Tweets · resolved market
Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from June 26 to July 3, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x79bd0d7abd86b7c436ba0ddc407f129d604bee595d4d135f57b82c54b150493b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,126
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,103
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,126 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfd5c…6d2abacked No | 18c | 1,299$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.91 | 625 | 39.5%247 W · 378 L | +48.1wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd0bf…9f9fbacked No | 36c | 349.52$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.78 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 78c | 345.04$268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.51 | 426 | 28.2%120 W · 306 L | -38.2wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe6db…a8f6backed Yes | 79c | 336$267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.36 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -2.7wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9592…a7b8backed No | 17c | 294.12$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 52 | 28.8%15 W · 37 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 5c | 279.91$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.7 | 388 | 48.5%188 W · 200 L | +16.2wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 19c | 172$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.73 | 797 | 35.9%286 W · 511 L | -34.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked No | 32c | 169.58$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.6 | 64 | 17.2%11 W · 53 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -64.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 9c | 136.75$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.81 | 169 | 45%76 W · 93 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f40…df2dbacked No | 15c | 123.75$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbf4…3b45backed No | 11c | 121$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.77 | 317 | 43.2%137 W · 180 L | +28.2wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9eae…98a5backed Yes | 80c | 110$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 130 | 38.5%50 W · 80 L | -11.6wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf0e0…016abacked No | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.0wins | -0.33per pick | 49cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x74aa…2c3fbacked No | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc1…a3bbbacked No | 27c | 88.51$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.76 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 46c | 87.32$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.17 | 510 | 18.2%93 W · 417 L | -89.7wins | -0.18per pick | 36cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 26c | 67.19$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.47 | 217 | 32.3%70 W · 147 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 30c | 55.7$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.66 | 210 | 63.3%133 W · 77 L | +22.8wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed No | 26c | 54.51$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.17 | 49 | 40.8%20 W · 29 L | -3.7wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0970…7889backed Yes | 42c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +138.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc05…9a76backed Yes | 21c | 50$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.5 | 33 | 69.7%23 W · 10 L | +5.0wins | +0.15per pick | 54cpaid | +35.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x095b…8a05backed No | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | -3.9wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from June 26 to July 3, 2026?this page
- Will Khamenei post 10-14 posts from June 26 to July 3, 2026?No won
- Will Khamenei post 25-29 posts from June 26 to July 3, 2026?No won
- Will Khamenei post 30-34 posts from June 26 to July 3, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.