wins | +0.07per pick | 16cpaid | -7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 279 | 2.5%7 W · 272 L | -7.0wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -69.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 304 | 2%6 W · 298 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -70.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x917d…d28dbacked Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 30c | 93.89$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.17 | 294 | 30.6%90 W · 204 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 16c | 81.87$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.97 | 574 | 26.8%154 W · 420 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 80c | 62$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.4 | 116 | 36.2%42 W · 74 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11f8…1c4ebacked No | 80c | 62$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.4 | 56 | 55.4%31 W · 25 L | +7.2wins | +0.13per pick | 42cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 78c | 60$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 71 | 43.7%31 W · 40 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf468…6757backed Yes | 23c | 57.36$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 80c | 55.92$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.23 | 74 | 48.6%36 W · 38 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9da7…8d0fbacked Yes | 22c | 52.09$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.46 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbde…3dc9backed Yes | 31c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.63 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0957…77e8backed No | 77c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 74c | 38.84$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.29 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -2.1wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -54.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x370e…5df3backed No | 71c | 36$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.44 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7bbb…ad2ebacked No | 80c | 29.1$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.82 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +36.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c15…9667backed No | 70c | 29$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.7 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 72c | 28.24$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.91 | 58 | 48.3%28 W · 30 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad62…2aa9backed No | 76c | 26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.24 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 64c | 23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.28 | 729 | 35.5%259 W · 470 L | -57.8wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd49b…bdf9backed No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -59.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb732…6900backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 70cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked No | 71c | 17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.93 | 60 | 41.7%25 W · 35 L | +3.7wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed No | 77c | 13.03$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.95 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.12per pick | 62cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Tesla deliver between 375000 and 400000 vehicles in Q2 2026this page
- Will Tesla deliver 475000 or more vehicles in Q2 2026Yes won
- Will Tesla deliver between 300000 and 325000 vehicles in Q2 2026No won
- Will Tesla deliver between 325000 and 350000 vehicles in Q2 2026No won
- Will Tesla deliver between 350000 and 375000 vehicles in Q2 2026No won
- Will Tesla deliver between 400000 and 425000 vehicles in Q2 2026No won
- Will Tesla deliver between 425000 and 450000 vehicles in Q2 2026No won
- Will Tesla deliver between 450000 and 475000 vehicles in Q2 2026No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.