Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 29°C on March 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xead984f0e3226802d75efdd838cc8c74a0af6b70325afdd3c49272164cb83167
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,317
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,317 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 9c | 321.09$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.47 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8dc9…dce0backed Yes | 23c | 299.96$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.88 | 57 | 31.6%18 W · 39 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 13c | 273.56$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.01 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 22c | 213.73$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.75 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 78c | 210.77$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.58 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0bd1…dff6backed Yes | 32c | 190.91$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.09 | 58 | 37.9%22 W · 36 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 20c | 170.63$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.36 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23d8…f6b9backed No | 80c | 165.2$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.75 | 251 | 75.7%190 W · 61 L | +24.7wins | +0.10per pick | 66cpaid | +14%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 79c | 149.45$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.7 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8bc4…de5abacked Yes | 26c | 145.41$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.95 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46b3…d3debacked Yes | 7c | 145.22$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.33 | 244 | 14.3%35 W · 209 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98ae…df32backed Yes | 37c | 133.32$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bcd…cf4bbacked No | 76c | 132.92$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.44 | 360 | 57.5%207 W · 153 L | +21.9wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 20c | 115.18$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.67 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2974…e9d8backed Yes | 29c | 104.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.4 | 233 | 23.6%55 W · 178 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +19%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c69…4622backed No | 62c | 86.35$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.65 | 562 | 65.5%368 W · 194 L | +35.2wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9d5a…67cebacked Yes | 25c | 86$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 111 | 28.8%32 W · 79 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7deb…7c0abacked Yes | 20c | 78.84$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.85 | 156 | 26.3%41 W · 115 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed Yes | 20c | 75.57$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.32 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed No | 75c | 67.89$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.69 | 841 | 24%202 W · 639 L | -35.9wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3487…11f5backed Yes | 25c | 60$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 96 | 53.1%51 W · 45 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc448…085ebacked Yes | 20c | 60$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 219 | 19.6%43 W · 176 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 21c | 58.11$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.41 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2967…4ae7backed Yes | 28c | 57.01$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.19 | 257 | 25.7%66 W · 191 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36c2…2b8cbacked No | 76c | 55.31$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.05 | 707 | 70.2%496 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5d8…88b4backed Yes | 28c | 50.13$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.04 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb347…0b22backed Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 46 | 41.3%19 W · 27 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6372…4a25backed No | 77c | 48.09$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.98 | 410 | 70.5%289 W · 121 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5112…fb73backed Yes | 30c | 47.93$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.39 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 74c | 33.89$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.89 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x62e2…1f89backed No | 77c | 33.49$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.7 | 100 | 67%67 W · 33 L | +7.2wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 73c | 31.43$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.44 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 76c | 28.07$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.87 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 71c | 22$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.38 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbd9…ad53backed No | 78c | 20.3$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.55 | 63 | 76.2%48 W · 15 L | +6.9wins | +0.11per pick | 65cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf300…4329backed No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x095b…8a05backed No | 71c | 17.24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4be0…c37dbacked No | 71c | 17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.88 | 190 | 58.9%112 W · 78 L | -8.2wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe164…acfebacked No | 71c | 14.49$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 80 | 76.3%61 W · 19 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 75cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64bd…82cfbacked No | 70c | 14.29$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.29 | 187 | 61%114 W · 73 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 76c | 13.56$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.24 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 29°C on March 24?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 27°C on March 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 28°C on March 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 30°C on March 24?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 31°C on March 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 32°C on March 24?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.