Movies · resolved market
Will "Supergirl" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 39m and 43m?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdd93991d8942e1260966227130f4357202dcd29d7dddab109b6955aeea580633
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,694
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,741
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,694 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x88ee…c234backed Yes | 25c | 3,011$753 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$752.69 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x783b…2345backed Yes | 4c | 2,274$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.77 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -74.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4da7…355ebacked Yes | 16c | 2,000$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320 | 75 | 38.7%29 W · 46 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5095…93eebacked No | 75c | 1,402$1,051 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$350.56 | 296 | 42.6%126 W · 170 L | +22.9wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf7bb…a9f7backed No | 76c | 700$532 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168 | 82 | 47.6%39 W · 43 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6018…170cbacked Yes | 29c | 672.55$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.26 | 136 | 35.3%48 W · 88 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdaad…69ccbacked Yes | 18c | 633.11$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.93 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +2.0wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8247…d8ccbacked Yes | 3c | 632.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.07 | 160 | 40%64 W · 96 L | +8.2wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 30c | 619$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.18 | 473 | 28.3%134 W · 339 L | -32.8wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe562…4fa9backed Yes | 23c | 592.33$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.66 | 264 | 31.1%82 W · 182 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb70b…6087backed Yes | 28c | 561.1$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.71 | 116 | 33.6%39 W · 77 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb355…f149backed No | 75c | 400$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.23per pick | 60cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 77c | 359.96$276 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.26 | 870 | 33.3%290 W · 580 L | -77.0wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbe78…c533backed Yes | 20c | 340.76$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.15 | 297 | 35.7%106 W · 191 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b5d…fbb6backed Yes | 26c | 270.7$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.45 | 49 | 36.7%18 W · 31 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dd9…1024backed Yes | 29c | 267.49$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.57 | 52 | 34.6%18 W · 34 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x056f…e487backed Yes | 19c | 260.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 120 | 30%36 W · 84 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -20%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 70c | 256$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.86 | 124 | 42.7%53 W · 71 L | -4.6wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4041…6f52backed Yes | 21c | 254.55$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.1 | 170 | 17.1%29 W · 141 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe904…2d9fbacked Yes | 24c | 218.59$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.46 | 151 | 49%74 W · 77 L | +10.6wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeb5f…c111backed Yes | 24c | 210$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.4 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -41.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf021…df56backed Yes | 41c | 200$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82 | 105 | 49.5%52 W · 53 L | +6.5wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 75c | 200$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 53 | 62.3%33 W · 20 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 76c | 194.28$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.89 | 220 | 30.5%67 W · 153 L | -13.6wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 74c | 172.7$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.98 | 67 | 47.8%32 W · 35 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 76c | 167.16$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.52 | 82 | 25.6%21 W · 61 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 78c | 162$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.92 | 99 | 51.5%51 W · 48 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57d4…ac0dbacked Yes | 16c | 140.64$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 170 | 41.8%71 W · 99 L | +10.8wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0ec4…f4a4backed No | 76c | 130$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.2 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -25%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x511f…cbe1backed No | 77c | 126.6$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.33 | 103 | 39.8%41 W · 62 L | -5.7wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2892…71ddbacked Yes | 25c | 120$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 195 | 32.8%64 W · 131 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2482…67b1backed Yes | 20c | 113.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.74 | 90 | 34.4%31 W · 59 L | +3.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad70…4ccfbacked Yes | 25c | 110$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.7 | 108 | 14.8%16 W · 92 L | -4.8wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc05…9a76backed No | 62c | 108.67$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.57 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | -4.7wins | -0.14per pick | 55cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcffe…146dbacked Yes | 17c | 99.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 129 | 36.4%47 W · 82 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 35c | 94.16$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.78 | 1,394 | 8%111 W · 1,283 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 65c | 93.01$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.92 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | +2.4wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2330…ed99backed Yes | 20c | 91.92$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.05 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +3.3wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 27c | 77.43$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.63 | 1,218 | 17.8%217 W · 1,001 L | -124.0wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x87e8…b760backed Yes | 40c | 75.37$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 61 | 37.7%23 W · 38 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x54d1…13f4backed Yes | 20c | 71.68$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.34 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0041…967cbacked No | 74c | 70$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.3 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.2wins | -0.24per pick | 47cpaid | -68.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 74c | 67$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.42 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8144…8472backed Yes | 21c | 60$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -2.6wins | -0.23per pick | 42cpaid | -69.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5edc…bbadbacked No | 76c | 55.01$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.4 | 45 | 60%27 W · 18 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4843…9a9ebacked Yes | 37c | 55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.38 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40c2…b2fcbacked No | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 84 | 61.9%52 W · 32 L | +7.5wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbe74…a70ebacked Yes | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 46 | 37%17 W · 29 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfec1…b807backed Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a5b…acf6backed Yes | 26c | 47.38$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked Yes | 24c | 44.3$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.68 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -28%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked Yes | 39c | 43.66$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.93 | 53 | 39.6%21 W · 32 L | -6.8wins | -0.13per pick | 52cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2d62…0a41backed No | 80c | 34.71$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.94 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 79c | 32$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.63 | 111 | 84.7%94 W · 17 L | +11.3wins | +0.10per pick | 74cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd10d…8f16backed Yes | 37c | 31.38$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 73c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 64 | 46.9%30 W · 34 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 72c | 24.03$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.7 | 29 | 62.1%18 W · 11 L | +2.7wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x758b…0a1cbacked No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd20…6159backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.14per pick | 58cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x239f…8b82backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -2.0wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 69c | 19.23$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.01 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked No | 70c | 19.02$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.71 | 119 | 24.4%29 W · 90 L | -4.5wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39ca…7605backed No | 77c | 17.92$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.13 | 35 | 62.9%22 W · 13 L | +3.0wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Supergirl" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 39m and 43m?this page
- Will "Supergirl" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 35m and 39m?Yes won
- Will "Supergirl" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 43m and 47m?No won
- Will "Supergirl" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 47m?No won
- Will "Supergirl" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 35m?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.