Tweets · resolved market
Will NYC Mayor post 40-59 posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe00fbbd6f171d3f7ee38e98fb0435dbce2f74860ac6a7ae4e78362824a23faae
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,530
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,476
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,530 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfd5c…6d2abacked No | 20c | 483.18$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.89 | 625 | 39.5%247 W · 378 L | +48.1wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x564f…7026backed Yes | 51c | 402.59$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.02 | 312 | 42.9%134 W · 178 L | +21.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8b11…5a66backed No | 23c | 293.59$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.12 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +1.9wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x40de…66bdbacked Yes | 79c | 223.41$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.83 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked No | 11c | 168.96$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.02 | 62 | 16.1%10 W · 52 L | -4.7wins | -0.08per pick | 24cpaid | -66.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5937…2100backed Yes | 78c | 135.86$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.24 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4616…a910backed No | 58c | 120.59$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 336 | 70.2%236 W · 100 L | +22.5wins | +0.07per pick | 64cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6136…64f8backed No | 27c | 112$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 43 | 27.9%12 W · 31 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 76c | 108$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.16 | 797 | 35.9%286 W · 511 L | -34.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc23…5a3dbacked No | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 21c | 90$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 309 | 55%170 W · 139 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 23c | 80$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 81 | 48.1%39 W · 42 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 23c | 70$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.1 | 388 | 48.5%188 W · 200 L | +16.2wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 19c | 62.35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.85 | 340 | 39.7%135 W · 205 L | -12.6wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x095b…8a05backed No | 61c | 62$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.82 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | -3.9wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 21c | 59.97$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.79 | 276 | 47.8%132 W · 144 L | +10.1wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 77c | 54$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.42 | 169 | 45%76 W · 93 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcc…701bbacked No | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 110 | 50%55 W · 55 L | +7.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x25f4…f88ebacked No | 26c | 49.37$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.89 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -3.5wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -62.5%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6cdb…8a82backed No | 33c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.31 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -4.3wins | -0.19per pick | 49cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9631…a38cbacked Yes | 70c | 33$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 100 | 48%48 W · 52 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed Yes | 75c | 26.61$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.72 | 116 | 33.6%39 W · 77 L | -7.4wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed Yes | 69c | 26$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.06 | 116 | 43.1%50 W · 66 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0739…aba8backed Yes | 77c | 23.88$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.49 | 75 | 40%30 W · 45 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe02d…bcffbacked No | 58c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 41cpaid | +117.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c90…17efbacked Yes | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +2.6wins | +0.24per pick | 58cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0855…ae26backed No | 61c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…6b2bbacked No | 62c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec47…0c22backed Yes | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +93.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a69…d2debacked Yes | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7546…1293backed Yes | 75c | 15.94$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.98 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 71cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd9f…a686backed Yes | 73c | 15.07$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.07 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 73cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed Yes | 80c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3 | 107 | 38.3%41 W · 66 L | -4.3wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will NYC Mayor post 40-59 posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026?this page
- Will NYC Mayor post 20-39 posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026?No won
- Will NYC Mayor post 60-79 posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.