TailMyPicks
Market

AI · resolved market

Will Tesla deliver between 400000 and 425000 vehicles in Q2 2026

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$59,123
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$57,697

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $59,123 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 99 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in AI
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x05f6…25a1backed Yes12c10,097$1,194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,194.3750%0 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x70ff…b65fbacked Yes9c5,077$456 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$456.162123.8%5 W · 16 L+2.1wins+0.10per pick14cpaid+164.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf5d6…b213backed Yes33c4,127$1,342 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,342.03616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.10per pick27cpaid-57.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No80c2,014$1,603 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$411.2519432%62 W · 132 L0.0wins0.00per pick32cpaid-40.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x511f…cbe1backed No50c1,765$881 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$884.167943%34 W · 45 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-24.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a51…006ebacked No66c1,523$1,012 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$511.561040%4 W · 6 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick34cpaid-19.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2282…73e8backed Yes38c1,510$577 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$576.581428.6%4 W · 10 L-2.2wins-0.15per pick44cpaid-40.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x62f6…6300backed Yes51c1,188$611 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$610.88837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.10per pick47cpaid-31%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x88ee…c234backed Yes44c1,175$515 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$514.64119.1%1 W · 10 L-3.0wins-0.27per pick37cpaid-80.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x2f63…6643backed Yes42c1,090$463 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$462.771258.3%7 W · 5 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick53cpaid-14%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0ed3…7ad4backed Yes8c1,078$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.51225%3 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick25cpaid-29.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1fc6…1fc1backed No80c1,010$807 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$203.177100%7 W · 0 L+2.5wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+57.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x9617…2f8ebacked Yes26c979.38$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250.4714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick20cpaid-72.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No77c958.36$739 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$219.128741.4%36 W · 51 L-3.9wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-28.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x03f7…c0ccbacked Yes15c951.16$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.91728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.07per pick21cpaid+10.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc518…2594backed No78c935.35$731 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$204.236439.1%25 W · 39 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-28.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No67c880$591 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2898942.7%38 W · 51 L-3.1wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-28.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc713…891fbacked Yes18c865$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155.71457.1%8 W · 6 L+0.9wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+17.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6ea7…2550backed Yes18c853$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153.541457.1%8 W · 6 L+1.3wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+8.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x725c…34e4backed Yes25c799.84$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$197.56520%1 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.09per pick29cpaid-69.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5136…0e4fbacked No74c780$576 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$203.634055%22 W · 18 L+1.6wins+0.04per pick51cpaid-10.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4d2d…f3a5backed No80c759.82$607 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$153.082100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+59.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2111…667fbacked No78c728$568 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$160.16650%3 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-19%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x33e2…e1babacked Yes22c728$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$160.161338.5%5 W · 8 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+25.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x124e…a8a9backed Yes42c628.96$263 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$262.753046.7%14 W · 16 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+15.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeda0…7dffbacked No75c592.17$442 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$149.794619.6%9 W · 37 L-3.3wins-0.07per pick27cpaid-64.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked No74c588.16$436 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$152.2117824.2%43 W · 135 L-12.4wins-0.07per pick31cpaid-56%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x7dce…4682backed Yes13c481.42$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.563625%9 W · 27 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-17.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4734…60b1backed Yes44c459.14$202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202.31464.3%9 W · 5 L+1.4wins+0.10per pick54cpaid+25.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes11c417.46$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.3910126.7%27 W · 74 L+0.2wins0.00per pick27cpaid-37.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5085…22c7backed No72c381.85$276 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.09560%3 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.13per pick47cpaid+35.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdaef…54e9backed Yes8c359.09$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.93616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.15per pick32cpaid-76.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcd91…32b8backed No54c340.73$184 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1574736.2%17 W · 30 L-3.7wins-0.08per pick44cpaid-37%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf5cc…3dc2backed Yes31c322.16$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10030%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes24c310.14$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.631,3636.8%93 W · 1,270 L-20.2wins-0.01per pick8cpaid-59.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x671a…2f1ebacked No74c308.78$229 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.123946.2%18 W · 21 L-1.8wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-22.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6568…978ebacked Yes24c300$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.3714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.11per pick25cpaid-62.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2107…8a8abacked Yes23c300$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.3812.5%1 W · 7 L-1.2wins-0.15per pick28cpaid-67.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x961a…73acbacked Yes15c300$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$454641.3%19 W · 27 L+3.6wins+0.08per pick34cpaid+13.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd555…e28abacked Yes7c297$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.64146.3%19 W · 22 L+3.4wins+0.08per pick38cpaid+6.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xdad7…005abacked Yes15c290$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.612025%5 W · 15 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-15.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9ecb…4c3abacked Yes9c271.95$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.891816.7%3 W · 15 L-2.2wins-0.12per pick29cpaid-58.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed No70c234.78$164 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.8189417.1%153 W · 741 L-145.2wins-0.16per pick33cpaid-61.4%equal weight32-0.16 edge/pick
0x9cb3…1367backed Yes11c198.65$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.159444.7%42 W · 52 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-20.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes18c167.04$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.426726.9%18 W · 49 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-47.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4191…569fbacked Yes47c153.24$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.41216.7%2 W · 10 L-4.1wins-0.34per pick51cpaid-71.9%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x039b…9b6cbacked Yes38c150$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$572025%5 W · 15 L-1.9wins-0.09per pick34cpaid-29.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x59c6…8332backed Yes13c149.62$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2040%0 W · 4 L-1.5wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2f9b…a68cbacked Yes23c145$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$334045%18 W · 22 L+4.1wins+0.10per pick35cpaid+29.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb146…c098backed Yes42c135.76$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.11728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick26cpaid-28.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x005e…6d8ebacked No53c135.29$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.051838.9%7 W · 11 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-38.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2296…4911backed Yes19c123.82$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.9640%0 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Yes42c121.11$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.479839.8%39 W · 59 L+4.1wins+0.04per pick36cpaid-4.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9e62…64a7backed Yes43c112.48$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.15742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.12per pick55cpaid-32.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc92d…6583backed Yes47c107.52$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4e72…ffb9backed No53c106.52$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.612552%13 W · 12 L+1.6wins+0.06per pick46cpaid-11.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd717…3b85backed Yes23c105.63$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.193253.1%17 W · 15 L+2.3wins+0.07per pick46cpaid-16.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9f2a…3706backed No76c100$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.64938.8%19 W · 30 L-4.4wins-0.09per pick48cpaid-39.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x29ef…dddabacked Yes14c100$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1410144.6%45 W · 56 L+3.1wins+0.03per pick42cpaid-0.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4dbc…0402backed Yes21c95.73$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4388…5050backed No63c95.56$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.364942.9%21 W · 28 L+2.7wins+0.06per pick37cpaid+17.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd0bf…9f9fbacked Yes15c92.32$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.94190%0 W · 19 L-1.5wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1abc…45e7backed Yes28c90.3$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.582133.3%7 W · 14 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-47.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x077c…8b1fbacked No77c88.28$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.5837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-29%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9a3f…914abacked No79c87.12$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.215547.3%26 W · 29 L+4.0wins+0.07per pick40cpaid+20.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes28c83.36$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.492842.9%12 W · 16 L+0.1wins0.00per pick42cpaid-21.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes22c81.99$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.9211124.3%27 W · 84 L-16.1wins-0.15per pick39cpaid-54.5%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0x9f72…22c7backed Yes28c80$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.3210%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd064…c4d1backed Yes17c78.54$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.67850%4 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-14%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes28c76.79$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.642650%13 W · 13 L+1.8wins+0.07per pick43cpaid-3.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked No56c76.73$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.585848.3%28 W · 30 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-11.2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xad99…dbabbacked Yes30c75.2$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.861618.8%3 W · 13 L-2.4wins-0.15per pick34cpaid-65.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x9474…5091backed Yes14c73.1$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.372977.7%23 W · 274 L-9.9wins-0.03per pick11cpaid-44.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No68c70.46$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.97448.6%36 W · 38 L+2.0wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-14.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xba19…bfc3backed Yes16c68.97$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-50.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd10d…8f16backed No63c62.45$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.29250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-20.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x007f…233abacked Yes59c60.87$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.7720%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe4ca…1383backed Yes18c57.02$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.5225122.7%57 W · 194 L-9.4wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-24.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x917d…d28dbacked Yes49c56.7$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.7820%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7635…76c5backed Yes24c46.72$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1130%0 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9da7…8d0fbacked Yes60c46$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.7420%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6ad8…dbebbacked No40c46$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.742552%13 W · 12 L+1.5wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+10.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4a1f…1a9fbacked Yes25c41.54$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.196923.2%16 W · 53 L+5.0wins+0.07per pick16cpaid-7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes49c40.16$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.4819818.7%37 W · 161 L-8.1wins-0.04per pick23cpaid-41.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0957…77e8backed No75c40$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.011546.7%7 W · 8 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick43cpaid-25.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf6f6…0e74backed No66c40$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.69250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-24%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xfc81…e072backed Yes65c39.62$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.7250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.21per pick71cpaid-35.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked No58c38.41$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.9615047.3%71 W · 79 L+6.5wins+0.04per pick43cpaid-13.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xaf05…33e2backed No73c37.41$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.941752.9%9 W · 8 L-2.1wins-0.12per pick65cpaid-20.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe474…2c56backed Yes37c33.3$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.3210%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7e80…631bbacked No73c30.55$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.2325632.8%84 W · 172 L-24.1wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-27.9%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xb6ec…c80cbacked Yes36c30$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.8610%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ebf…6961backed Yes46c25.91$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.9710%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1946…6367backed No58c25.75$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.9450%2 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.15per pick65cpaid-18.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4676…b720backed No62c25.47$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.562860.7%17 W · 11 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick63cpaid-8.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd49b…bdf9backed No76c20.01$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.812429.2%7 W · 17 L-1.6wins-0.07per pick36cpaid-59.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x87b3…1b0fbacked No67c19.97$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.551100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+48.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc07f…33f8backed No67c19.97$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.551100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+48.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x122c…fbedbacked No61c17.23$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.643116.1%5 W · 26 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick19cpaid-65%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.