Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 28°C on March 12?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4740d9d5f430876dddc2ad73976a5d8e7b78b13065ff7f71dff55b9b2ed1c944
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,461
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,461 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 70 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdd8a…edf9backed Yes | 49c | 465.55$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238.38 | 76 | 38.2%29 W · 47 L | -8.0wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 47c | 442.98$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.5 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 27c | 420.2$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$306.01 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed No | 12c | 345.36$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.31 | 597 | 42%251 W · 346 L | +96.8wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 68c | 256.44$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.89 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 35c | 230$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.5 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb01…43bbbacked Yes | 28c | 199.59$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.76 | 739 | 27.3%202 W · 537 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8781…88c0backed Yes | 61c | 180.26$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.95 | 325 | 48.6%158 W · 167 L | +11.8wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4df8…4005backed No | 42c | 176.47$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.12 | 108 | 41.7%45 W · 63 L | -3.8wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe34…8ee7backed No | 69c | 139$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.52 | 163 | 55.2%90 W · 73 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3c0…8032backed No | 68c | 131.78$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -4.0wins | -0.17per pick | 65cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4e3c…eba1backed No | 67c | 131.51$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.84 | 134 | 53.7%72 W · 62 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 28c | 125.02$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.55 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 25c | 117.37$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.8 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 69c | 114.09$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.2 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a38…ada9backed Yes | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 236 | 33.1%78 W · 158 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefae…3acebacked Yes | 29c | 100$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71 | 268 | 27.2%73 W · 195 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 45c | 97.34$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.48 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd98d…1179backed Yes | 49c | 90$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.74 | 232 | 31%72 W · 160 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a5…e304backed Yes | 74c | 90$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 36c | 90$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.6 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb608…881ebacked Yes | 35c | 89.99$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.59 | 188 | 42.6%80 W · 108 L | +7.4wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 74c | 85.61$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.04 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 41c | 75.33$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.61 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9f9e…9ec0backed Yes | 40c | 75$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.18 | 90 | 46.7%42 W · 48 L | +5.7wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe1d9…5dc8backed Yes | 63c | 74.97$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +3.1wins | +0.16per pick | 42cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 29c | 74.82$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.3 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe712…9a10backed Yes | 25c | 72.77$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.27 | 868 | 47.7%414 W · 454 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8ae3…3401backed No | 70c | 71.21$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.02 | 274 | 63.9%175 W · 99 L | -15.0wins | -0.05per pick | 69cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc437…0f42backed Yes | 46c | 69.42$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.42 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | -2.8wins | -0.10per pick | 37cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x279e…5994backed Yes | 46c | 65.92$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.42 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 32c | 65$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.25 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 34c | 61.33$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.92 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 33c | 60.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.7 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 34c | 60$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.34 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc323…a9cabacked No | 71c | 56.5$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.12 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a42…8da8backed No | 70c | 56.17$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.2 | 388 | 40.7%158 W · 230 L | -14.9wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4b40…96e3backed No | 68c | 56.03$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.1 | 522 | 45%235 W · 287 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3bba…a2eabacked Yes | 54c | 56$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.76 | 182 | 55.5%101 W · 81 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x858b…a2cebacked Yes | 48c | 55$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.7 | 171 | 44.4%76 W · 95 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6077…8a56backed Yes | 78c | 52.43$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.43 | 109 | 56.9%62 W · 47 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fce…36edbacked Yes | 25c | 50.26$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.76 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 16cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11d6…25ffbacked No | 65c | 50$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 58cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ef9…3f42backed Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 45cpaid | -32%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8ed7…bb28backed Yes | 29c | 49.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.49 | 128 | 28.1%36 W · 92 L | +8.5wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 49.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 58c | 48.78$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.06 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed No | 29c | 44.63$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.81 | 353 | 23.2%82 W · 271 L | -16.4wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b4c…efa9backed Yes | 56c | 42.2$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.74 | 122 | 30.3%37 W · 85 L | -11.5wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 70c | 42$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.4 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac24…576ebacked Yes | 59c | 41.79$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.93 | 233 | 34.3%80 W · 153 L | -6.6wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b8…4bdfbacked No | 28c | 41.01$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.41 | 342 | 19.9%68 W · 274 L | +18.6wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 75c | 40.99$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.56 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7deb…7c0abacked Yes | 25c | 40.11$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.08 | 156 | 26.3%41 W · 115 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x14f4…5944backed No | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 35 | 31.4%11 W · 24 L | +2.9wins | +0.08per pick | 23cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 49c | 39.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.43 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x65c4…7ea4backed Yes | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.09 | 559 | 42.6%238 W · 321 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfced…03d9backed Yes | 70c | 30.73$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.22 | 101 | 41.6%42 W · 59 L | +7.6wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +82%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbe63…2de4backed Yes | 54c | 27.54$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.54 | 115 | 46.1%53 W · 62 L | -5.4wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0408…3d68backed Yes | 59c | 26.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 212 | 62.3%132 W · 80 L | +20.9wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9b25…51eebacked Yes | 60c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 67 | 53.7%36 W · 31 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa74c…a7a4backed Yes | 51c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.14 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9c7…c6a2backed No | 60c | 22$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x243f…589ebacked No | 67c | 21.9$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.67 | 68 | 66.2%45 W · 23 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9da…ed70backed No | 70c | 20.58$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.41 | 763 | 71.4%545 W · 218 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x449d…e576backed No | 64c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -2.5wins | -0.18per pick | 46cpaid | -53.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 68c | 19.11$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.06 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xe8ab…823bbacked No | 57c | 18.52$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.61 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8bab…72ddbacked No | 71c | 17.82$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.58 | 75 | 61.3%46 W · 29 L | -5.9wins | -0.08per pick | 69cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa4…fc3dbacked No | 74c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 277 | 56%155 W · 122 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 28°C on March 12?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 25°C or below on March 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 26°C on March 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 27°C on March 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 29°C on March 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 30°C on March 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 31°C on March 12?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.