Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 29°C on March 12?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3b61d2248fc21d140e67e43004b6a998e38d5a2a96e4d29447c94f979e340221
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,500
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,500 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 6c | 1,345$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.41 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 20c | 453$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.22 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca1…17e5backed Yes | 18c | 372.32$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.02 | 153 | 28.1%43 W · 110 L | +10.0wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x98e9…8dbebacked Yes | 30c | 274.71$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.76 | 134 | 30.6%41 W · 93 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 21c | 255.7$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.78 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 79c | 200.81$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.14 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 10c | 199.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 18c | 199.08$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.23 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd8a…edf9backed Yes | 24c | 187.77$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.47 | 76 | 38.2%29 W · 47 L | -8.0wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 19c | 136.56$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.26 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 20c | 124.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5264…9a63backed Yes | 22c | 119.98$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 740 | 23.9%177 W · 563 L | +23.6wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09c5…9e8abacked Yes | 26c | 113.96$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.25 | 213 | 33.8%72 W · 141 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa67d…c6f9backed Yes | 24c | 109.31$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.61 | 250 | 29.2%73 W · 177 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 16c | 107.79$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.24 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x3a38…ada9backed Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 236 | 33.1%78 W · 158 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefae…3acebacked Yes | 19c | 99.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 268 | 27.2%73 W · 195 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac24…576ebacked Yes | 24c | 94.3$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.76 | 233 | 34.3%80 W · 153 L | -6.6wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1d9…5dc8backed Yes | 19c | 91.47$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.42 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +3.1wins | +0.16per pick | 42cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd98d…1179backed Yes | 23c | 90$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.15 | 232 | 31%72 W · 160 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 24c | 85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.3 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 14c | 78.95$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.97 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e3c…eba1backed No | 77c | 76.56$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.23 | 134 | 53.7%72 W · 62 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 18c | 74.23$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.14 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe712…9a10backed Yes | 25c | 73.27$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 868 | 47.7%414 W · 454 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 15c | 70.33$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.89 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb608…881ebacked Yes | 22c | 70$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 188 | 42.6%80 W · 108 L | +7.4wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb537…14ccbacked No | 78c | 64.08$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 414 | 60.1%249 W · 165 L | -21.5wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x387c…8622backed No | 80c | 62.86$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.86 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a42…8da8backed No | 78c | 54.26$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.14 | 388 | 40.7%158 W · 230 L | -14.9wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8ed7…bb28backed Yes | 23c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 128 | 28.1%36 W · 92 L | +8.5wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…ffe6backed No | 74c | 49.03$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.75 | 59 | 74.6%44 W · 15 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc437…0f42backed Yes | 22c | 49$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | -2.8wins | -0.10per pick | 37cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca85…fe6cbacked Yes | 25c | 48$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 222 | 36.5%81 W · 141 L | +10.1wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f9e…9ec0backed Yes | 24c | 44.14$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.62 | 90 | 46.7%42 W · 48 L | +5.7wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked No | 76c | 34.12$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.19 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 76c | 33.61$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.02 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 76c | 33.06$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.06 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0461…fcbcbacked No | 75c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 724 | 66.2%479 W · 245 L | +33.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0832…8681backed No | 63c | 22$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.14 | 346 | 51.2%177 W · 169 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc393…66f9backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.06 | 129 | 32.6%42 W · 87 L | -8.9wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ef…f2b4backed No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 37 | 64.9%24 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 69cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x131d…2a50backed No | 70c | 18.36$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.51 | 103 | 35.9%37 W · 66 L | -15.3wins | -0.15per pick | 51cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x243f…589ebacked No | 75c | 16.16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.04 | 68 | 66.2%45 W · 23 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed No | 75c | 15.55$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.89 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x095b…8a05backed No | 78c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.25 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ced…7ce8backed No | 73c | 14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.8 | 137 | 48.2%66 W · 71 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb93…735cbacked No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 80cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 29°C on March 12?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 25°C or below on March 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 26°C on March 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 27°C on March 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 28°C on March 12?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 30°C on March 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 31°C on March 12?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.