AI · resolved market
Will the US government rescind its ban on all foreign use of Claude Fable 5 by June 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd271c2ad91fcb0e971021de385ae6c2e898cb4ac0b36ad4d5971d50eebc5c1b3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $244,656
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $223,311
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $244,656 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 318 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x24fb…973ebacked Yes | 71c | 19,660$14,021 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,639.36 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -2.8wins | -0.17per pick | 28cpaid | -83.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2b67…b814backed Yes | 17c | 16,297$2,808 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,488.44 | 37 | 24.3%9 W · 28 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x853c…bd03backed Yes | 67c | 7,795$5,206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,589.19 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30f9…fbfcbacked No | 11c | 7,021$780 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$780.04 | 243 | 15.2%37 W · 206 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x997d…decfbacked No | 61c | 6,475$3,934 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,934.07 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0482…6b0abacked Yes | 16c | 5,499$879 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,619.18 | 210 | 35.7%75 W · 135 L | +13.4wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fa…aeecbacked No | 1c | 4,536$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.51 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -84.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09e6…24a1backed Yes | 63c | 4,459$2,812 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,647.72 | 109 | 33.9%37 W · 72 L | +5.0wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e3d…8554backed Yes | 12c | 4,389$526 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,863.51 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +196.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x49df…96b7backed No | 66c | 3,933$2,611 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,611.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x233b…1f2cbacked Yes | 14c | 3,530$508 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,021.74 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbef0…86efbacked No | 54c | 3,154$1,707 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,707.21 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +60%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 17c | 3,133$526 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,607.02 | 144 | 21.5%31 W · 113 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88d9…2dd5backed Yes | 29c | 2,874$820 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,054.04 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd342…b414backed Yes | 21c | 2,426$519 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,906.64 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +133.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7365…64dabacked Yes | 27c | 2,308$626 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,681.59 | 275 | 36.4%100 W · 175 L | +7.7wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7bec…b4e2backed No | 76c | 2,287$1,732 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,732.17 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 16c | 2,154$341 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$341.29 | 207 | 31.9%66 W · 141 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb37a…f1b1backed No | 7c | 2,100$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.1 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x645a…fd84backed No | 64c | 2,053$1,321 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,321 | 56 | 44.6%25 W · 31 L | -7.2wins | -0.13per pick | 57cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2b…af20backed Yes | 40c | 2,000$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,199.72 | 114 | 25.4%29 W · 85 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed No | 10c | 1,980$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.98 | 55 | 10.9%6 W · 49 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa99…dbbfbacked Yes | 25c | 1,903$474 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,428.68 | 63 | 54%34 W · 29 L | +11.0wins | +0.17per pick | 37cpaid | +59.6%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xd2f3…e6a8backed No | 4c | 1,822$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.52 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb77…4e6bbacked No | 2c | 1,635$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.99 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -66%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 54c | 1,619$874 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$745.05 | 98 | 39.8%39 W · 59 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde7b…5f4bbacked Yes | 52c | 1,606$840 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$765.16 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -27%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 7c | 1,571$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.49 | 178 | 24.2%43 W · 135 L | -12.4wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -56%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xefdd…8370backed No | 63c | 1,488$937 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$936.8 | 57 | 42.1%24 W · 33 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77a1…580bbacked No | 2c | 1,426$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.3 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e7e…8908backed No | 2c | 1,374$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d55…7cbabacked No | 1c | 1,260$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 21cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b9…e44ebacked Yes | 41c | 1,224$496 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$727.51 | 142 | 50%71 W · 71 L | +10.5wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +70.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…423abacked No | 14c | 1,201$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173 | 107 | 23.4%25 W · 82 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 20c | 1,199$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$963.4 | 415 | 7.2%30 W · 385 L | -26.1wins | -0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -69%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcaaf…8031backed Yes | 10c | 1,173$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,058.85 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 24cpaid | +154.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea9d…536abacked No | 4c | 1,108$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c4…395dbacked Yes | 41c | 1,045$428 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$616.55 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +2.3wins | +0.16per pick | 48cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked No | 36c | 1,029$375 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$375.09 | 40 | 12.5%5 W · 35 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb9e…11d4backed No | 59c | 923.12$541 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$541 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +29%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8abd…a185backed No | 73c | 889.61$650 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$650 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x88fa…a8c1backed Yes | 31c | 879.9$274 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$605.69 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6101…f85ebacked Yes | 53c | 876.34$461 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$415.41 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae7c…487ebacked Yes | 19c | 799.45$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$649.45 | 65 | 36.9%24 W · 41 L | +5.6wins | +0.09per pick | 28cpaid | +55.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ee…5d1fbacked No | 3c | 791.56$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.85 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc08…a25cbacked Yes | 57c | 775.02$439 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$336.51 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +227.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd2b…8e50backed Yes | 16c | 769.11$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$645.82 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | +28%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc83…bcd2backed Yes | 37c | 766.07$282 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$483.97 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +2.2wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe61e…803abacked No | 22c | 733.95$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.49 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2ca…5fb0backed Yes | 28c | 711.06$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$513.84 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8d5…8935backed Yes | 35c | 699.99$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$457 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6074…ebcdbacked No | 69c | 681$472 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$472.27 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4191…569fbacked No | 73c | 673.4$489 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$489.21 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -4.1wins | -0.34per pick | 51cpaid | -71.9%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc901…0c1dbacked No | 79c | 659.51$520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$520.46 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | -3.7wins | -0.10per pick | 55cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 69c | 658.98$458 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$457.99 | 116 | 36.2%42 W · 74 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51de…9e4abacked No | 68c | 627.36$424 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$423.81 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecc2…3eb6backed No | 71c | 606.85$432 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$432.38 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x880a…308ebacked No | 69c | 594.75$410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$410.17 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 45c | 573.27$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$312.82 | 150 | 47.3%71 W · 79 L | +6.5wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe7fe…24e5backed No | 54c | 541.99$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295.1 | 43 | 39.5%17 W · 26 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -20%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…6734backed Yes | 30c | 528$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$372.04 | 48 | 31.3%15 W · 33 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -25%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa80c…37bfbacked No | 2c | 526.32$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x54a7…881bbacked No | 47c | 521$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.03 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…e8f8backed No | 70c | 500.5$352 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$352.28 | 82 | 57.3%47 W · 35 L | +4.0wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8d…6724backed No | 66c | 500$332 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$332 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80cf…614dbacked Yes | 12c | 500$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$440 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +2.6wins | +0.43per pick | 23cpaid | +252.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4d93…c671backed No | 57c | 499.97$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$283.99 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x961a…73acbacked Yes | 13c | 493.92$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$430.44 | 46 | 41.3%19 W · 27 L | +3.6wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9de1…160ebacked No | 62c | 480.03$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f2a…3706backed No | 71c | 477.72$341 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340.94 | 49 | 38.8%19 W · 30 L | -4.4wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5999…ae94backed No | 63c | 468.24$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297.25 | 79 | 51.9%41 W · 38 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21bc…4681backed No | 70c | 464.5$324 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$323.72 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x56e7…7c0bbacked No | 69c | 446.13$307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeeb3…51c8backed No | 59c | 430$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.9 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -3.0wins | -0.30per pick | 50cpaid | -63.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed Yes | 14c | 423$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$363.78 | 60 | 40%24 W · 36 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf59…deb0backed No | 80c | 416.48$332 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$332.16 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 16c | 404.07$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$339.58 | 479 | 38%182 W · 297 L | -11.3wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe738…df65backed Yes | 43c | 400$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d1b…ffc0backed No | 60c | 400$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc03f…249dbacked Yes | 19c | 400$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$324 | 84 | 35.7%30 W · 54 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc40…56a3backed No | 79c | 400$314 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$314 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 64cpaid | -1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68c8…b100backed Yes | 48c | 391.93$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.93 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7243…8409backed No | 56c | 391.11$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.45 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe23d…311dbacked No | 45c | 379.99$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7cc…cb5dbacked No | 72c | 378.69$273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$272.66 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.12per pick | 21cpaid | -83.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea2e…1e57backed No | 7c | 361.09$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.99 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x758b…0a1cbacked Yes | 39c | 335.63$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.21 | 109 | 38.5%42 W · 67 L | -6.5wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8c0b…f0fbbacked Yes | 50c | 334.72$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.36 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.8wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +93.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x86c1…cacebacked No | 46c | 330.64$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9bae…5d34backed Yes | 66c | 329.82$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.41 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea8…9e5fbacked No | 62c | 328.19$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.48 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a2…54c2backed Yes | 17c | 324.89$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270.5 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x095b…8a05backed Yes | 19c | 314$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$254.17 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33c5…2230backed Yes | 32c | 310.51$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.51 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.12per pick | 33cpaid | +70%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x54d1…13f4backed Yes | 43c | 308.99$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.3 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.17per pick | 43cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc91b…93bdbacked Yes | 13c | 307.21$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$267.27 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | +3.9wins | +0.13per pick | 31cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf710…edc9backed Yes | 25c | 302.36$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.57 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +2.6wins | +0.10per pick | 36cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a71…78c9backed No | 63c | 300.07$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.61 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 42cpaid | -63.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc326…1db1backed Yes | 44c | 300$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167 | 258 | 37.6%97 W · 161 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dd9…1024backed Yes | 42c | 300$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the US government rescind its ban on all foreign use of Claude Fable 5 by June 30?this page
- Will the US government rescind its ban on all foreign use of Claude Fable 5 by June 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.