Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcbb87746f0acd2dbe729d192df69cae9fd8d9bf77056974f693094630e24c095
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $149,571
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $112,304
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $149,571 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x74ff…be5bbacked Yes | 4c | 8,038$303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$302.57 | 1,001 | 10.5%105 W · 896 L | -30.9wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04a2…e16cbacked Yes | 5c | 5,231$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268.73 | 638 | 21.5%137 W · 501 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2924…dcdebacked Yes | 1c | 5,130$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.15 | 212 | 22.2%47 W · 165 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b05…8983backed Yes | 0c | 5,000$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 124 | 21.8%27 W · 97 L | +11.8wins | +0.10per pick | 12cpaid | +49.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd13d…a958backed Yes | 4c | 4,716$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.08 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe089…ad3abacked Yes | 3c | 4,545$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.5 | 183 | 4.4%8 W · 175 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | +235.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x849c…4009backed Yes | 4c | 4,364$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.93 | 1,782 | 7.4%132 W · 1,650 L | -23.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17f1…0528backed Yes | 2c | 4,300$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 514 | 10.5%54 W · 460 L | +17.3wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed41…38afbacked Yes | 1c | 3,474$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.55 | 128 | 25.8%33 W · 95 L | +7.1wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | +50.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x12ed…c9b4backed Yes | 18c | 3,067$540 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$540.18 | 535 | 22.6%121 W · 414 L | -19.4wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb56b…28dbbacked Yes | 6c | 2,397$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 82 | 19.5%16 W · 66 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01a4…4967backed Yes | 12c | 2,321$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$289.9 | 160 | 56.9%91 W · 69 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77c8…bc8cbacked Yes | 5c | 2,243$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.55 | 634 | 14.8%94 W · 540 L | -1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbcb…bb5dbacked Yes | 2c | 1,664$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.07 | 223 | 25.1%56 W · 167 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacfe…b2fabacked Yes | 5c | 1,601$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.88 | 58 | 25.9%15 W · 43 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…d801backed Yes | 16c | 1,506$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.13 | 230 | 19.1%44 W · 186 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x736e…ae9cbacked Yes | 17c | 1,486$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -61%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68ff…ec42backed Yes | 1c | 1,476$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.37 | 90 | 18.9%17 W · 73 L | +3.9wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x146d…17c7backed Yes | 3c | 1,361$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.12 | 1,196 | 8.7%104 W · 1,092 L | +31.0wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 14c | 1,329$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.77 | 2,552 | 13.1%335 W · 2,217 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0cc…f09bbacked Yes | 7c | 1,292$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 140 | 37.1%52 W · 88 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3cca…c831backed Yes | 16c | 1,212$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197 | 465 | 21.3%99 W · 366 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…4006backed Yes | 3c | 1,191$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.06 | 1,045 | 13.6%142 W · 903 L | +37.8wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8e44…a6bebacked Yes | 4c | 1,138$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.71 | 83 | 21.7%18 W · 65 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeab1…8121backed Yes | 4c | 1,128$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.18 | 488 | 19.3%94 W · 394 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9696…0861backed Yes | 10c | 1,091$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.71 | 880 | 18.6%164 W · 716 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18a0…dea8backed Yes | 12c | 1,085$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.88 | 576 | 21.2%122 W · 454 L | +9.9wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79cb…331ebacked Yes | 4c | 1,073$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.94 | 456 | 8.3%38 W · 418 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked Yes | 1c | 1,047$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.54 | 1,625 | 1.9%31 W · 1,594 L | +14.5wins | +0.01per pick | 1cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc36…8542backed Yes | 6c | 1,011$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.81 | 232 | 22.4%52 W · 180 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98d6…51dcbacked Yes | 18c | 959.29$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.36 | 215 | 21.9%47 W · 168 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2d7…e3b7backed Yes | 17c | 959$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.24 | 316 | 24.7%78 W · 238 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1c3…73fdbacked Yes | 4c | 958.48$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.74 | 68 | 32.4%22 W · 46 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf142…2f8abacked Yes | 4c | 833.08$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.69 | 70 | 42.9%30 W · 40 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c0…d656backed Yes | 8c | 731.26$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.26 | 880 | 17.3%152 W · 728 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6be9…3493backed Yes | 2c | 600$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.54 | 1,067 | 8.3%89 W · 978 L | +28.9wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc99e…3853backed Yes | 9c | 600$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 197 | 22.8%45 W · 152 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 6c | 590.02$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.5 | 491 | 6.7%33 W · 458 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x071d…07efbacked Yes | 4c | 572.72$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.71 | 1,038 | 11.1%115 W · 923 L | +4.7wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b30…068abacked Yes | 6c | 555.19$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.59 | 329 | 17%56 W · 273 L | +13.7wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…5d95backed Yes | 3c | 535.39$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.67 | 122 | 16.4%20 W · 102 L | +9.3wins | +0.08per pick | 9cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x732f…201ebacked Yes | 7c | 525.77$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.97 | 397 | 23.2%92 W · 305 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb2b…cadfbacked Yes | 3c | 499.65$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.52 | 207 | 23.7%49 W · 158 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…0d4ebacked Yes | 2c | 471.81$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.43 | 140 | 50%70 W · 70 L | +8.7wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes | 3c | 445.45$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.33 | 407 | 19.7%80 W · 327 L | -18.4wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8c8e…5610backed Yes | 16c | 441.33$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.49 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd97f…7813backed Yes | 17c | 351.7$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.79 | 159 | 28.3%45 W · 114 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf456…91dabacked Yes | 4c | 350$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x813e…5d51backed Yes | 4c | 309.02$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.16 | 313 | 4.8%15 W · 298 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c17…ab38backed Yes | 14c | 299.73$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.09 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd70…d270backed Yes | 4c | 255.47$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.79 | 751 | 22.2%167 W · 584 L | +15.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3a9…ab36backed Yes | 11c | 227.27$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +2.0wins | +0.12per pick | 35cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0199…5ffbbacked Yes | 12c | 160.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a6…9fc1backed Yes | 13c | 117.22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 40 | 30%12 W · 28 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d06…b2eabacked Yes | 22c | 114.06$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 67 | 44.8%30 W · 37 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -16%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf61f…1cf3backed Yes | 12c | 108.89$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.49 | 129 | 19.4%25 W · 104 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb5a…1537backed Yes | 16c | 103.21$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.17 | 159 | 18.9%30 W · 129 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e23…49a5backed Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1851…ae47backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 43 | 14%6 W · 37 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 11cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x095b…8a05backed Yes | 20c | 94.08$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.82 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | -3.9wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3758…5c70backed No | 80c | 77.81$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.56 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 19c | 72.36$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.03 | 340 | 39.7%135 W · 205 L | -12.6wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3941…c514backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.13 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7633…30febacked Yes | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.65 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +46.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026?this page
- Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026?Yes won
- Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.