World Politics · resolved market
Will Rachel Reeves be in the Burnham cabinet?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0d7ceb075dbf2cae08611466b6450e34a62424c52411278770dc52d1f0c6a0f4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,158
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,959
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,158 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9578…f066backed Yes | 60c | 1,342$801 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$801.48 | 86 | 57%49 W · 37 L | +6.4wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x993b…dedabacked No | 42c | 998.69$417 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$582.1 | 37 | 56.8%21 W · 16 L | +3.6wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +188.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1543…baafbacked No | 49c | 708.18$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$357.92 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +4.0wins | +0.15per pick | 33cpaid | +25%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6f46…2cd1backed No | 36c | 570$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$366.2 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3ec…6603backed No | 31c | 524.94$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$364.09 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +2.5wins | +0.23per pick | 50cpaid | +56.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x08b4…624ebacked Yes | 2c | 500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9182…3368backed Yes | 60c | 413.12$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246 | 46 | 23.9%11 W · 35 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6291…cc47backed Yes | 51c | 400$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204 | 284 | 34.2%97 W · 187 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbefc…9408backed Yes | 9c | 400$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e35…1a6cbacked Yes | 59c | 337.99$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.06 | 261 | 39.8%104 W · 157 L | +16.3wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xda37…1d00backed No | 68c | 293.35$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.35 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.36per pick | 31cpaid | +133.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2598…40a3backed No | 48c | 247.04$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.06 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +153.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8030…7b74backed Yes | 31c | 233.59$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.41 | 55 | 58.2%32 W · 23 L | +15.2wins | +0.28per pick | 31cpaid | +73.3%equal weight | 71+0.19 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 32c | 218.38$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.16 | 193 | 15.5%30 W · 163 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5eda…d453backed Yes | 45c | 135.09$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.59 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked No | 29c | 134.85$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.18 | 182 | 16.5%30 W · 152 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe72b…3c9cbacked Yes | 68c | 124$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.62 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17ed…c087backed No | 35c | 111.42$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.96 | 86 | 41.9%36 W · 50 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -23%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe72…f18cbacked No | 42c | 100$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.08 | 50 | 58%29 W · 21 L | +4.6wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 47c | 91$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.32 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x62b1…310abacked No | 33c | 88.26$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.3 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9032…b5c3backed Yes | 60c | 83$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.49 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45e6…c078backed Yes | 18c | 74.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.54 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6041…0432backed Yes | 69c | 74.41$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae19…5cb0backed Yes | 69c | 61.2$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.23 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 36c | 60$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.2 | 246 | 37.4%92 W · 154 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x758b…0a1cbacked No | 44c | 59.98$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.39 | 86 | 43%37 W · 49 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f49…11abbacked Yes | 69c | 57.97$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf33e…0ab8backed No | 39c | 56.7$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.82 | 55 | 52.7%29 W · 26 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc31…3fe8backed No | 51c | 53.38$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.29 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 54cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8a2…c9b6backed Yes | 70c | 50$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -5.1wins | -0.24per pick | 62cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4916…f56fbacked Yes | 56c | 46.75$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.06 | 110 | 45.5%50 W · 60 L | -6.2wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1b3d…b7f1backed No | 42c | 45.52$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.43 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -2.5wins | -0.21per pick | 38cpaid | -64.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x72f3…92d6backed Yes | 60c | 45.5$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.3 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -2.0wins | -0.28per pick | 57cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x85df…fb48backed Yes | 64c | 44.74$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.57 | 46 | 30.4%14 W · 32 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 69c | 40.06$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.44 | 274 | 38.3%105 W · 169 L | -32.3wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2277…6604backed Yes | 69c | 39.37$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.17 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc23…5a3dbacked No | 58c | 34.62$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.54 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 59c | 32.49$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.29 | 990 | 17.2%170 W · 820 L | -148.8wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 34-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x17f4…9d7fbacked Yes | 70c | 30$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -3.2wins | -0.36per pick | 58cpaid | -68.6%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb125…bce0backed No | 43c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.21 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +1.5wins | +0.11per pick | 32cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a7f…6413backed Yes | 60c | 26$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.51 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.3wins | -0.39per pick | 55cpaid | -74.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x081a…66d0backed Yes | 54c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 142 | 25.4%36 W · 106 L | -8.0wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7f96…a226backed No | 53c | 24.13$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.4 | 80 | 51.3%41 W · 39 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3bca…c6dabacked No | 54c | 24$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.04 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.33per pick | 47cpaid | +81.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 70c | 21$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 316 | 35.1%111 W · 205 L | -11.1wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f2a…3706backed No | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 48 | 39.6%19 W · 29 L | -4.1wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2cbf…6e11backed No | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc798…6254backed Yes | 69c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -2.6wins | -0.19per pick | 47cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xafbe…072ebacked No | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.0wins | +0.29per pick | 57cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x095b…8a05backed Yes | 69c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -2.9wins | -0.16per pick | 44cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x576e…f8e0backed No | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +60.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1104…002abacked Yes | 71c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x519b…426dbacked No | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 39cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9422…f273backed Yes | 66c | 19.55$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.89 | 79 | 51.9%41 W · 38 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked Yes | 68c | 18$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.32 | 150 | 76%114 W · 36 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 26 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Rachel Reeves be in the Burnham cabinet?this page
- Will Alan Campbell be in the Burnham cabinet?Yes won
- Will Angela Rayner be in the Burnham cabinet?Yes won
- Will Bridget Phillipson be in the Burnham cabinet?Yes won
- Will Catherine West be in the Burnham cabinet?No won
- Will Dan Jarvis be in the Burnham cabinet?No won
- Will Darren Jones be in the Burnham cabinet?No won
- Will David Lammy be in the Burnham cabinet?No won
- Will Ed Miliband be in the Burnham cabinet?Yes won
- Will Heidi Alexander be in the Burnham cabinet?Yes won
- Will Hilary Benn be in the Burnham cabinet?No won
- Will Jacqui Smith be in the Burnham cabinet?No won
- Will James Murray be in the Burnham cabinet?No won
- Will Jess Phillips be in the Burnham cabinet?No won
- Will Jo Stevens be in the Burnham cabinet?No won
- Will John Healey be in the Burnham cabinet?Yes won
- Will Jonathan Reynolds be in the Burnham cabinet?Yes won
- Will Keir Starmer be in the Burnham cabinet?No won
- Will Lisa Nandy be in the Burnham cabinet?Yes won
- Will Liz Kendall be in the Burnham cabinet?No won
- Will Louise Haigh be in the Burnham cabinet?Yes won
- Will Pat McFadden be in the Burnham cabinet?Yes won
- Will Patrick Vallance be in the Burnham cabinet?No won
- Will Steve Reed be in the Burnham cabinet?No won
- Will Wes Streeting be in the Burnham cabinet?Yes won
- Will Yvette Cooper be in the Burnham cabinet?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.