TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Midterms · resolved market

Will Josh Tenorio win the 2026 Guam Governor Democratic primary election?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$22,900
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$22,190

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,900 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 121 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x1f9e…4f1abacked Yes29c2,739$781 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$781.1322833.8%77 W · 151 L+13.7wins+0.06per pick28cpaid+52.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7ac8…77cdbacked No27c2,702$719 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,983.1519643.4%85 W · 111 L+15.5wins+0.08per pick35cpaid+23.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe8c4…395dbacked Yes29c1,818$527 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$527.226750.7%34 W · 33 L+3.3wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+6.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2b9d…adc0backed No72c1,388$992 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$395.376152.5%32 W · 29 L+5.1wins+0.08per pick44cpaid+11.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xfd72…6cc4backed Yes76c848$644 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$644.482470.8%17 W · 7 L+1.4wins+0.06per pick65cpaid+7.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4f1d…8de2backed No45c744.51$334 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$410.178149.4%40 W · 41 L+1.8wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-12.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x52fd…75c1backed Yes67c738.58$494 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$493.6410%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.67per pick67cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8373…f0bcbacked No71c674.99$477 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$197.773836.8%14 W · 24 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-15.3%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xa328…4977backed No66c652$429 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$223.0110739.3%42 W · 65 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick38cpaid-15.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc0c6…b50bbacked Yes76c532.1$404 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$404.41560%9 W · 6 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick59cpaid+7.3%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x7cbd…1288backed Yes30c429.98$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.991323.1%3 W · 10 L-1.5wins-0.12per pick35cpaid-63.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7765…99b4backed Yes24c422.39$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.2810%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No61c392.69$240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$152.6813243.9%58 W · 74 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-15.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbd14…76b4backed No67c388.13$258 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$129.9915531%48 W · 107 L-5.6wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-18.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x168f…9e00backed No69c354$244 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.748831.8%28 W · 60 L-5.4wins-0.06per pick38cpaid-29.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xfe9e…6944backed Yes32c314.13$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1004544.4%20 W · 25 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick42cpaid-1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa6a5…f0cdbacked Yes33c298.6$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbcd6…f3c8backed Yes26c260.94$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.843756.8%21 W · 16 L+3.5wins+0.09per pick47cpaid+16.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xe086…0450backed No71c255$182 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.965850%29 W · 29 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-19.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes28c251$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.3318126%47 W · 134 L-5.1wins-0.03per pick29cpaid-14.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9fb1…acc2backed Yes36c248.77$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.56333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-7.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7039…4a7dbacked No65c241.62$157 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.573100%3 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+52.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5562…3b41backed No61c232.8$141 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.571100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+64.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x758b…0a1cbacked No65c232.02$151 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.677035.7%25 W · 45 L-5.5wins-0.08per pick44cpaid-40.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes62c220$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.412330.9%38 W · 85 L-10.0wins-0.08per pick39cpaid-35.1%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xecc4…7a2abacked Yes26c209.24$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.420%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No69c207.25$144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.5814729.9%44 W · 103 L-2.8wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-36.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8604…fd3abacked Yes39c200$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.46850%4 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-24.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe340…39f9backed Yes24c196.72$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.211127.3%3 W · 8 L-1.6wins-0.15per pick42cpaid-51.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1e30…c14dbacked Yes41c185.57$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.2810%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes48c160.25$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.92250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+44.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfd9c…be4dbacked Yes37c159$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.831127.3%3 W · 8 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick31cpaid-22.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes36c154.02$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.1449711.5%57 W · 440 L-17.8wins-0.04per pick15cpaid-28.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4435…786fbacked No73c150$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.54639.1%18 W · 28 L-3.1wins-0.07per pick46cpaid-13.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No70c149$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.3917240.7%70 W · 102 L-7.3wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-27.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5675…f6a6backed No68c147.05$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.06862.5%5 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-10.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa667…ceb3backed No72c137.76$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.798757.5%50 W · 37 L+9.9wins+0.11per pick46cpaid+15.3%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x9f2a…3706backed No69c135.44$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.991145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-28.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe2b4…3c5abacked Yes44c129.99$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.93647.2%17 W · 19 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick44cpaid-10%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4959…a6f5backed No35c128.9$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.7921155.9%118 W · 93 L+6.3wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+6.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x46fb…2b75backed Yes77c120$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.41435.7%5 W · 9 L-1.1wins-0.08per pick44cpaid+55.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd249…e74cbacked No65c119.25$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.63100%3 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+52.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x03e1…e180backed No67c109.28$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.412157.1%12 W · 9 L+3.6wins+0.17per pick40cpaid+86.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No64c108.18$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.2518337.7%69 W · 114 L-3.2wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-29.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No49c106$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.0112150.4%61 W · 60 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-16.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x942e…be27backed No64c105.7$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.559147.3%43 W · 48 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-8.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf33e…0ab8backed No62c101.98$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.094643.5%20 W · 26 L-2.4wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-24.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd60f…b6c4backed No70c100$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$301850%9 W · 9 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-14.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf0e0…016abacked No68c100$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$322412.5%3 W · 21 L-4.0wins-0.17per pick29cpaid-80.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x873d…1862backed No56c100$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.5333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.29per pick62cpaid-39.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x74aa…2c3fbacked No68c100$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$322119%4 W · 17 L-2.7wins-0.13per pick32cpaid-63.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xb042…14f3backed No67c100$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$332339.1%9 W · 14 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-19%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x94e4…6be5backed Yes70c100$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7020%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc24f…220bbacked Yes33c96.36$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.391741.2%7 W · 10 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick44cpaid+1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes44c91.96$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.1733238.6%128 W · 204 L-8.8wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-30%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x061c…ba08backed No65c91.66$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.65450%2 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-27.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf992…ebb5backed Yes31c91$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.5616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.19per pick36cpaid-75.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No69c90$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.999035.6%32 W · 58 L-2.3wins-0.03per pick38cpaid-42.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked No60c88.56$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.5813647.1%64 W · 72 L+2.9wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-6.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xce4d…d0e2backed Yes23c87.42$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.747437.8%28 W · 46 L-3.1wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-18%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9a51…bf4cbacked Yes30c86$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.81957.9%11 W · 8 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick57cpaid-8.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0306…a81ebacked No65c82.87$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$291145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick52cpaid-16%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7257…fc40backed Yes25c75.2$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.121442.9%6 W · 8 L+1.3wins+0.10per pick33cpaid+0.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No38c75.08$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.5312545.6%57 W · 68 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+0.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3c32…7156backed Yes29c75$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.753855.3%21 W · 17 L+1.6wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+3.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x215a…254cbacked No32c73.52$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.994723.4%11 W · 36 L-3.0wins-0.06per pick30cpaid-36.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2353…67bfbacked No70c71.71$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.71366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick61cpaid+4.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x363c…4463backed Yes28c71.55$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.251931.6%6 W · 13 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-34.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf3ac…f23dbacked No69c71.02$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.798741.4%36 W · 51 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-3.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xcb58…ccd0backed Yes40c70$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.32657.7%15 W · 11 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick61cpaid-19%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7a5c…767bbacked Yes41c68.57$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.811464.3%9 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick64cpaid-7.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb2f6…5d2dbacked Yes27c63.9$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.36540%2 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-35.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa575…f2d0backed Yes24c63$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.122445.8%11 W · 13 L0.0wins0.00per pick46cpaid-10.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x90b9…1951backed Yes27c62.87$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.142025%5 W · 15 L-3.9wins-0.19per pick44cpaid-61.9%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xc71b…e265backed Yes23c60.3$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.6516020.6%33 W · 127 L-4.0wins-0.02per pick23cpaid-26.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed Yes27c59.99$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.3366914.8%99 W · 570 L-105.6wins-0.16per pick31cpaid-66%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes26c55.92$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.5413317.3%23 W · 110 L-10.0wins-0.07per pick25cpaid-25.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xc602…7fc1backed No73c55$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.8525030.8%77 W · 173 L-9.4wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-37.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xdf0e…c02bbacked No66c51.18$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.535839.7%23 W · 35 L-2.8wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-34.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x30fb…7db4backed No68c50$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$169846.9%46 W · 52 L+2.5wins+0.03per pick44cpaid-4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc8a2…c9b6backed No57c50$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.253151.6%16 W · 15 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-14.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6709…af18backed Yes24c50$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-57.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xea31…a889backed No67c50$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.5944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick41cpaid-21.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa6f7…1f33backed Yes37c49.73$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.23948.7%19 W · 20 L+2.9wins+0.07per pick41cpaid+10.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No71c49.06$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.4310048%48 W · 52 L+3.8wins+0.04per pick44cpaid-4.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe457…5ab3backed No58c48.81$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.510133.7%34 W · 67 L-4.5wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-27.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5579…2db1backed No68c45.08$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.43425%1 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.19per pick44cpaid-63.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5cdd…4648backed No66c44.65$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.183100%3 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+52.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes71c42.5$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.0445035.1%158 W · 292 L-37.8wins-0.08per pick44cpaid-26.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x0da3…67fabacked Yes29c41$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.89633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-29.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1c62…ca89backed Yes27c40$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.81050%5 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid+1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2b59…9db6backed No62c40$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.28151.9%42 W · 39 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-12.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9495…468fbacked No64c40$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.48541.2%35 W · 50 L-3.5wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-23.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9592…a8fdbacked No64c35.69$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.851020%2 W · 8 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick26cpaid-60.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe8c4…ea5cbacked No54c34.9$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.051560%9 W · 6 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick59cpaid+4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x073e…8416backed No68c28.64$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.161338.5%5 W · 8 L-2.4wins-0.19per pick57cpaid-45.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe602…a622backed Yes69c28.5$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.6730%0 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No74c27$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.9111048.2%53 W · 57 L+0.3wins0.00per pick48cpaid-15.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd10a…b9cdbacked No55c24.9$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.2366.7%2 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaf05…33e2backed No61c24.09$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.461258.3%7 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick61cpaid-6.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.