AI · resolved market
Will Tesla deliver between 425000 and 450000 vehicles in Q2 2026
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3be2b05f91f41cea6c5bd803b4c456ca5339a38a8c2bb19f71d38ef44636b0da
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $51,448
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $46,560
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $51,448 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x70ff…b65fbacked Yes | 9c | 9,157$838 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$837.89 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | +2.1wins | +0.10per pick | 14cpaid | +164.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7dce…4682backed Yes | 14c | 2,212$314 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$314.13 | 36 | 25%9 W · 27 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05f6…25a1backed Yes | 10c | 2,086$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.84 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5d6…b213backed Yes | 11c | 2,008$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.07 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 27cpaid | -57.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9617…2f8ebacked Yes | 14c | 1,698$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -72.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88ee…c234backed Yes | 15c | 1,510$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.6 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -3.0wins | -0.27per pick | 37cpaid | -80.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0ed3…7ad4backed Yes | 10c | 1,440$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.98 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 52c | 1,390$722 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$668.44 | 178 | 24.2%43 W · 135 L | -12.4wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -56%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Yes | 10c | 1,264$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.62 | 46 | 19.6%9 W · 37 L | -3.3wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -64.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x03f7…c0ccbacked Yes | 9c | 1,264$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.78 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5351…c7edbacked Yes | 21c | 1,000$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 10c | 971.63$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.56 | 101 | 26.7%27 W · 74 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x124e…a8a9backed Yes | 15c | 752.84$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.61 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x98a3…93edbacked Yes | 13c | 751.29$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5085…22c7backed Yes | 23c | 661.41$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.3 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +35.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf61f…3b3dbacked Yes | 35c | 630.83$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.25 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +58.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes | 11c | 492.69$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.11 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 15c | 471.51$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.11 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5cc…3dc2backed Yes | 17c | 449.45$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.28 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x725c…34e4backed Yes | 15c | 435.63$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.39 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -69.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f5c…7a2dbacked Yes | 11c | 400$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +199.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 80c | 385$307 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.65 | 64 | 48.4%31 W · 33 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 8c | 353.61$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.22 | 304 | 2%6 W · 298 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -70.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes | 10c | 302$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.76 | 198 | 18.7%37 W · 161 L | -8.1wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x62f6…6300backed Yes | 20c | 300$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -31%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd555…e28abacked Yes | 6c | 300$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | +3.4wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdad7…005abacked Yes | 11c | 290$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.7 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ecb…4c3abacked Yes | 11c | 243$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.34 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -2.2wins | -0.12per pick | 29cpaid | -58.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x29ef…dddabacked Yes | 11c | 225.01$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.72 | 101 | 44.6%45 W · 56 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 11c | 222.37$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.46 | 322 | 28.9%93 W · 229 L | -16.0wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xba19…bfc3backed Yes | 14c | 219.84$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -50.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 69c | 204.7$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.67 | 74 | 48.6%36 W · 38 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad99…dbabbacked Yes | 12c | 195.25$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.43 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -2.4wins | -0.15per pick | 34cpaid | -65.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1075…19c1backed Yes | 9c | 180$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 48 | 16.7%8 W · 40 L | -3.9wins | -0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 11c | 167.04$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.22 | 67 | 26.9%18 W · 49 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb59…0a22backed Yes | 13c | 163.84$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.97 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Yes | 9c | 158.85$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 251 | 22.7%57 W · 194 L | -9.4wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked Yes | 12c | 150$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 50 | 38%19 W · 31 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c4f…7bd5backed Yes | 28c | 142.06$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91ff…8f40backed Yes | 16c | 123.54$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.15per pick | 38cpaid | -69.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x118f…a70bbacked Yes | 28c | 108.8$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 11c | 100.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.11 | 729 | 35.5%259 W · 470 L | -57.8wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa6fb…58e2backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…2387backed Yes | 20c | 90.05$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.68 | 128 | 39.8%51 W · 77 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 12c | 90$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 191 | 20.9%40 W · 151 L | -20.8wins | -0.11per pick | 32cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2358…eb50backed Yes | 15c | 85.59$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafba…d271backed Yes | 18c | 81.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +2.2wins | +0.37per pick | 30cpaid | +93.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4916…f56fbacked Yes | 23c | 65.11$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.93 | 173 | 50.3%87 W · 86 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd064…c4d1backed Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -14%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 18c | 62.28$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.13 | 893 | 17.1%153 W · 740 L | -144.9wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 79c | 60$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 58 | 48.3%28 W · 30 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 76c | 57.94$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.95 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 63c | 44.55$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.48 | 154 | 52.6%81 W · 73 L | +9.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 69c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.4 | 58 | 48.3%28 W · 30 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 80c | 12.54$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.51 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | -2.7wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Tesla deliver between 425000 and 450000 vehicles in Q2 2026this page
- Will Tesla deliver 475000 or more vehicles in Q2 2026Yes won
- Will Tesla deliver between 300000 and 325000 vehicles in Q2 2026No won
- Will Tesla deliver between 325000 and 350000 vehicles in Q2 2026No won
- Will Tesla deliver between 350000 and 375000 vehicles in Q2 2026No won
- Will Tesla deliver between 375000 and 400000 vehicles in Q2 2026No won
- Will Tesla deliver between 400000 and 425000 vehicles in Q2 2026No won
- Will Tesla deliver between 450000 and 475000 vehicles in Q2 2026No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.