Movies · resolved market
Will "Supergirl" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 35m and 39m?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1924e5b2ffcc2f583b9a5bce87006270ea702ac6517fb85016633145b5897581
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,692
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,561
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,692 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6018…170cbacked Yes | 69c | 720$494 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.39 | 136 | 35.3%48 W · 88 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed No | 20c | 694.12$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.82 | 69 | 17.4%12 W · 57 L | -7.5wins | -0.11per pick | 28cpaid | -61.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6dd9…1024backed Yes | 74c | 660.9$487 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.2 | 52 | 34.6%18 W · 34 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5095…93eebacked Yes | 67c | 648.16$432 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.57 | 296 | 42.6%126 W · 170 L | +22.9wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe904…2d9fbacked Yes | 45c | 643.42$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$353.75 | 151 | 49%74 W · 77 L | +10.6wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 28c | 562.41$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.12 | 167 | 37.1%62 W · 105 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 67c | 526.24$352 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.18 | 473 | 28.3%134 W · 339 L | -32.8wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae0…7483backed No | 26c | 523.77$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.95 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdaad…69ccbacked No | 27c | 406.28$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.09 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +2.0wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0113…6f26backed Yes | 70c | 402.75$284 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.19 | 58 | 48.3%28 W · 30 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb777…e4e0backed No | 65c | 383.24$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.55 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf021…df56backed Yes | 80c | 380$304 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76 | 105 | 49.5%52 W · 53 L | +6.5wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9214…a803backed Yes | 80c | 375$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b5d…fbb6backed Yes | 33c | 302.1$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.1 | 49 | 36.7%18 W · 31 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 37c | 267$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.17 | 124 | 42.7%53 W · 71 L | -4.6wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 21c | 263.4$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.63 | 68 | 33.8%23 W · 45 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3054…1282backed No | 19c | 258.37$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x511f…cbe1backed No | 29c | 222.98$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.11 | 103 | 39.8%41 W · 62 L | -5.7wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9199…dd2dbacked Yes | 15c | 211.15$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.18 | 327 | 39.1%128 W · 199 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 24c | 211$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.23 | 99 | 51.5%51 W · 48 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2892…71ddbacked Yes | 43c | 202.14$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.14 | 195 | 32.8%64 W · 131 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x758b…0a1cbacked No | 58c | 199.25$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.12 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 41c | 184$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.21 | 870 | 33.3%290 W · 580 L | -77.0wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 26c | 181.19$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.32 | 82 | 25.6%21 W · 61 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 61c | 172.7$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.49 | 67 | 47.8%32 W · 35 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 27c | 169.08$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.31 | 130 | 34.6%45 W · 85 L | -8.2wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe00a…330ebacked Yes | 65c | 152.69$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.69 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc05…9a76backed No | 56c | 148.71$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.96 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | -4.7wins | -0.14per pick | 55cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x42e6…8e78backed Yes | 54c | 146.13$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.06 | 78 | 60.3%47 W · 31 L | +7.1wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbe78…c533backed Yes | 55c | 121.37$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.62 | 297 | 35.7%106 W · 191 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 37c | 120$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.4 | 106 | 45.3%48 W · 58 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcc…701bbacked Yes | 46c | 119.09$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.1 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcffe…146dbacked Yes | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.6 | 129 | 36.4%47 W · 82 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 75 | 37.3%28 W · 47 L | -5.1wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 57c | 100$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 53 | 62.3%33 W · 20 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x516d…03e5backed Yes | 80c | 95$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 41 | 34.1%14 W · 27 L | -5.8wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4843…9a9ebacked Yes | 58c | 94.34$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.64 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 43c | 90.74$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.11 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c73…e448backed Yes | 34c | 88$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.34 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.66per pick | 34cpaid | +196.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked No | 31c | 84.85$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.3 | 119 | 24.4%29 W · 90 L | -4.5wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 30c | 83.19$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.84 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 27c | 82.95$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.01 | 1,394 | 8%111 W · 1,283 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 40c | 80$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 231 | 30.3%70 W · 161 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 34c | 75.24$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.58 | 108 | 30.6%33 W · 75 L | -13.9wins | -0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 26c | 75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 64 | 46.9%30 W · 34 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15e1…1b3dbacked No | 58c | 70$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.6 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 54c | 68.97$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.91 | 53 | 39.6%21 W · 32 L | -6.8wins | -0.13per pick | 52cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5edc…bbadbacked No | 48c | 59.28$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.64 | 45 | 60%27 W · 18 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3489…7fffbacked Yes | 77c | 55.65$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.08 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 62c | 55.61$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.48 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -28%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x25e5…d09cbacked Yes | 55c | 55.06$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.78 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8144…8472backed Yes | 74c | 54$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.04 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -2.6wins | -0.23per pick | 42cpaid | -69.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4e67…2b1fbacked Yes | 52c | 51.12$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.33 | 59 | 52.5%31 W · 28 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x54d1…13f4backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1a9…339ebacked No | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x63d7…7659backed No | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x734b…2a2cbacked Yes | 49c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc798…6254backed No | 44c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x095b…8a05backed Yes | 34c | 50$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb70b…6087backed Yes | 50c | 43.82$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.91 | 116 | 33.6%39 W · 77 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a91…3428backed No | 67c | 31.45$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.07 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 67cpaid | -11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 63c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 86 | 53.5%46 W · 40 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x239f…8b82backed No | 44c | 27.37$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.04 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -2.0wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb410…56b7backed No | 59c | 25.73$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9687…1b7cbacked Yes | 59c | 23$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Supergirl" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 35m and 39m?this page
- Will "Supergirl" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 39m and 43m?No won
- Will "Supergirl" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 43m and 47m?No won
- Will "Supergirl" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 47m?No won
- Will "Supergirl" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 35m?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.