Commodities · resolved market
Will 100 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 22-June 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3dfd9666b92b03c036790164dda5209e94c7d9ef09ca3939d44d313f27430893
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $49,490
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $51,593
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $49,490 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 91 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 78c | 5,197$4,053 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,143.54 | 930 | 40.3%375 W · 555 L | -67.5wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x31a5…b589backed No | 1c | 3,074$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.7 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.1wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -71.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…423abacked No | 9c | 2,238$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.41 | 90 | 38.9%35 W · 55 L | +5.8wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x328d…f7a9backed Yes | 71c | 2,215$1,567 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$647.85 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x479d…d469backed Yes | 78c | 1,908$1,496 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$411.69 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.28per pick | 55cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 17c | 1,831$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305.44 | 308 | 39.6%122 W · 186 L | -17.4wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2eae…a25fbacked No | 9c | 1,650$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.44 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -74%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 13c | 1,622$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.47 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -1.9wins | -0.10per pick | 36cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked No | 3c | 1,500$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 120 | 11.7%14 W · 106 L | +7.5wins | +0.06per pick | 5cpaid | +178.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5207…686bbacked No | 26c | 1,493$384 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$384.01 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fa…aeecbacked No | 1c | 999.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.14 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7555…7822backed Yes | 70c | 851.81$596 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255.54 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff52…4546backed No | 30c | 850$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.5 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | +4.8wins | +0.14per pick | 41cpaid | +36.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd4ab…8253backed No | 30c | 829.01$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.27per pick | 59cpaid | +39.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd426…334abacked Yes | 63c | 746.97$471 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276.38 | 97 | 45.4%44 W · 53 L | +5.9wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked No | 9c | 746.51$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.48 | 273 | 22%60 W · 213 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 4c | 563.84$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.71 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked No | 4c | 500$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 81 | 2.5%2 W · 79 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 21c | 477.39$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.92 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x511f…cbe1backed No | 15c | 438$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.59 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 12c | 430.88$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.45 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 14c | 388.49$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.16 | 97 | 41.2%40 W · 57 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -10%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcacc…2eacbacked Yes | 57c | 379.44$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.87 | 56 | 32.1%18 W · 38 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 27cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6ac…c1fbbacked No | 37c | 373.64$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.57 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x151c…87b2backed No | 6c | 300$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.2 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25b2…4edbbacked Yes | 63c | 284.21$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.71 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +68.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c4…395dbacked Yes | 66c | 208$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.72 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +5.2wins | +0.17per pick | 46cpaid | +41.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 29c | 205$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.44 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x49bb…aaf9backed No | 26c | 200$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc327…31f5backed No | 22c | 180$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.6 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +3.8wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +38.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x74cb…ae6dbacked No | 29c | 173.39$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.56 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x077c…8b1fbacked No | 31c | 160$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.4 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0354…2913backed Yes | 77c | 151.5$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.85 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 22c | 150$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.25 | 43 | 34.9%15 W · 28 L | -3.3wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6dd9…bfe8backed Yes | 65c | 149.99$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.5 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -1.6wins | -0.11per pick | 38cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 70c | 144$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.59 | 1,045 | 34.6%362 W · 683 L | -93.1wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1075…19c1backed No | 13c | 140$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 34 | 14.7%5 W · 29 L | -3.4wins | -0.10per pick | 25cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xded8…d5ebbacked No | 21c | 110$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.25 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac76…9359backed Yes | 68c | 104.16$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.33 | 41 | 68.3%28 W · 13 L | +5.5wins | +0.13per pick | 55cpaid | +33.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.08 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc23…5a3dbacked No | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9687…1b7cbacked Yes | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.33 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcc…701bbacked No | 29c | 99.3$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.49 | 74 | 55.4%41 W · 33 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 24c | 91$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.81 | 45 | 53.3%24 W · 21 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed Yes | 70c | 80.43$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.13 | 55 | 43.6%24 W · 31 L | -4.3wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x27ab…e521backed No | 14c | 80.02$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.91 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +33%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x726a…200cbacked No | 22c | 75.13$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.8wins | -0.11per pick | 42cpaid | -53.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84c3…35d4backed No | 32c | 72$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.04 | 69 | 33.3%23 W · 46 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f2a…3706backed No | 28c | 70.59$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.77 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 72c | 69.24$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.09 | 195 | 35.4%69 W · 126 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1183…330bbacked Yes | 73c | 68.49$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.49 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf3…b38abacked No | 29c | 62$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +43.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbf0…9180backed No | 29c | 62$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +51.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa552…3306backed No | 29c | 62$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6423…8317backed Yes | 62c | 54.99$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +370.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4907…cdc2backed No | 29c | 54.85$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +2.9wins | +0.19per pick | 28cpaid | +133.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x18dc…5e90backed No | 37c | 53.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.74 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +51.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb11…0d5ebacked No | 30c | 52.53$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.76 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.16per pick | 62cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe1a9…339ebacked No | 27c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 30 | 26.7%8 W · 22 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba8f…ad42backed Yes | 73c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x095b…8a05backed No | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -52.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2818…f033backed Yes | 57c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.5 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdba1…8239backed Yes | 78c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +3.6wins | +0.16per pick | 43cpaid | +19%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x05d4…61dcbacked Yes | 75c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +126.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49f3…e7c7backed Yes | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2277…6604backed Yes | 71c | 48$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.92 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.26per pick | 49cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 73c | 44.8$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.1 | 353 | 34%120 W · 233 L | -9.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc05…9a76backed No | 27c | 43.06$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.46 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.15per pick | 45cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa4e0…6392backed Yes | 70c | 42.86$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.86 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf48c…8ec6backed No | 30c | 42$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57a8…2fffbacked No | 30c | 42$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bb0…2b36backed No | 30c | 42$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83fa…d3fbbacked No | 30c | 42$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.12per pick | 40cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1585…025abacked No | 30c | 42$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa74b…3241backed No | 30c | 42$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe518…f0fcbacked No | 30c | 42$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74a4…62ddbacked No | 55c | 39.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.5wins | -0.31per pick | 44cpaid | -74.8%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed Yes | 65c | 39.81$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.75 | 59 | 42.4%25 W · 34 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x168f…9e00backed No | 27c | 38.49$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.39 | 131 | 31.3%41 W · 90 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a52…a10dbacked No | 35c | 35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x154e…911fbacked Yes | 66c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 39 | 64.1%25 W · 14 L | +4.9wins | +0.13per pick | 52cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x960a…1b17backed Yes | 57c | 29.85$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.84 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2c5…91d7backed No | 43c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe3c8…0af5backed Yes | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe2d7…9fbabacked Yes | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x63e0…4ca5backed Yes | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -2.7wins | -0.19per pick | 55cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…6881backed Yes | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 72 | 43.1%31 W · 41 L | -12.9wins | -0.18per pick | 61cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x09d2…a3acbacked Yes | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec49…5975backed Yes | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed Yes | 78c | 17.13$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.77 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea4b…eb8cbacked Yes | 77c | 15.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.68 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 100 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 22-June 28?this page
- Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 22-June 28?No won
- Will 50-74 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 22-June 28?No won
- Will 75-99 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 22-June 28?No won
- Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 22-June 28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.