TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

AI · resolved market

Will Tesla deliver between 450000 and 475000 vehicles in Q2 2026

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$51,757
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$44,986

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $51,757 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 93 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in AI
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x70ff…b65fbacked Yes9c6,191$533 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$532.672123.8%5 W · 16 L+2.1wins+0.10per pick14cpaid+164.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6a51…006ebacked Yes48c2,761$1,320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,320.221040%4 W · 6 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick34cpaid-19.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes7c2,049$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.5717824.2%43 W · 135 L-12.4wins-0.07per pick31cpaid-56%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x7dce…4682backed Yes18c1,795$323 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$322.543625%9 W · 27 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-17.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5085…22c7backed Yes55c1,738$952 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$951.81560%3 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.13per pick47cpaid+35.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf61f…3b3dbacked Yes38c1,133$428 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$427.82450%2 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.14per pick36cpaid+58.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x961a…73acbacked Yes14c1,110$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155.594641.3%19 W · 27 L+3.6wins+0.08per pick34cpaid+13.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No68c981.8$665 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$316.58547.1%40 W · 45 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-30.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd555…e28abacked Yes19c953.29$182 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$181.754146.3%19 W · 22 L+3.4wins+0.08per pick38cpaid+6.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0a2c…7f01backed Yes33c909.6$298 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$298.09366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.29per pick38cpaid+74.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x04dc…2387backed No58c902.11$523 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$379.1212839.8%51 W · 77 L+4.3wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-16.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9617…2f8ebacked Yes15c899.94$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.09714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick20cpaid-72.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes24c875.86$213 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$213.4410126.7%27 W · 74 L+0.2wins0.00per pick27cpaid-37.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd5b9…e44ebacked No55c872.78$480 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$392.7814250%71 W · 71 L+10.5wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+70.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x88ee…c234backed Yes15c763.33$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.5119.1%1 W · 10 L-3.0wins-0.27per pick37cpaid-80.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xf5d6…b213backed Yes13c671.76$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.33616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.10per pick27cpaid-57.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes14c605.64$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.121,3636.8%93 W · 1,270 L-20.2wins-0.01per pick8cpaid-59.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x98a3…93edbacked Yes16c585.28$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.2620%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb133…94fbbacked Yes28c574.93$159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159475%3 W · 1 L+1.3wins+0.33per pick42cpaid+141%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x124e…a8a9backed Yes11c559.36$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.892944.8%13 W · 16 L-0.1wins0.00per pick45cpaid+14.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x54d1…13f4backed No55c540.4$299 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$241.831060%6 W · 4 L+1.7wins+0.17per pick43cpaid+56.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes10c500.89$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.882544%11 W · 14 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick40cpaid-31.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x03f7…c0ccbacked Yes8c499.99$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.5728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.07per pick21cpaid+10.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9e62…64a7backed Yes11c473.37$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.12per pick55cpaid-32.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x725c…34e4backed Yes34c405.7$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.81520%1 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.09per pick29cpaid-69.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x91ff…8f40backed Yes27c399.99$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.18922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.4wins-0.15per pick38cpaid-69.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No69c360.7$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.078942.7%38 W · 51 L-3.1wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-28.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked No30c337.95$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$236.2329430.6%90 W · 204 L-7.1wins-0.02per pick33cpaid-6.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed No66c310.13$203 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.6389317.1%153 W · 740 L-144.9wins-0.16per pick33cpaid-61.3%equal weight32-0.16 edge/pick
0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes35c300$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.512533.6%42 W · 83 L-12.2wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-31.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes20c296.99$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.866041.7%25 W · 35 L+3.7wins+0.06per pick36cpaid+10.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xdad7…005abacked Yes41c290$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.952025%5 W · 15 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-15.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0ed3…7ad4backed Yes36c280.74$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001225%3 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick25cpaid-29.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3d66…7851backed No63c266.16$169 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.57333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.14per pick47cpaid-47.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7e80…631bbacked Yes20c255.29$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.2225632.8%84 W · 172 L-24.1wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-27.9%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x03aa…63fbbacked Yes42c251.42$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.35per pick31cpaid+204.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd0bf…9f9fbacked Yes7c237.33$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.5190%0 W · 19 L-1.5wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No52c234.77$122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.567448.6%36 W · 38 L+2.0wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-14.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x62f6…6300backed No68c227.46$154 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.37837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.10per pick47cpaid-31%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2f26…0d8fbacked Yes14c217$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.432035%7 W · 13 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick33cpaid-19%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes5c200$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.53042%6 W · 298 L-9.4wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-70.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xaa81…aaf7backed Yes13c171.46$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.4822019.5%43 W · 177 L-11.7wins-0.05per pick25cpaid-46.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes22c167.03$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.956726.9%18 W · 49 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-47.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd9b9…04f6backed Yes18c153.21$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.4120%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x23cb…0357backed No67c147.88$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.313762.2%23 W · 14 L0.0wins0.00per pick62cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5203…b975backed Yes34c147.05$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x59c6…8332backed Yes39c126.95$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5040%0 W · 4 L-1.5wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x118f…a70bbacked Yes18c109.34$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.08per pick35cpaid-18.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1613…6bb0backed No36c106.53$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.1850%4 W · 4 L+1.3wins+0.17per pick33cpaid+70.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4a1f…1a9fbacked Yes14c104.18$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.096923.2%16 W · 53 L+5.0wins+0.07per pick16cpaid-7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe8c4…395dbacked No56c103.29$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.041464.3%9 W · 5 L+2.3wins+0.16per pick48cpaid+30.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xaf05…33e2backed No80c103$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.991752.9%9 W · 8 L-2.1wins-0.12per pick65cpaid-20.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9a3f…914abacked No79c100$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.95547.3%26 W · 29 L+4.0wins+0.07per pick40cpaid+20.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed Yes13c100$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.920148.8%98 W · 103 L+11.5wins+0.06per pick43cpaid+0.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2d62…0a41backed Yes17c100$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.34616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.15per pick31cpaid-78.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3646…ba5abacked Yes19c100$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1940%0 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd677…aa0ebacked Yes19c93.02$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.78944.4%4 W · 5 L+1.0wins+0.11per pick34cpaid+4.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfcc4…f3dabacked Yes17c89.6$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.592060%12 W · 8 L+1.9wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+15.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5968…3fc4backed No61c86$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.715855.2%32 W · 26 L+2.6wins+0.04per pick51cpaid-7.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf5cc…3dc2backed Yes35c85$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.9530%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4916…f56fbacked No56c83.13$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.5717350.3%87 W · 86 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x061c…ba08backed No37c81.97$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.97475%3 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.17per pick58cpaid+45.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4dfa…b490backed Yes67c77.23$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.53540%2 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick40cpaid+7.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked Yes62c74.22$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.915848.3%28 W · 30 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-11.2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xdf0e…c02bbacked Yes42c74$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.238123.5%19 W · 62 L-9.6wins-0.12per pick35cpaid-55.1%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x2e1f…8fdebacked Yes55c64$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.3911636.2%42 W · 74 L+2.4wins+0.02per pick34cpaid+4.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9631…a38cbacked Yes21c61.29$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.811735.3%6 W · 11 L-0.9wins-0.05per pick40cpaid-3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3dd6…17d6backed No67c60.99$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.84425%1 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.28per pick53cpaid-62.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfd45…c05ebacked Yes23c60.73$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.052429.2%7 W · 17 L+1.2wins+0.05per pick24cpaid-37.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No69c60$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.815848.3%28 W · 30 L-2.1wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-22.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9687…1b7cbacked Yes33c60$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202133.3%7 W · 14 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick31cpaid+35.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x78c5…f623backed Yes25c58.43$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.323525.7%9 W · 26 L-3.5wins-0.10per pick36cpaid-44.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes63c53$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.1872935.5%259 W · 470 L-57.8wins-0.08per pick43cpaid-26.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xbcd6…f3c8backed No55c52.12$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.451553.3%8 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x69f0…fb27backed Yes26c50.65$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.072737%10 W · 17 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-40.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x077c…8b1fbacked No55c50$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.35837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-29%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa6f7…1f33backed Yes22c48$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.613540%14 W · 21 L+1.9wins+0.06per pick34cpaid+5.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7244…72e4backed No40c46.34$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.951421.4%3 W · 11 L0.0wins0.00per pick21cpaid-40.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x54c6…e5c2backed Yes34c40.3$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.81580%4 W · 1 L+2.6wins+0.52per pick28cpaid+222.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x758b…0a1cbacked Yes39c40$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.4510938.5%42 W · 67 L-6.5wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-27.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa34d…b57fbacked No78c38.99$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.512272.7%16 W · 6 L+2.9wins+0.13per pick59cpaid+15.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x98ac…40d9backed No53c34$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.882646.2%12 W · 14 L-1.4wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-6.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa667…ceb3backed No39c32.38$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.695738.6%22 W · 35 L-2.3wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-30.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0c47…37e8backed Yes48c31.51$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152737%10 W · 17 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-16.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xba19…bfc3backed No67c29.93$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.93333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-50.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1004…58ecbacked Yes67c29.9$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201127.3%3 W · 8 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick34cpaid-61.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1c8e…aacbbacked No68c29.5$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.5450%2 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-29.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x721a…9295backed Yes60c22.29$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.428150.6%41 W · 40 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-4.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x468a…3b4bbacked No80c21.39$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.282100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+47.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x61f2…e77abacked No69c20$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.211758.8%10 W · 7 L-1.1wins-0.07per pick65cpaid-11.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x52d7…0ff9backed No73c20$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.311060%6 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick56cpaid-8.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8652…3241backed No76c15.73$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.73333.3%1 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.38per pick71cpaid-56.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2490…4ecfbacked No71c15.03$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.361100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+40.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.