AI · resolved market
Will Tesla deliver between 450000 and 475000 vehicles in Q2 2026
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2925e32df6f1cc297aa7f060aea103815ae0405926cd12ba9f244bfdface818c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $51,757
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $44,986
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $51,757 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 93 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x70ff…b65fbacked Yes | 9c | 6,191$533 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$532.67 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | +2.1wins | +0.10per pick | 14cpaid | +164.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a51…006ebacked Yes | 48c | 2,761$1,320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,320.22 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 7c | 2,049$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.57 | 178 | 24.2%43 W · 135 L | -12.4wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -56%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7dce…4682backed Yes | 18c | 1,795$323 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$322.54 | 36 | 25%9 W · 27 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5085…22c7backed Yes | 55c | 1,738$952 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$951.81 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +35.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf61f…3b3dbacked Yes | 38c | 1,133$428 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$427.82 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +58.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x961a…73acbacked Yes | 14c | 1,110$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.59 | 46 | 41.3%19 W · 27 L | +3.6wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 68c | 981.8$665 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$316.5 | 85 | 47.1%40 W · 45 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd555…e28abacked Yes | 19c | 953.29$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.75 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | +3.4wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a2c…7f01backed Yes | 33c | 909.6$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.09 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.29per pick | 38cpaid | +74.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…2387backed No | 58c | 902.11$523 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$379.12 | 128 | 39.8%51 W · 77 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9617…2f8ebacked Yes | 15c | 899.94$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.09 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -72.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 24c | 875.86$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.44 | 101 | 26.7%27 W · 74 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b9…e44ebacked No | 55c | 872.78$480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$392.78 | 142 | 50%71 W · 71 L | +10.5wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +70.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x88ee…c234backed Yes | 15c | 763.33$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.5 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -3.0wins | -0.27per pick | 37cpaid | -80.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf5d6…b213backed Yes | 13c | 671.76$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.33 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 27cpaid | -57.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 14c | 605.64$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.12 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98a3…93edbacked Yes | 16c | 585.28$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.26 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb133…94fbbacked Yes | 28c | 574.93$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.33per pick | 42cpaid | +141%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x124e…a8a9backed Yes | 11c | 559.36$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.89 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x54d1…13f4backed No | 55c | 540.4$299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$241.83 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.17per pick | 43cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes | 10c | 500.89$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.88 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03f7…c0ccbacked Yes | 8c | 499.99$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e62…64a7backed Yes | 11c | 473.37$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x725c…34e4backed Yes | 34c | 405.7$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.81 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -69.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91ff…8f40backed Yes | 27c | 399.99$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.18 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.15per pick | 38cpaid | -69.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 69c | 360.7$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.07 | 89 | 42.7%38 W · 51 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 30c | 337.95$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236.23 | 294 | 30.6%90 W · 204 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 66c | 310.13$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.63 | 893 | 17.1%153 W · 740 L | -144.9wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes | 35c | 300$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.5 | 125 | 33.6%42 W · 83 L | -12.2wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes | 20c | 296.99$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.86 | 60 | 41.7%25 W · 35 L | +3.7wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdad7…005abacked Yes | 41c | 290$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.95 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ed3…7ad4backed Yes | 36c | 280.74$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d66…7851backed No | 63c | 266.16$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.57 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 20c | 255.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.22 | 256 | 32.8%84 W · 172 L | -24.1wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x03aa…63fbbacked Yes | 42c | 251.42$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.35per pick | 31cpaid | +204.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd0bf…9f9fbacked Yes | 7c | 237.33$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 19 | 0%0 W · 19 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 52c | 234.77$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.56 | 74 | 48.6%36 W · 38 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x62f6…6300backed No | 68c | 227.46$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.37 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -31%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Yes | 14c | 217$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.43 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -19%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 5c | 200$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 304 | 2%6 W · 298 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -70.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…aaf7backed Yes | 13c | 171.46$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.48 | 220 | 19.5%43 W · 177 L | -11.7wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 22c | 167.03$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.95 | 67 | 26.9%18 W · 49 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b9…04f6backed Yes | 18c | 153.21$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.41 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23cb…0357backed No | 67c | 147.88$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.31 | 37 | 62.2%23 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5203…b975backed Yes | 34c | 147.05$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59c6…8332backed Yes | 39c | 126.95$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x118f…a70bbacked Yes | 18c | 109.34$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1613…6bb0backed No | 36c | 106.53$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.1 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +70.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1f…1a9fbacked Yes | 14c | 104.18$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.09 | 69 | 23.2%16 W · 53 L | +5.0wins | +0.07per pick | 16cpaid | -7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c4…395dbacked No | 56c | 103.29$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.04 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +2.3wins | +0.16per pick | 48cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaf05…33e2backed No | 80c | 103$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.99 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -2.1wins | -0.12per pick | 65cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9a3f…914abacked No | 79c | 100$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.9 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | +4.0wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 201 | 48.8%98 W · 103 L | +11.5wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2d62…0a41backed Yes | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.34 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 31cpaid | -78.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3646…ba5abacked Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd677…aa0ebacked Yes | 19c | 93.02$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.78 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 34cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfcc4…f3dabacked Yes | 17c | 89.6$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.59 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +1.9wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed No | 61c | 86$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.71 | 58 | 55.2%32 W · 26 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5cc…3dc2backed Yes | 35c | 85$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.95 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4916…f56fbacked No | 56c | 83.13$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.57 | 173 | 50.3%87 W · 86 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x061c…ba08backed No | 37c | 81.97$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.97 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 58cpaid | +45.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4dfa…b490backed Yes | 67c | 77.23$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.53 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked Yes | 62c | 74.22$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.91 | 58 | 48.3%28 W · 30 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf0e…c02bbacked Yes | 42c | 74$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.23 | 81 | 23.5%19 W · 62 L | -9.6wins | -0.12per pick | 35cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked Yes | 55c | 64$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.39 | 116 | 36.2%42 W · 74 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9631…a38cbacked Yes | 21c | 61.29$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.81 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd6…17d6backed No | 67c | 60.99$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.84 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.28per pick | 53cpaid | -62.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd45…c05ebacked Yes | 23c | 60.73$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.05 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 69c | 60$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.81 | 58 | 48.3%28 W · 30 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9687…1b7cbacked Yes | 33c | 60$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +35.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78c5…f623backed Yes | 25c | 58.43$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.32 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | -3.5wins | -0.10per pick | 36cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 63c | 53$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.18 | 729 | 35.5%259 W · 470 L | -57.8wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbcd6…f3c8backed No | 55c | 52.12$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.45 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed Yes | 26c | 50.65$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.07 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x077c…8b1fbacked No | 55c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.35 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -29%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6f7…1f33backed Yes | 22c | 48$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.61 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7244…72e4backed No | 40c | 46.34$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.95 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x54c6…e5c2backed Yes | 34c | 40.3$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.81 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +2.6wins | +0.52per pick | 28cpaid | +222.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x758b…0a1cbacked Yes | 39c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.45 | 109 | 38.5%42 W · 67 L | -6.5wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked No | 78c | 38.99$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.51 | 22 | 72.7%16 W · 6 L | +2.9wins | +0.13per pick | 59cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x98ac…40d9backed No | 53c | 34$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.88 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa667…ceb3backed No | 39c | 32.38$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.69 | 57 | 38.6%22 W · 35 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c47…37e8backed Yes | 48c | 31.51$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba19…bfc3backed No | 67c | 29.93$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.93 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -50.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1004…58ecbacked Yes | 67c | 29.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -61.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c8e…aacbbacked No | 68c | 29.5$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.5 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed Yes | 60c | 22.29$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.42 | 81 | 50.6%41 W · 40 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x468a…3b4bbacked No | 80c | 21.39$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.28 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61f2…e77abacked No | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.21 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 65cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52d7…0ff9backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.31 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8652…3241backed No | 76c | 15.73$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.73 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.38per pick | 71cpaid | -56.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2490…4ecfbacked No | 71c | 15.03$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.36 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Tesla deliver between 450000 and 475000 vehicles in Q2 2026this page
- Will Tesla deliver 475000 or more vehicles in Q2 2026Yes won
- Will Tesla deliver between 300000 and 325000 vehicles in Q2 2026No won
- Will Tesla deliver between 325000 and 350000 vehicles in Q2 2026No won
- Will Tesla deliver between 350000 and 375000 vehicles in Q2 2026No won
- Will Tesla deliver between 375000 and 400000 vehicles in Q2 2026No won
- Will Tesla deliver between 400000 and 425000 vehicles in Q2 2026No won
- Will Tesla deliver between 425000 and 450000 vehicles in Q2 2026No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.