Weather · resolved market
Ebola case in the US by June 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0a632e4dc9cce43da54a282cb46784ee9a13b0e0825c831f4d122531143e8ace
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $328,219
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $309,813
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $328,219 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 469 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 76c | 28,019$21,399 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,619.55 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x44c1…ebc1backed Yes | 22c | 18,790$4,134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,134.13 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +2.9wins | +0.11per pick | 37cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcf6a…f9d0backed Yes | 20c | 18,540$3,676 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,675.91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e42…49edbacked No | 74c | 8,358$6,177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,180.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe3de…0876backed Yes | 28c | 8,165$2,250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,249.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc2f…c7bbbacked No | 68c | 7,238$4,910 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,327.81 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0baa…fe13backed Yes | 25c | 6,496$1,599 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,598.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ea7…bcd9backed Yes | 25c | 6,159$1,516 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,516.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fc6…7306backed Yes | 26c | 6,101$1,595 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,595.36 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52ca…523fbacked No | 79c | 5,811$4,602 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,208.79 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79d9…baecbacked No | 72c | 5,200$3,744 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,455.99 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e0f…9556backed Yes | 48c | 4,935$2,392 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,392.29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb51b…b4d9backed No | 77c | 4,373$3,386 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$986.16 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b67…b814backed Yes | 17c | 4,282$711 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$710.61 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.33per pick | 34cpaid | +56.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e55…e3e2backed Yes | 55c | 4,242$2,349 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,348.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0886…b3a6backed Yes | 27c | 4,218$1,121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,121.47 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e4f…4594backed Yes | 11c | 3,892$440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$440.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x506f…e8bbbacked No | 70c | 3,821$2,691 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,130.34 | 37 | 27%10 W · 27 L | -4.3wins | -0.12per pick | 39cpaid | -48.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x183a…d514backed Yes | 26c | 3,284$861 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$860.85 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x134a…9e42backed Yes | 24c | 3,273$797 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$796.97 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 5c | 3,142$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.32 | 36 | 5.6%2 W · 34 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 6cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60a9…5a71backed No | 78c | 3,039$2,358 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$680.92 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xceee…d39ebacked No | 74c | 3,000$2,212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$787.86 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5d…c928backed Yes | 5c | 2,913$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6974…6256backed No | 75c | 2,785$2,089 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$696.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd5c…8408backed No | 79c | 2,660$2,101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$558.22 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 33c | 2,606$853 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$852.99 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1ff…55bdbacked Yes | 31c | 2,458$754 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$753.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06da…f2edbacked Yes | 23c | 2,355$540 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$540.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x420e…e3c9backed No | 75c | 2,280$1,700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$579.99 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 77cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 24c | 2,216$527 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$526.75 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa99…dbbfbacked Yes | 29c | 2,206$633 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$632.7 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +79.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No | 43c | 2,093$907 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,185.9 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2525…b919backed No | 63c | 1,855$1,176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$678.7 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | +2.5wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2b…af20backed No | 68c | 1,766$1,197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$568.43 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -2.6wins | -0.20per pick | 36cpaid | -73%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x18e1…cf01backed Yes | 15c | 1,755$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268.73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefee…1c08backed Yes | 22c | 1,696$373 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$373.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf840…cc26backed No | 73c | 1,656$1,209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$447.19 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ac…c5d1backed Yes | 21c | 1,651$354 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$354.29 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc6…1fc1backed No | 78c | 1,650$1,281 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$368.98 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf57a…72a5backed No | 66c | 1,500$990 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$510 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x40cf…d21dbacked No | 68c | 1,500$1,015 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$484.99 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x91ba…c285backed Yes | 35c | 1,494$522 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$522.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4344…f90dbacked Yes | 2c | 1,448$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8532…738bbacked Yes | 6c | 1,407$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57dc…414bbacked Yes | 45c | 1,393$624 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$623.83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes | 5c | 1,361$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.61 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -89.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x14d7…db87backed No | 74c | 1,351$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$351.35 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x233b…1f2cbacked Yes | 44c | 1,343$596 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$596.13 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.23per pick | 60cpaid | -48.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3143…81b1backed No | 76c | 1,326$1,010 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$316.48 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe740…f9e3backed Yes | 23c | 1,321$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 20c | 1,316$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258.81 | 1,088 | 55.5%604 W · 484 L | -27.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04cc…48acbacked No | 80c | 1,249$999 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250.64 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cca…c831backed No | 73c | 1,239$900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$338.97 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe605…ac5fbacked Yes | 24c | 1,190$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$287.75 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | -4.8wins | -0.21per pick | 38cpaid | -54.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6e49…f1afbacked Yes | 25c | 1,165$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$287.77 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xafd6…743ebacked Yes | 25c | 1,163$293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$293.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x708d…ea78backed No | 58c | 1,133$652 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$480.7 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +87.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcdb1…276cbacked Yes | 36c | 1,120$398 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$398.04 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 40cpaid | +151.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x645a…fd84backed No | 74c | 1,116$823 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$293.19 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5dc…35f9backed No | 78c | 1,115$870 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.4 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x70ff…b65fbacked Yes | 17c | 1,091$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.6 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.22per pick | 18cpaid | +306.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf524…8178backed Yes | 7c | 1,043$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.96 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +91.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…468fbacked No | 79c | 1,032$820 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.94 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -2.5wins | -0.15per pick | 56cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcb14…5358backed No | 78c | 1,000$781 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7609…6c4ebacked No | 80c | 1,000$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4158…ce9fbacked Yes | 4c | 1,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +2.2wins | +0.44per pick | 36cpaid | +104.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…fa3fbacked Yes | 45c | 1,000$448 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$448.21 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…b919backed Yes | 4c | 1,000$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadc2…7374backed Yes | 14c | 999.99$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed No | 69c | 980.68$673 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$307.85 | 640 | 21.7%139 W · 501 L | -23.6wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc6dd…4b9fbacked No | 74c | 961.51$716 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.69 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed No | 70c | 931$656 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$274.99 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +41.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c97…fb0cbacked Yes | 23c | 926.3$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 17c | 905.66$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.44 | 481 | 49.5%238 W · 243 L | -26.0wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc040…beacbacked Yes | 12c | 893$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.16 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -48.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x955c…990fbacked No | 79c | 861.93$684 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.85 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x048a…9be4backed No | 75c | 809.15$609 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.39 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…1a00backed Yes | 17c | 806$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.02 | 361 | 50.4%182 W · 179 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86e9…4cdfbacked Yes | 77c | 781.82$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd725…e66ebacked Yes | 12c | 762.24$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 7cpaid | +351%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…c4ddbacked Yes | 31c | 741.1$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fec…05a6backed No | 76c | 730.27$553 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.54 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1df…309dbacked No | 71c | 709.33$506 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.54 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 10c | 658$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.19 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf0…9ef6backed Yes | 32c | 655.84$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.87 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3000…9eb1backed No | 66c | 646.22$427 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.61 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -3.4wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb74f…acbbbacked Yes | 31c | 646.13$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3a5…5f3cbacked No | 77c | 636.92$491 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.21 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 30c | 632.36$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.39 | 382 | 43.2%165 W · 217 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b72…6dbebacked Yes | 36c | 626.08$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.65 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed Yes | 22c | 608.09$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.67 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30db…33c0backed Yes | 5c | 600$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4fff…be78backed No | 65c | 597.65$388 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.18 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c99…6efbbacked No | 78c | 577.91$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.91 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x69ad…365abacked Yes | 23c | 571.97$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3773…f0ddbacked No | 73c | 569$413 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.52 | 37 | 56.8%21 W · 16 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e5…2d3abacked Yes | 18c | 557.78$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 26cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x736f…deaabacked Yes | 22c | 557.09$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.83 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53d6…055abacked No | 77c | 550.09$424 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.52 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.