World Politics · resolved market
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election by between 3% and 6%?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdba270dd6b3f42281d1002cc9b821bfea90a5310cc05436e2fc0c71936001031
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,882
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,431
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,882 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7879…822abacked Yes | 18c | 761.04$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.32 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2110…5850backed Yes | 12c | 500$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87ed…0055backed Yes | 15c | 444.19$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.08 | 43 | 30.2%13 W · 30 L | -3.0wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f46…2cd1backed Yes | 18c | 274.59$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 5c | 271.2$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.54 | 394 | 14%55 W · 339 L | -71.9wins | -0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -73.1%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xf769…0114backed Yes | 11c | 244.99$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.95 | 53 | 30.2%16 W · 37 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9182…3368backed Yes | 18c | 228.19$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 46 | 23.9%11 W · 35 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x54c6…e5c2backed Yes | 12c | 222.68$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.61 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…e8f8backed Yes | 14c | 200$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.82 | 133 | 43.6%58 W · 75 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d01…1645backed Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 120 | 29.2%35 W · 85 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +49.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6291…cc47backed Yes | 12c | 200$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 284 | 34.2%97 W · 187 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f9e…4f1abacked Yes | 12c | 168.39$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.21 | 98 | 50%49 W · 49 L | +16.1wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +40.4%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 13c | 155.14$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.92 | 193 | 15.5%30 W · 163 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7e0…c1bbbacked Yes | 19c | 132$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.08 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x758b…0a1cbacked Yes | 13c | 131.74$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.93 | 86 | 43%37 W · 49 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc01f…cd8ebacked Yes | 23c | 110.14$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 70 | 27.1%19 W · 51 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e35…1a6cbacked Yes | 11c | 102.6$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.02 | 261 | 39.8%104 W · 157 L | +16.3wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf636…b088backed Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 18c | 98.36$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.7 | 549 | 34.6%190 W · 359 L | -37.0wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 79c | 72.26$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.92 | 146 | 56.2%82 W · 64 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x747b…a2d4backed Yes | 20c | 65.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.12 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -24%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf1b…8306backed Yes | 24c | 57.35$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -2.4wins | -0.12per pick | 40cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 79c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 168 | 50.6%85 W · 83 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election by between 3% and 6%?this page
- Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election by 9% or more?Yes won
- Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election by between 6% and 9%?No won
- Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election by less than 3%?No won
- Will Robert Kenyon win the 2026 Makerfield by-election by 6% or more?No won
- Will Robert Kenyon win the 2026 Makerfield by-election by between 3% and 6%?No won
- Will Robert Kenyon win the 2026 Makerfield by-election by less than 3%?No won
- Will another outcome occur in the 2026 Makerfield by-election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.