Movies · resolved market
Will "Michael" score at least 40 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc3121ff2f51630d25db3464545e28737b37052b1152c9aa2d49722f817133de2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $40,812
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $34,513
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $40,812 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 83 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3f5e…ddaabacked No | 59c | 2,979$1,770 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,208.72 | 33 | 54.5%18 W · 15 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb17d…59aebacked No | 50c | 2,740$1,378 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,361.31 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa5e3…4d7ebacked No | 76c | 2,241$1,693 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$547.7 | 79 | 31.6%25 W · 54 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -17%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5011…220ebacked Yes | 2c | 2,037$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 17c | 1,535$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255.62 | 473 | 28.3%134 W · 339 L | -32.8wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2574…144bbacked Yes | 2c | 1,507$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.36 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x095b…8a05backed Yes | 3c | 1,199$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.58 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8444…1cf9backed Yes | 8c | 1,134$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.47 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7418…ade1backed Yes | 3c | 841.47$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ebb…061abacked Yes | 61c | 800$491 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$491 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2a9…fdb6backed Yes | 46c | 788.82$363 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$362.85 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 58cpaid | +23%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d11…890dbacked Yes | 14c | 775.56$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb40…3612backed Yes | 2c | 727.3$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.84 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -16%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x056f…e487backed Yes | 45c | 626.92$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284.67 | 120 | 30%36 W · 84 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -20%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8daf…ef60backed Yes | 42c | 626.05$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265.24 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.16per pick | 53cpaid | -44%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf96e…a9c4backed Yes | 29c | 587.73$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.24 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8233…df36backed Yes | 8c | 566.92$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30a0…a458backed Yes | 15c | 432.86$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.91 | 31 | 9.7%3 W · 28 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 16cpaid | -78.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f56…348abacked Yes | 27c | 432.85$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.67 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe83f…35fbbacked Yes | 11c | 414.09$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.55 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26b9…9ab5backed Yes | 45c | 409$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 54c | 400$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.2 | 162 | 37.7%61 W · 101 L | +6.5wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x60fd…89a9backed Yes | 7c | 400$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 123 | 1.6%2 W · 121 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -69.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3535…75b2backed Yes | 10c | 350$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.8 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 7cpaid | +306.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f62…90a2backed Yes | 27c | 313.12$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.93 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c7d…d6ebbacked Yes | 26c | 299.16$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.47 | 331 | 23.9%79 W · 252 L | +12.0wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -15%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x517b…be02backed Yes | 9c | 292.9$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.36 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b76…9823backed Yes | 39c | 291.2$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.6 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes | 19c | 289.26$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.96 | 237 | 51.9%123 W · 114 L | +16.9wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x74c4…a983backed No | 66c | 238.57$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.5 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…7da2backed Yes | 52c | 237.92$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.1 | 45 | 44.4%20 W · 25 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 45c | 234.37$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.47 | 365 | 38.1%139 W · 226 L | -19.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9b5d…3a22backed Yes | 8c | 227$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2801…ebdcbacked Yes | 13c | 223.44$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.23 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe54b…6555backed Yes | 46c | 200$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xecb9…0c25backed Yes | 46c | 200$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…9871backed Yes | 12c | 200$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.19per pick | 33cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcffe…146dbacked No | 36c | 197.77$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.09 | 129 | 36.4%47 W · 82 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x681b…8a5abacked Yes | 47c | 190$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.3 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2892…71ddbacked Yes | 15c | 183$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.45 | 195 | 32.8%64 W · 131 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc2c1…fd82backed Yes | 7c | 177.73$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ef7…fba9backed Yes | 28c | 170.09$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.11 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28ab…2048backed No | 74c | 160.1$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.63 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 62cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3287…7058backed Yes | 18c | 150.08$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.55 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3237…5658backed Yes | 29c | 150$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.5 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x15f7…f0c4backed Yes | 29c | 149.99$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.5 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -2.4wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3ecc…1d30backed No | 71c | 144.85$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.01 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0bc…268fbacked Yes | 46c | 137.45$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1214…ebecbacked Yes | 48c | 125.91$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.44 | 49 | 18.4%9 W · 40 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeda5…414fbacked Yes | 9c | 116.83$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.42 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.26per pick | 40cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x30f6…004fbacked Yes | 67c | 111.81$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.06 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | +5.1wins | +0.14per pick | 44cpaid | +40.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x59e4…c67bbacked No | 53c | 108.57$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 63 | 30.2%19 W · 44 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 17c | 106.67$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.13 | 268 | 6.3%17 W · 251 L | -13.5wins | -0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -53%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x29e0…9a86backed Yes | 44c | 103.59$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41c6…4577backed Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfff1…5e20backed Yes | 34c | 100$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc31a…94f7backed Yes | 61c | 100$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f4e…5f09backed Yes | 46c | 100$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3ff…ec82backed Yes | 46c | 100$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc03f…249dbacked Yes | 46c | 100$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 51 | 29.4%15 W · 36 L | -4.7wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd064…2704backed Yes | 28c | 99.88$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.96 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6020…99f9backed No | 60c | 99.6$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.67 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb78d…835dbacked No | 53c | 95.3$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.79 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +68.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70cd…4694backed Yes | 46c | 86$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.56 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x66d9…bef3backed No | 56c | 80.21$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.29 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +76.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee31…badebacked No | 73c | 68.26$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.24 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +36.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 59c | 60$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.6 | 672 | 32%215 W · 457 L | +14.4wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -30%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 76c | 60$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.6 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | +2.8wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbf29…3f46backed No | 70c | 58.78$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.82 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -3.9wins | -0.18per pick | 49cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 25c | 54.23$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.47 | 69 | 17.4%12 W · 57 L | -7.5wins | -0.11per pick | 28cpaid | -61.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3f…f038backed No | 49c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e81…864bbacked Yes | 66c | 50$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -23%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4125…868cbacked Yes | 61c | 50$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x31c2…f1d3backed Yes | 48c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x103d…b3b2backed Yes | 46c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -67.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa598…2ff3backed Yes | 48c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.1wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -62.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xafa4…0dfebacked Yes | 65c | 50$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x494e…fb0bbacked Yes | 45c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed Yes | 32c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.67 | 133 | 33.1%44 W · 89 L | -10.3wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2b0f…f799backed Yes | 50c | 38$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a0f…7d85backed No | 53c | 35.96$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5eb1…702dbacked No | 53c | 35.96$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.9 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +65.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5fdf…7123backed Yes | 64c | 29.38$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Michael" score at least 40 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?this page
- Will "Michael" score at least 25 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?Yes won
- Will "Michael" score at least 30 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?Yes won
- Will "Michael" score at least 35 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?Yes won
- Will "Michael" score at least 45 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.