TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Midterms · resolved market

Will Alan Wilson win the South Carolina Republican Governor Primary Runoff by at least 15%?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$75,321
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$58,310

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $75,321 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 83 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x0380…073dbacked No7c4,693$327 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$327.4414729.9%44 W · 103 L-2.8wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-36.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9eae…98a5backed No7c4,016$287 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$286.9185.6%1 W · 17 L-1.6wins-0.09per pick14cpaid-92.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xecaa…77a9backed Yes54c3,931$2,105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,826.2315150.3%76 W · 75 L+0.3wins0.00per pick50cpaid-17.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc023…5ae8backed No8c3,374$258 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$257.740%0 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2cc7…2385backed No7c3,000$215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$215.25258%2 W · 23 L-1.3wins-0.05per pick13cpaid-83.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x03fc…c127backed No2c2,995$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.8710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed No7c2,989$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$210.231534%107 W · 208 L-11.6wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-33.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x077e…06d2backed No6c2,870$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$175.07714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.2wins-0.17per pick31cpaid-70.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7980…feadbacked No7c2,700$176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$175.550%0 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaabd…0992backed No8c2,600$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$197.820%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x86c1…cacebacked No7c1,800$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.6922.2%2 W · 7 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick19cpaid-56.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1733…9411backed Yes80c1,487$1,187 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$300.297100%7 W · 0 L+2.1wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+56.2%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x048a…9be4backed No9c1,250$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1102528%7 W · 18 L-2.5wins-0.10per pick38cpaid-34.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9797…c193backed No7c1,235$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.381216.7%2 W · 10 L-1.3wins-0.11per pick28cpaid-72.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb7e9…bdacbacked No8c1,104$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.554729.8%14 W · 33 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick27cpaid-37.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x567d…f927backed No39c900$354 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35450%0 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xed11…10bebacked No8c900$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.3812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.9wins-0.11per pick24cpaid-73.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x34cb…7588backed No8c800$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.75125.5%13 W · 38 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-17.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf2a9…fdb6backed No47c800$373 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$373333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-38.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbd14…76b4backed No8c775.92$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.415431.2%48 W · 106 L-5.4wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-18.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked No7c592.37$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.058332.5%27 W · 56 L-3.9wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-36.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc4d6…966bbacked No9c587.46$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.6620%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcd91…32b8backed No5c539.79$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.393751.4%19 W · 18 L+1.6wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+20.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8575…87febacked No35c506$177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$177.242045%9 W · 11 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+39.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfd08…ee64backed No7c500$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.61933.3%3 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick33cpaid-39.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x93bc…2ec2backed No47c500$235 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23540%0 W · 4 L-1.6wins-0.40per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x13a9…e573backed No9c500$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.54119.5%8 W · 33 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick21cpaid+3.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfe41…9f23backed No26c500$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1304531.1%14 W · 31 L-6.1wins-0.14per pick45cpaid-44.7%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xeaa9…1737backed No47c498$234 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$234.067326%19 W · 54 L-10.6wins-0.14per pick40cpaid-39%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xa6dc…12ecbacked No7c471.26$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.7240%0 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc722…1334backed No10c459.77$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.36714.3%1 W · 6 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick10cpaid-53.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc602…7fc1backed No12c428.36$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.1424831%77 W · 171 L-8.9wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-37.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc03f…249dbacked No28c400$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.69326.9%25 W · 68 L-8.2wins-0.09per pick36cpaid-24.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xa821…0bc8backed No7c400$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29520%1 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.17per pick37cpaid-73.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x49b5…d249backed Yes78c349.01$271 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.451100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+29%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1c4f…e321backed No13c328.68$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.712360.9%14 W · 9 L+2.5wins+0.11per pick50cpaid+18.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x80e5…2418backed No9c313.99$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.32616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick23cpaid-79.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf26e…cf82backed No6c300$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1820%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xdf0e…c02bbacked No11c258$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.835839.7%23 W · 35 L-2.8wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-34.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked No9c251.57$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.391042.9%3 W · 101 L-3.8wins-0.04per pick7cpaid-63.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x511f…cbe1backed No33c206.97$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.3310245.1%46 W · 56 L-0.2wins0.00per pick45cpaid-10.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2277…6604backed No47c205.71$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.641136.4%4 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-30.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x333d…e8b7backed No46c200$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.18per pick52cpaid-37.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1f92…d732backed No6c200$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1230%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf6d2…7048backed No10c200$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.850%0 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x66a1…80d9backed No8c200$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.9646.3%4 W · 60 L-2.4wins-0.04per pick10cpaid-40.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked No46c181.18$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.77451.4%38 W · 36 L+2.3wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-5.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No17c179$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.6117140.4%69 W · 102 L-7.5wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-28.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf333…ba41backed No20c160$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$326636.4%24 W · 42 L-3.0wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-26%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x27da…d24abacked No7c155$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.4870%0 W · 7 L-1.0wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc6e3…6867backed No11c153.95$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.9310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc518…2594backed No15c150$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.5510340.8%42 W · 61 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-26.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x095b…8a05backed No20c139$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.8825%2 W · 6 L-1.5wins-0.19per pick44cpaid-60.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked No8c136.21$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.4433421.9%73 W · 261 L-23.8wins-0.07per pick29cpaid-35%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xb0d6…7475backed No13c132.02$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.586336.5%23 W · 40 L-2.2wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-38%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbe74…a70ebacked No14c129.47$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.63321.2%7 W · 26 L-3.0wins-0.09per pick30cpaid-49.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9779…c429backed No9c128.1$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.62250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-37.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8919…d64ebacked No28c126.77$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.77366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.17per pick49cpaid+11.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x126e…c360backed No12c119.99$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.14per pick28cpaid-82.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No53c117$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.7245035.1%158 W · 292 L-37.8wins-0.08per pick44cpaid-26.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x9495…468fbacked No17c105$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.058541.2%35 W · 50 L-3.5wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-23.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No17c102.33$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.9118237.4%68 W · 114 L-3.6wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-30.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x94ae…d801backed Yes34c100$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick39cpaid-1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9da9…ec6fbacked No34c100$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.51136.4%4 W · 7 L-1.0wins-0.09per pick45cpaid-33%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No31c86.19$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.7112545.6%57 W · 68 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+0.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x18dc…5e90backed No53c84.96$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.36825%2 W · 6 L-1.1wins-0.13per pick38cpaid-41.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x85d5…6b2bbacked No17c83.04$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.131338.5%5 W · 8 L-2.4wins-0.18per pick57cpaid-39.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x7e80…631bbacked No14c81.02$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.728132.1%26 W · 55 L-8.8wins-0.11per pick43cpaid-29.8%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xfca7…8966backed No47c68.02$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.9730%0 W · 3 L-1.4wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc662…0927backed No20c67.86$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.571154.5%6 W · 5 L+1.7wins+0.16per pick39cpaid+28.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8fe7…6c1fbacked No67c59$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.815561.8%34 W · 21 L+3.2wins+0.06per pick56cpaid+7.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb92a…f51cbacked No47c57.84$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.18771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.2wins+0.16per pick55cpaid+17.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No46c51$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.610947.7%52 W · 57 L0.0wins0.00per pick48cpaid-15.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xac8c…cd77backed No46c51$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.4610%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x34fd…15a0backed Yes45c50$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.52100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.56per pick45cpaid+124.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6d56…9081backed No56c50$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick65cpaid-31.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2b59…9db6backed No66c37.94$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.168051.3%41 W · 39 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-13.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x15e1…1b3dbacked No48c30$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.4977.8%7 W · 2 L+1.3wins+0.15per pick63cpaid+8.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x63ac…4127backed Yes47c29.98$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.89333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.13per pick21cpaid-29.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed No56c26.82$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.0266914.8%99 W · 570 L-105.6wins-0.16per pick31cpaid-66%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No64c26.04$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.541457.1%8 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick58cpaid-3.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4c10…5d44backed No68c20.81$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.2410%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.68per pick68cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x052a…6b29backed No57c20$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.410%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.57per pick57cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.