TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

World Politics · resolved market

Will Rachel Reeves be in the Burnham cabinet?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$12,158
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$12,959

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,158 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in World Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x9578…f066backed Yes60c1,342$801 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$801.488657%49 W · 37 L+6.4wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+25.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x993b…dedabacked No42c998.69$417 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$582.13756.8%21 W · 16 L+3.6wins+0.10per pick47cpaid+188.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1543…baafbacked No49c708.18$350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$357.922748.1%13 W · 14 L+4.0wins+0.15per pick33cpaid+25%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x6f46…2cd1backed No36c570$204 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$366.24045%18 W · 22 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-12.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd3ec…6603backed No31c524.94$161 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$364.091172.7%8 W · 3 L+2.5wins+0.23per pick50cpaid+56.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x08b4…624ebacked Yes2c500$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9182…3368backed Yes60c413.12$246 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2464623.9%11 W · 35 L-2.8wins-0.06per pick30cpaid-52.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6291…cc47backed Yes51c400$204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20428434.2%97 W · 187 L+5.2wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-8.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbefc…9408backed Yes9c400$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3650%0 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7e35…1a6cbacked Yes59c337.99$199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.0626139.8%104 W · 157 L+16.3wins+0.06per pick34cpaid+32.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xda37…1d00backed No68c293.35$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.35366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.36per pick31cpaid+133.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2598…40a3backed No48c247.04$118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$129.063100%3 W · 0 L+1.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+153.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8030…7b74backed Yes31c233.59$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.415558.2%32 W · 23 L+15.2wins+0.28per pick31cpaid+73.3%equal weight71+0.19 edge/pick
0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes32c218.38$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.1619315.5%30 W · 163 L-5.3wins-0.03per pick18cpaid-20.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5eda…d453backed Yes45c135.09$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.592544%11 W · 14 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-15.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6b0e…e3eabacked No29c134.85$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.1818216.5%30 W · 152 L+3.0wins+0.02per pick15cpaid-34.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe72b…3c9cbacked Yes68c124$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.621752.9%9 W · 8 L+0.9wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+22.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x17ed…c087backed No35c111.42$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.968641.9%36 W · 50 L+2.5wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-23%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfe72…f18cbacked No42c100$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.085058%29 W · 21 L+4.6wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+4.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No47c91$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.321,31843.9%579 W · 739 L-26.8wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-13%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x62b1…310abacked No33c88.26$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.3850%4 W · 4 L+0.9wins+0.12per pick38cpaid-3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9032…b5c3backed Yes60c83$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.492846.4%13 W · 15 L+1.8wins+0.06per pick40cpaid+3.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x45e6…c078backed Yes18c74.99$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.54520%1 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick26cpaid-55.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6041…0432backed Yes69c74.41$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$511136.4%4 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-24.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xae19…5cb0backed Yes69c61.2$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.2320%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked No36c60$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.224637.4%92 W · 154 L-4.3wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-30.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x758b…0a1cbacked No44c59.98$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.398643%37 W · 49 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-10.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0f49…11abbacked Yes69c57.97$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4010%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.69per pick69cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf33e…0ab8backed No39c56.7$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.825552.7%29 W · 26 L-2.3wins-0.04per pick57cpaid-6.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdc31…3fe8backed No51c53.38$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.29944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.10per pick54cpaid-13.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc8a2…c9b6backed Yes70c50$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$352138.1%8 W · 13 L-5.1wins-0.24per pick62cpaid-43.8%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x4916…f56fbacked Yes56c46.75$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.0611045.5%50 W · 60 L-6.2wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-15.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1b3d…b7f1backed No42c45.52$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.431216.7%2 W · 10 L-2.5wins-0.21per pick38cpaid-64.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x72f3…92d6backed Yes60c45.5$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.3728.6%2 W · 5 L-2.0wins-0.28per pick57cpaid-56.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x85df…fb48backed Yes64c44.74$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.574630.4%14 W · 32 L-2.9wins-0.06per pick37cpaid-35.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7e80…631bbacked Yes69c40.06$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.4427438.3%105 W · 169 L-32.3wins-0.12per pick50cpaid-35.3%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x2277…6604backed Yes69c39.37$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.171931.6%6 W · 13 L-1.7wins-0.09per pick40cpaid-47.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfc23…5a3dbacked No58c34.62$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.54650%3 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-15.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed Yes59c32.49$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.2999017.2%170 W · 820 L-148.8wins-0.15per pick32cpaid-61.5%equal weight34-0.15 edge/pick
0x17f4…9d7fbacked Yes70c30$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21922.2%2 W · 7 L-3.2wins-0.36per pick58cpaid-68.6%equal weight39-0.09 edge/pick
0xb125…bce0backed No43c30$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.211442.9%6 W · 8 L+1.5wins+0.11per pick32cpaid+34.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5a7f…6413backed Yes60c26$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.51616.7%1 W · 5 L-2.3wins-0.39per pick55cpaid-74.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x081a…66d0backed Yes54c25$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.514225.4%36 W · 106 L-8.0wins-0.06per pick31cpaid-20.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7f96…a226backed No53c24.13$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.48051.3%41 W · 39 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-10.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3bca…c6dabacked No54c24$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.04580%4 W · 1 L+1.6wins+0.33per pick47cpaid+81.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc602…7fc1backed Yes70c21$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.731635.1%111 W · 205 L-11.1wins-0.04per pick39cpaid+6.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9f2a…3706backed No51c20$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.84839.6%19 W · 29 L-4.1wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-17.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x2cbf…6e11backed No57c20$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.6250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-12.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc798…6254backed Yes69c20$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.81428.6%4 W · 10 L-2.6wins-0.19per pick47cpaid-12.2%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xafbe…072ebacked No57c20$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.6785.7%6 W · 1 L+2.0wins+0.29per pick57cpaid+36.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x095b…8a05backed Yes69c20$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.81827.8%5 W · 13 L-2.9wins-0.16per pick44cpaid-51.2%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x576e…f8e0backed No57c20$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.62100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+60.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1104…002abacked Yes71c20$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.23135.5%11 W · 20 L+0.1wins0.00per pick35cpaid-22.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x519b…426dbacked No57c20$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.6250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.12per pick39cpaid-12.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9422…f273backed Yes66c19.55$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.897951.9%41 W · 38 L-1.9wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-16.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf528…7e5bbacked Yes68c18$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.3215076%114 W · 36 L+3.0wins+0.02per pick74cpaid+2.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 26 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.