World Politics · resolved market
Will Dan Jarvis be in the Burnham cabinet?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8a94b7756e7d570de4d231d6e00c71d3a30430fa7a157ae1bf0092676d3ac887
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,960
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,061
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,960 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 7c | 453.19$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.25 | 182 | 16.5%30 W · 152 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9d…95f4backed Yes | 8c | 300$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x993b…dedabacked No | 74c | 288.14$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.35 | 37 | 56.8%21 W · 16 L | +3.6wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +188.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbc81…1da5backed Yes | 4c | 245.34$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.84 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.44per pick | 6cpaid | +507.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 12c | 214.59$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.04 | 193 | 15.5%30 W · 163 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6291…cc47backed Yes | 25c | 200$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 284 | 34.2%97 W · 187 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5eda…d453backed Yes | 38c | 169.87$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.88 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9578…f066backed No | 62c | 134.75$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.9 | 86 | 57%49 W · 37 L | +6.4wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3e9b…a0ecbacked Yes | 57c | 114.39$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 69c | 103$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.44 | 884 | 48.5%429 W · 455 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45e6…c078backed Yes | 15c | 70$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.16 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed No | 43c | 54.39$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 47 | 53.2%25 W · 22 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 31c | 50.72$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.97 | 990 | 17.2%170 W · 820 L | -148.8wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 34-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x347b…c9bcbacked No | 61c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 54 | 48.1%26 W · 28 L | -8.5wins | -0.16per pick | 64cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x85df…fb48backed Yes | 33c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 46 | 30.4%14 W · 32 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x17ed…c087backed No | 69c | 36$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 86 | 41.9%36 W · 50 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -23%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf15d…7c3dbacked No | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3089…92f6backed No | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.14per pick | 41cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7f96…a226backed No | 72c | 19.96$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.49 | 80 | 51.3%41 W · 39 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 26 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Dan Jarvis be in the Burnham cabinet?this page
- Will Alan Campbell be in the Burnham cabinet?Yes won
- Will Angela Rayner be in the Burnham cabinet?Yes won
- Will Bridget Phillipson be in the Burnham cabinet?Yes won
- Will Catherine West be in the Burnham cabinet?No won
- Will Darren Jones be in the Burnham cabinet?No won
- Will David Lammy be in the Burnham cabinet?No won
- Will Ed Miliband be in the Burnham cabinet?Yes won
- Will Heidi Alexander be in the Burnham cabinet?Yes won
- Will Hilary Benn be in the Burnham cabinet?No won
- Will Jacqui Smith be in the Burnham cabinet?No won
- Will James Murray be in the Burnham cabinet?No won
- Will Jess Phillips be in the Burnham cabinet?No won
- Will Jo Stevens be in the Burnham cabinet?No won
- Will John Healey be in the Burnham cabinet?Yes won
- Will Jonathan Reynolds be in the Burnham cabinet?Yes won
- Will Keir Starmer be in the Burnham cabinet?No won
- Will Lisa Nandy be in the Burnham cabinet?Yes won
- Will Liz Kendall be in the Burnham cabinet?No won
- Will Louise Haigh be in the Burnham cabinet?Yes won
- Will Pat McFadden be in the Burnham cabinet?Yes won
- Will Patrick Vallance be in the Burnham cabinet?No won
- Will Rachel Reeves be in the Burnham cabinet?No won
- Will Steve Reed be in the Burnham cabinet?No won
- Will Wes Streeting be in the Burnham cabinet?Yes won
- Will Yvette Cooper be in the Burnham cabinet?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.