TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

World Politics · resolved market

Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election by 9% or more?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$20,970
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$23,008

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,970 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 110 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in World Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x2b9d…adc0backed Yes36c2,020$725 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,294.4213444.8%60 W · 74 L+17.1wins+0.13per pick32cpaid+13.3%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No55c1,644$901 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$901.1652850.8%268 W · 260 L+20.9wins+0.04per pick47cpaid-11.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7879…822abacked Yes51c1,025$524 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$500.962842.9%12 W · 16 L-1.6wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-20%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1e9c…1115backed No64c1,016$650 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6505520%11 W · 44 L+2.9wins+0.05per pick15cpaid+86.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x629b…995abacked Yes40c809.67$323 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$486.7343243.1%186 W · 246 L+29.2wins+0.07per pick36cpaid-7.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1d5f…634dbacked Yes37c562.17$209 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$353.513444.1%15 W · 19 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-22.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x80c6…e3c1backed No51c529.41$270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2702544%11 W · 14 L+2.7wins+0.11per pick33cpaid+9.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe605…ac5fbacked No47c514.91$243 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$243.076741.8%28 W · 39 L+8.1wins+0.12per pick30cpaid+7.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x9182…3368backed No62c503.24$310 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3104623.9%11 W · 35 L-2.8wins-0.06per pick30cpaid-52.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc392…511bbacked No59c431.92$254 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$253.751827.8%5 W · 13 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick30cpaid-36.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc71b…e265backed No52c409.04$214 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$214.2122029.5%65 W · 155 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick28cpaid+7.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes39c400$154 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24654934.6%190 W · 359 L-37.0wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-27.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1104…002abacked Yes77c363.26$278 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.073135.5%11 W · 20 L+0.1wins0.00per pick35cpaid-22.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No63c345.17$219 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$218.7288448.5%429 W · 455 L-2.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid-6.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x892b…6721backed Yes49c338.21$166 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$172.21520%1 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-59.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6b44…be1ebacked Yes35c321.14$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$207.24650%23 W · 23 L+3.9wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+18%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x87ed…0055backed No62c311.31$194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$194.354330.2%13 W · 30 L-3.0wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-30.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6291…cc47backed Yes47c301.6$142 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$159.9428434.2%97 W · 187 L+5.2wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-8.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3e9b…a0ecbacked Yes47c267.67$126 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$141.832544%11 W · 14 L-1.4wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-17.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7e35…1a6cbacked No34c266.03$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.3626139.8%104 W · 157 L+16.3wins+0.06per pick34cpaid+32.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xf636…b088backed Yes25c247.98$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$186.942138.1%8 W · 13 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-20.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5efb…55a1backed Yes58c236.67$138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.041258.3%7 W · 5 L+1.1wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+12.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0bf3…f2fabacked Yes22c227.48$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$177.48742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.11per pick31cpaid+31.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No53c211.16$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.2134354.8%188 W · 155 L-1.5wins0.00per pick55cpaid-12%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No48c210$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.739952.4%209 W · 190 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-13.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7119…7132backed No49c204.08$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3cd7…6d2dbacked Yes25c204$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$154757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+19.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4b40…e937backed No54c195.42$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.873644.4%16 W · 20 L-0.1wins0.00per pick45cpaid-13.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x155e…69b7backed Yes51c174.09$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.84924.5%12 W · 37 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-10.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1f9e…4f1abacked No49c163.72$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.239850%49 W · 49 L+16.1wins+0.16per pick34cpaid+40.4%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0xf5e4…471abacked Yes18c163.72$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$134.2515022.7%34 W · 116 L+8.6wins+0.06per pick17cpaid+43%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1513…831abacked Yes63c159.62$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.623528.6%10 W · 25 L-4.6wins-0.13per pick42cpaid-52.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xcd91…32b8backed No12c151$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.3516051.9%83 W · 77 L+3.4wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb5aa…c200backed No20c150$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.72441.7%10 W · 14 L+1.9wins+0.08per pick34cpaid+17.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xeba1…44dfbacked Yes46c150$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$811100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.54per pick46cpaid+117.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb0d6…7475backed No17c142.49$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.813748.2%66 W · 71 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-15.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbd14…76b4backed No52c142$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.2414637%54 W · 92 L-0.3wins0.00per pick37cpaid-15%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8444…1cf9backed Yes25c139.99$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.398142%34 W · 47 L-0.3wins0.00per pick42cpaid+9.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6f26…93bcbacked Yes19c135.79$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.992100%2 W · 0 L+1.4wins+0.68per pick32cpaid+274.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No34c127$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.0539414%55 W · 339 L-71.9wins-0.18per pick32cpaid-73.1%equal weight31-0.17 edge/pick
0xd9b5…9db1backed No24c123.09$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.7112249.2%60 W · 62 L0.0wins0.00per pick49cpaid-9.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes48c113.54$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.411,31843.9%579 W · 739 L-26.8wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-13%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked No64c112$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.9332354.2%175 W · 148 L+6.2wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+5.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0490…c81fbacked Yes48c105$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.1514330.8%44 W · 99 L+3.3wins+0.02per pick28cpaid+104.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked Yes36c101.03$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.9846330.2%140 W · 323 L-20.4wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-19%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x720f…d430backed Yes18c100$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$821070%7 W · 3 L+1.2wins+0.12per pick58cpaid+56.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9578…f066backed No76c100$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$768657%49 W · 37 L+6.4wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+25.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x64a0…9d96backed Yes19c99.99$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.8wins+0.10per pick28cpaid+49.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8144…8472backed Yes51c96.11$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.541560%9 W · 6 L+1.0wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+33.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd7e0…c1bbbacked No59c92$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.282254.5%12 W · 10 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+7.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x18dc…5e90backed No52c90.22$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.741526.7%4 W · 11 L-1.3wins-0.09per pick35cpaid-22.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x942e…be27backed No55c89.92$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.1418762.6%117 W · 70 L+6.0wins+0.03per pick59cpaid+4.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd1a6…1507backed No57c88.44$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.0814656.2%82 W · 64 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-16.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe347…b438backed No40c87$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.229254.3%50 W · 42 L+2.9wins+0.03per pick51cpaid-7.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2b59…9db6backed No23c84.56$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.315355.6%85 W · 68 L+3.7wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+6.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc518…2594backed No40c80.17$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.9518348.6%89 W · 94 L-0.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x736b…2e90backed Yes51c79.98$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.19560%3 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+8.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No32c77.09$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.2931152.4%163 W · 148 L-12.4wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-14.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x095b…8a05backed Yes52c74$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.521827.8%5 W · 13 L-2.9wins-0.16per pick44cpaid-51.2%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x7495…7fcfbacked No49c73.84$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.8619315.5%30 W · 163 L-5.3wins-0.03per pick18cpaid-20.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked No54c71.47$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.5724637.4%92 W · 154 L-4.3wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-30.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x90c8…dc8fbacked Yes28c71.43$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.43250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.20per pick30cpaid+78.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6cdb…8a82backed Yes52c70.01$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.31933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.1wins-0.12per pick45cpaid-41.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No59c65$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.2136055.3%199 W · 161 L0.0wins0.00per pick55cpaid-3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2f26…0d8fbacked Yes35c64$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.61346.2%6 W · 7 L+1.9wins+0.15per pick31cpaid+9.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x27ab…e521backed No77c56.12$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.077058.6%41 W · 29 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-11.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc602…7fc1backed No56c56.12$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.431635.1%111 W · 205 L-11.1wins-0.04per pick39cpaid+6.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe1a9…339ebacked No22c50$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112425%6 W · 18 L0.0wins0.00per pick25cpaid+4.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4e87…4f64backed No74c50$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3710%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.74per pick74cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6d13…e682backed Yes25c50$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.53100%3 W · 0 L+1.7wins+0.58per pick42cpaid+195%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb528…9f54backed Yes25c50$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.5250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.25per pick26cpaid+100%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf225…cc69backed Yes53c50$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.5771.4%5 W · 2 L+2.2wins+0.31per pick40cpaid+55.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x6406…bc04backed No67c50$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.53661.1%22 W · 14 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick65cpaid-0.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0e32…535bbacked Yes42c49.99$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.9928430.3%86 W · 198 L+0.8wins0.00per pick30cpaid-29.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x511f…cbe1backed No56c47.32$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.510646.2%49 W · 57 L0.0wins0.00per pick46cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2e91…a1b7backed Yes49c45.51$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.011118.2%2 W · 9 L-2.0wins-0.18per pick36cpaid-69.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x3a86…dea8backed No73c45.3$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.0748224.7%119 W · 363 L-7.6wins-0.02per pick26cpaid-25.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x758b…0a1cbacked No55c43.93$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.248643%37 W · 49 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-10.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeaa9…1737backed No47c43$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.2110243.1%44 W · 58 L-6.1wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-17.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4f1d…8de2backed No54c40.62$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.7515558.7%91 W · 64 L+0.8wins0.00per pick58cpaid-8.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0b6b…280bbacked No74c40.31$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.920%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7373…7701backed Yes33c40$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.87135.2%25 W · 46 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-11%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7df6…ac3bbacked No41c40$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.413139.7%52 W · 79 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-10.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x69f0…fb27backed No75c40$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.115954.1%86 W · 73 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-7.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No38c38.99$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.9428558.9%168 W · 117 L+14.0wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+0.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xed0c…178abacked No75c35$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.2520%0 W · 2 L-1.5wins-0.75per pick75cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x1b3d…b7f1backed Yes52c34.99$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.81216.7%2 W · 10 L-2.5wins-0.21per pick38cpaid-64.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xf33e…0ab8backed Yes49c34.49$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.595552.7%29 W · 26 L-2.3wins-0.04per pick57cpaid-6.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0386…e95ebacked No48c33.33$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16650%3 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-19.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9a75…02d3backed No55c32.71$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18520%1 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.16per pick36cpaid-71.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No79c30$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.720065%130 W · 70 L+12.7wins+0.06per pick59cpaid+11.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x0787…0ca3backed Yes45c30$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.51776.5%13 W · 4 L+5.3wins+0.31per pick45cpaid+53.6%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0x264a…c8b0backed No75c30$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.510%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.75per pick75cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcfff…673dbacked No58c30$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.426355.9%147 W · 116 L-4.4wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa99f…b306backed No48c28$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.442025%5 W · 15 L-3.8wins-0.19per pick44cpaid-50.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x081a…66d0backed No79c25$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.7514225.4%36 W · 106 L-8.0wins-0.06per pick31cpaid-20.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x16c7…22cdbacked No74c25$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.4716450.6%83 W · 81 L+0.8wins0.00per pick50cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked No60c25$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1523459.8%140 W · 94 L-5.2wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-6.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5146…ac5ebacked No51c23.24$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.920%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb842…330ebacked No48c21.99$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.56862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.6wins+0.20per pick42cpaid+42.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.